UK local by-elections, 2024

[MaxQue]

A cousin of "Canada 1993" was "Quebec 2011" federally, i.e. nobody would have guessed that Ahuntsic would have been one of the 4 Bloc Quebecois survivors...

Of those 4 seats, Richelieu is the only one held by the Bloc at every election since 1993.
Matane did vote for the Liberals in 2015.
Ahuntsic was Liberal held from 1997 to 2006 and since 2015.
Arthabaska was PC held from 1997 to 2004 and Conservative since 2015 (well, the MP is now an Independent in protest of Poilievre's leadership).

[Vosem]

A cousin of "Canada 1993" was "Quebec 2011" federally, i.e. nobody would have guessed that Ahuntsic would have been one of the 4 Bloc Quebecois survivors...

Of those 4 seats, Richelieu is the only one held by the Bloc at every election since 1993.
Matane did vote for the Liberals in 2015.
Ahuntsic was Liberal held from 1997 to 2006 and since 2015.
Arthabaska was PC held from 1997 to 2004 and Conservative since 2015 (well, the MP is now an Independent in protest of Poilievre's leadership).

The last three consecutive MPs from Richmond--Arthabaska -- Andre Bachand, Andre Bellavance, and Alain Rayes -- all left their parties when they became too extreme, which isn't an unheard of thing in Canadian politics to be sure, but three in a row from the same seat is kind of impressive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does a strong association with the asbestos industry lead to places developing the weirdest possible political histories? Consider also Rochdale.

[Vosem]

Does a strong association with the asbestos industry lead to places developing the weirdest possible political histories? Consider also Rochdale.

Sverdlovsk Oblast's very strong favorite son effect for Yeltsin also feels appropriate to mention.

[YL]

Thursday 29 February

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Special)

East Riding of Yorkshire; Minster & Woodmansley

Lib Dem 1438 (50.7%, +8.6)
Con 706 (24.9%, -1.9)
Lab 495 (17.4%, -9.4)
Green 198 (7.0%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

East Riding of Yorkshire; Tranby

Lib Dem 958 (55.3%, +4.4)
Lab 408 (23.6%, +2.7)
Con 268 (15.5%, -4.2)
Green 97 (5.6%, -2.9)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Great Yarmouth; Central & Northgate

Lab 482 (52.6%, +6.2)
Con 296 (32.3%, +7.7)
Lib Dem 139 (15.2%, +3.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

Horsham; Henfield

Green 668 (44.2%, +18.8
Con 569 (37.7%, +13.0)
Lab 215 (14.2%, -5.2)
Lib Dem 59 (3.9%, -2.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green gain from Ind; ward now 1 Green, 1 Con

Horsham; Southwater North

Con 618 (49.0%, +11.1)
Lib Dem 388 (30.8%, -13.0)
Green 162 (12.9%, +3.9)
Lab 92 (7.3%, -2.0)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from Lib Dem; ward now 1 Lib Dem, 1 Con

[CumbrianLefty]

Surprisingly strong Tory result - and unexpected gain - in one of the Horsham contests.

(which was apparently, and really not as surprisingly, partly motivated by Nimbyism)

[Torrain]

We've got an interesting by-election coming up in Glasgow's West End this week, trigged by the death of Labour councillor Hanzala Malik earlier this year. It's a Green Party ward, so this could be the first time the Scottish Greens ever gain a council seat via byelection. SNP came in second in 2022, Labour in third.

The lead Green candidate in normal elections is a well-respected local councillor, so curious to see how they fare without her personal vote. They'll probably still win, but interesting to see whether Labour can tighten the margin (and try for second place) - or whether Glasgow Uni's presence in the ward means they'll lose a few points over certain Middle East issues.

[YL]

This week has a Wednesday one:

Wednesday 6 March

Andrew Teale's preview

Carmarthenshire; Elli

Ind Williams 211 (33.9%, new)
Con 151 (24.2%, +16.4)
Lab 145 (23.3%, -3.4)
Plaid 48 (7.7%, -2.7)
UKIP 27 (4.3%, new)
Ind Burdess 23 (3.7%, new)
Lib Dem 16 (2.6%, new)
Gwlad 2 (0.3%, new)
(changes from 2022)

"Ind hold"

[YL]

Thursday 7 March

Andrew Teale's preview

Mayor of Lewisham

Lab 21576 (51.5%, -6.5)
Green 6835 (16.3%, +0.3)
Lib Dem 4896 (11.7%, +1.9)
Con 3784 (9.1%, -2.5)
Workers Party of Britain 2378 (5.7%, new)
Christian People's Alliance 1233 (2.9%, +1.4)
Ind Long 917 (2.2%, new)
(changes from 2022; NB that was SV, though decided on the first count, and this was FPTP)

Lab hold

Glasgow; Hillhead

First preferences:
Lab 1298 (31.9%, +9.7)
Green 1284 (31.5%, -4.7)
SNP 1015 (24.9%, -3.7)
Con 217 (5.3%, -1.4)
Independent Green Voice 133 (3.3%, new)
Lib Dem 106 (2.6%, -2.8)
Ind McGinley 22 (0.5%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Count 6:
Green 1908
Lab 1721

Green gain from Lab; ward now 2 Green, 1 SNP
(morally a Green hold, as they'd have won a single member election in 2022)

Bridgend; Aberkenfig

Lab 291 (55.2%, +26.3)
Ind Richards 236 (44.8%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from Plaid who did not defend the seat

Mid Devon; Upper Yeo & Taw

Lib Dem 405 (52.2%, +10.9)
Con 226 (29.1%, -14.4)
Lab 91 (11.7%, -3.6)
Green 54 (7.0%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Lib Dem

[CumbrianLefty]

Two votes <snicker>

[YL]

Two votes <snicker>

Gwlad are a curious outfit, though not one the electorate seem to be particularly curious about.

[YL]

Hillhead is the Scottish Greens' first ever by-election win. Undoubtably this would have been no change (1 Green, 1 Lab, 1 SNP) for a 3 seat STV election.

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's usual plot of the transfers:

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour can overall be pleased with this week's results, despite the Hillhead loss - which still saw them increasing their vote in line with most recent Scottish byelections.

Greens might have hoped for slightly better in the Lewisham mayoral election? Looks like the LibDems (who fielded a veteran campaigner) might have stolen a bit of their thunder.

[Blair]

Labour can overall be pleased with this week's results, despite the Hillhead loss - which still saw them increasing their vote in line with most recent Scottish byelections.

Greens might have hoped for slightly better in the Lewisham mayoral election? Looks like the LibDems (who fielded a veteran campaigner) might have stolen a bit of their thunder.

WPBG got 5% too- I think they focused on Gaza.

Was the thinking behind having mayors in places like Lewisham that Labour will basically always win a top two vote system even if they end up seeing their councillors lose to various different parties?

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour can overall be pleased with this week's results, despite the Hillhead loss - which still saw them increasing their vote in line with most recent Scottish byelections.

Greens might have hoped for slightly better in the Lewisham mayoral election? Looks like the LibDems (who fielded a veteran campaigner) might have stolen a bit of their thunder.

WPBG got 5% too- I think they focused on Gaza.

Was the thinking behind having mayors in places like Lewisham that Labour will basically always win a top two vote system even if they end up seeing their councillors lose to various different parties?

After polls closed, their candidate said something to the effect of "anybody voting for the main parties supported genocide" - such a charming bunch eh.

[YL]

Thursday 14 March

Andrew Teale's preview

Wiltshire; Cricklade & Latton

Lib Dem 1030 (76.0%, +13.9)
Con 253 (18.7%, -19.2)
Lab 45 (3.3%, new)
Green 27 (2.0%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

Lancaster; Castle

Green 524 (65.0%, +6.2)
Lab 212 (26.3%, -3.0)
Con 43 (5.3%, -1.8)
Lib Dem 27 (3.3%, -1.7)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green hold

[YL]

Not the most interesting week, but I imagine the Lib Dem candidate for South Cotswolds enjoyed it.

Warning: I may not be able to post these for the next couple of weeks so would appreciate it if someone could fill in.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just a minor quibble - the percentages in Lancaster add up to 100.4% I think?

[YL]

Just a minor quibble - the percentages in Lancaster add up to 100.4% I think?

Fixed.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thursday 28 March

Andrew Teale’s preview

Cambridgeshire; Yaxley & Farcet

Lib Dem 509 (31.0%, +5.6)
Con 470 (28.6%, -28.3)
Ind Howell 448 (27.3%, new)
Lab 175 (10.6%, -7.1)
Green 42 (2.6%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

North Kesteven; Heckington Rural

Con 425 (33.7%, -26.9)
Lincs Inds 369 (29.2%, new)
Lib Dem 345 (27.3%, new)
Lab 123 (9.7%, -29.6)
(changes from 2022)

Con hold

Knowsley; Whitefield

Ind Johns 659 (54.5%, new)
Lab 558 (45.5%, -7.0)
(changes from 2023)

Ind Johns gain from Ind Guy; ward now 2 Ind 1 Lab

Flintshire; Brynford and Halkyn

Lab 329 (36.6%, -3.1)
Con 287 (32.0%, +1.8 )
Lib Dem 98 (10.9%, new)
Green 95 (10.6%, new)
Ind Dickin 53 (5.9%, new)
Ind Johnson 36 (4.0%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab gain from Con; ward now 2 Lab

[Torrain]

Thanks for stepping in, happy to take a turn with next week’s contests, if you’d like.

[Duke of York]

even though there are by elections every week until the 24th of April it seems Teale won't be posting for all of them. I wonder why.

He said this in the Yaxley and Farcet writeup: We’re now on the glidepath down to May’s ordinary local elections across England and Wales, and although there is enough material for a column every week up until 2nd May the actual content for the next month or so will be a little sparse. Partly because of this, and partly because there aren’t as many Conservative councillors as there used to be, there are just four Conservative by-election defences pencilled in before the ordinary local elections on 2nd May.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think that is a statement he "won't be posting" on the coming byelections - just that there are not as many of them in the run up to May, as is quite normal. Though having said that there are a few even on the previous Thursday (April 25) which hasn't always been the case in recent years.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Thanks for stepping in, happy to take a turn with next week’s contests, if you’d like.

I'm more than happy to fill in till YL is free again. Only takes a few minutes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories hold one seat, and almost another, despite big drops in their vote due to evenly split opposition.