How much will Biden get in the West Virginia primary?

[Compuzled_One]

So, Biden took New Hampshire for the first time in his life as we all know. With Phillips just below 20% and South Carolina coming up, this is likely the end of the road to any nomination troubles for Biden...bar West Virginia, which still has a decent chunk of conservative dems that love coal and really hate Obama alongside anyone and anything that's associated with him in any way. Hate Obama so much that a convicted felon got just over 40% against him in 2012, Hillary got blown out by a socialist in 2016, and Biden himself only got 65% in 2020 while being the only major candidate left.

Now, it's time to once again see the strength of the remaining Demosaurs. Evidently, they've likely grown weaker given Manchin's lack of success and the decrease of protest votes after 2012, but there's probably still a bunch of conservatives with old Democrat ID's lying around.

My personal prediction is Biden gets 70% or so, a little higher than in 2020 when he kinda had official challengers and wasn't an incumbent, but before his presidency and continuation of most Obama policies. Whoever gets their name second place on the ballots in the most places probably takes 20% of the vote and four delegates. Also, I feel Biden'll likely take every county regardless, except maybe a tiny loss in Mingo.

[The Mikado]

West Virginia's neighbor Kentucky has Uncommitted on the ballot and I could see it hitting viability 15% in KY and getting delegates.

[Compuzled_One]

West Virginia's neighbor Kentucky has Uncommitted on the ballot and I could see it hitting viability 15% in KY and getting delegates.

Right, forgot Kentucky also has a pretty low opinion of Obama and Biden, if not to the same extent.

[Santander]

So you guys are admitting racism isn't why Obama did poorly in WV...

[Compuzled_One]

If by "you guys", you mean Democrats, I ain't a Democrat. I don't like most of Obama's policies much either, even if I think he's a decent man, a good campaigner, and did have some good ideas.

Also, racism probably had a teensy bit of influence, but yeah, I do feel it was minimal compared to coal related reasons and restricted mostly to some hicks in the most southern counties, especially since Paul T. Farrell Jr. described his grievances as stemming from coal and the voters had no way of knowing Judd was white.

[Lief 🗽]

I think about 70% is right. Most of the true DINOs have switched parties or died at this point.

[The Mikado]

WV Dem primary ballot:

Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Jason Michael Palmer
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato
Dean Phillips


No locals.

[Eraserhead]

He isn't black so he'll at least do better than Obama did.

[Compuzled_One]

WV Dem primary ballot:

Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Jason Michael Palmer
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato
Dean Phillips


No locals.

I guess Palmer will get the most votes by being alphabetically first.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So you guys are admitting racism isn't why Obama did poorly in WV...

In retrospect, Obama didn't even do that badly in 2008: he "only" lost it by 13 points, got 42% of the vote, and carried multiple counties, something no Democrat could do now.

[The Mikado]

So you guys are admitting racism isn't why Obama did poorly in WV...

In retrospect, Obama didn't even do that badly in 2008: he "only" lost it by 13 points, got 42% of the vote, and carried multiple counties, something no Democrat could do now.

Clinton beat him by 41 points and won every single county. Obama's second-worst state in the primary beaten only by Arkansas. He got slaughtered there.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

So you guys are admitting racism isn't why Obama did poorly in WV...

In retrospect, Obama didn't even do that badly in 2008: he "only" lost it by 13 points, got 42% of the vote, and carried multiple counties, something no Democrat could do now.

Clinton beat him by 41 points and won every single county. Obama's second-worst state in the primary beaten only by Arkansas. He got slaughtered there.

The general, not the primary. The primary was very much a blow out.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

Pretty sure this might be one of Dean Phillips' better chances at a good showing. I think - especially with Joe Manchin retiring from the Senate and still flirting with a "I'll run if Biden's health declines" candidacy - Biden finishes with a 2012 Obama primary-esque showing (winning but with a relatively poor for an incumbent showing).

[JMT]

Bumping this thread

The primary is today… what do people think? How does Biden do in WV tonight?

[Sir Mohamed]

Wild guess: 63%

[Zenobiyl]

71%

[ꙮ]

80 is my guess. This primary is over and the Conservadems are mostly dead or Republicans at this point. Uncommitted isn’t an option. Also no locals or conservatives on the ballot either.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He will probably get in the low 80s.

[Compuzled_One]

Bumping this thread

The primary is today… what do people think? How does Biden do in WV tonight?

70%. I don't think the vote consolidates enough for one opponent to win delegates, since there's four others on the ballot, but who knows.

[Compuzled_One]

80 is my guess. This primary is over and the Conservadems are mostly dead or Republicans at this point. Uncommitted isn’t an option. Also no locals or conservatives on the ballot either.

The reason Obama got relatively low percentages is because ancestral Dems used the others to vent their frustration in place of uncommitted. Also, there were no locals or conservatives on the ballot in 2012, while Lyons is on the ballot and is the latter.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No matter what he gets people will doom about it.

[Zenobiyl]

I think about 70% is right. Most of the true DINOs have switched parties or died at this point.

71%

70%. I don't think the vote consolidates enough for one opponent to win delegates, since there's four others on the ballot, but who knows.

Right on the money