Summer Lee vs. Bhavini Patel

[Horus]

Pennsylvania congressional primaries are tonight and Summer Lee, one of the more pragmatic members of the Squad, has a challenge in Bhavini Patel. Who will win?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Safe Lee.

[S019]

Hoping for Patel, but I’m not optimistic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'll be shocked if Lee doesn't win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lee by ~10-12%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lee by ~10-12%

I don't see it being that close.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Lee. She's been smart in laying low especially considering the Conflict

[wnwnwn]

Patel would be easily the favorite with enought investment and the right campaing, but this isnt the case. Lee is favored, altrought she will probably be primaried again in 2024 (likely by a white candidate).

[Tintrlvr]

Lee and it won't be close. At least a 20-point margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

LikeLee Lee.

[Minnesota Mike]

Lee up 10% in 38% in after Allegheny dump.

[Malarkey Decider]

Lee up 10% in 38% in after Allegheny dump.

She wins if Allegheny ED vote is similar to this. However, if it is a lot closer, Westmoreland could put Patel over the top.

[Minnesota Mike]

Lee up 10% in 38% in after Allegheny dump.

She wins if Allegheny ED vote is similar to this. However, if it is a lot closer, Westmoreland could put Patel over the top.

IIRC Lee came from behind winning with the ED vote in 2022.

[Gracile]

I expect the Allegheny E-Day vote to be considerably stronger for Lee, so I think she's in good shape to win.

[Dr. Cynic]

I voted for Lee via mail-in. I don't expect any surprises.

She wins if Allegheny ED vote is similar to this. However, if it is a lot closer, Westmoreland could put Patel over the top.

There's no evidence of that, especially with Lee having the backing of Pittsburgh's Democratic machine, which she did not have in her race against Irwin.

[Continential]

Looking at the Early Vote, Lee is doing well in the suburbs which voted massively for Irwin last time. Really, the only place I see Patel improving in is the Squirrel Hill neighborhood in Pittsburgh.

[Minnesota Mike]

Lee is crushing in the ED vote in Allegheny. This ones going to be a 20%+ margin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She won the VBM vote in the Westmoreland county portion of the district. She'll probably crack 65% in the end.

EDIT: Nvm

[wnwnwn]

Looking at the Early Vote, Lee is doing well in the suburbs which voted massively for Irwin last time. Really, the only place I see Patel improving in is the Squirrel Hill neighborhood in Pittsburgh.

Where are you seeing that?

Lee will liekly win, but the amount and how may show some things.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AP calls it for Lee. Currently leads Patel 59-41% with 56% in.

[coloradocowboi]

If it doesn’t work in Pittsburgh, their most demographically favorable district, it’s not going to work so AIPAC need to stop targeting women of color with contentious primaries when they are on the losing end of this issue. Summer Lee has condemned Hamas. She has condemned anti-semitism on college campuses. People in her district were smart enough to see the plain truth that criticizing Israel is not anti-semitism, and neither is asking for high moral standards from “the only democracy in the Middle East.” If they go out of their way to make this the central issue in Bush and Bowman’s races, let alone Tlaib’s and Omar’s, AIPAC will guarantee an intact Squad in November.

[Horus]

If it doesn’t work in Pittsburgh, their most demographically favorable district, it’s not going to work so AIPAC need to stop targeting women of color with contentious primaries when they are on the losing end of this issue. Summer Lee has condemned Hamas. She has condemned anti-semitism on college campuses. People in her district were smart enough to see the plain truth that criticizing Israel is not anti-semitism, and neither is asking for high moral standards from “the only democracy in the Middle East.” If they go out of their way to make this the central issue in Bush and Bowman’s races, let alone Tlaib’s and Omar’s, AIPAC will guarantee an intact Squad in November.

Agreed, but I think there's a strong case to be made that Bowman's district is less favorable.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If it doesn’t work in Pittsburgh, their most demographically favorable district, it’s not going to work so AIPAC need to stop targeting women of color with contentious primaries when they are on the losing end of this issue. Summer Lee has condemned Hamas. She has condemned anti-semitism on college campuses. People in her district were smart enough to see the plain truth that criticizing Israel is not anti-semitism, and neither is asking for high moral standards from “the only democracy in the Middle East.” If they go out of their way to make this the central issue in Bush and Bowman’s races, let alone Tlaib’s and Omar’s, AIPAC will guarantee an intact Squad in November.

Agreed, but I think there's a strong case to be made that Bowman's district is less favorable.

Both Bowman and Bush have actually made a lot of recent faux pas that put their seats in play. Lee has been semi-low-key as a Squad member and DMFI never chose to get involved here.

I don't think they ever even polled this district, which says a lot on how much on the party's radar it was.

[kyc0705]

It's also worth remembering that Bush has another problem that could really hurt her, completely separate from ideological squabbles in the party.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It's also worth remembering that Bush has another problem that could really hurt her, completely separate from ideological squabbles in the party.

Which is?