NV: Pro-Trump group internal (Trump +5) and GOP group internal (Biden +1)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1790025097832522186

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Is Biden +1 like campaign internals

[DrScholl]

If biased GOP polls that definitely weight by party ID are showing less crazy numbers then you know the Times is doing something suspicious with their polls.

[wbrocks67]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

[President Johnson]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Yeah, it's definitely a tossup, but if I had to guess, Biden takes it in the end.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Yeah, it's definitely a tossup, but if I had to guess, Biden takes it in the end.

Wb other swing states?

[kwabbit]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.

Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So NY Times lied

[mjba257]

Trump winning NV by the mid-single digits is certainly not out of the question. I can easily see NV becoming another IA or OH given the large amount of non-college voters and trends among Hispanics.

[wbrocks67]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.

Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.

Would disagree on this, because we were also getting these types of polls last fall while simultaneously getting Biden +1 in both CNN and a GOP internal.

Honestly, I don't really think Ralston is all he has cracked up to be (and I made the clear in 2022 as well)

[kwabbit]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.

Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.

Would disagree on this, because we were also getting these types of polls last fall while simultaneously getting Biden +1 in both CNN and a GOP internal.

Honestly, I don't really think Ralston is all he has cracked up to be (and I made the clear in 2022 as well)

I don't think Ralston is a wizard, but he is the most prominent Nevada political reporter. He probably sees more Nevada internal polling than anyone. If the public polling for NV is averaging Trump +7 and he says the internals more or less say the same thing, the conclusion is that Trump is up by a lot in Nevada, at least according to the polling universe. Nevada Dems have a great ground game and stand a good chance to beat the polls, but it's not like polls can ever pick up the effect of the Culinary Union.

[wbrocks67]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.

Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.

Would disagree on this, because we were also getting these types of polls last fall while simultaneously getting Biden +1 in both CNN and a GOP internal.

Honestly, I don't really think Ralston is all he has cracked up to be (and I made the clear in 2022 as well)

I don't think Ralston is a wizard, but he is the most prominent Nevada political reporter. He probably sees more Nevada internal polling than anyone. If the public polling for NV is averaging Trump +7 and he says the internals more or less say the same thing, the conclusion is that Trump is up by a lot in Nevada, at least according to the polling universe. Nevada Dems have a great ground game and stand a good chance to beat the polls, but it's not like polls can ever pick up the effect of the Culinary Union.

The thing is though, we don't have a ton of Nevada polling to go on, but what we do have is all over the place-

Siena: Trump +12 and +14
Bloomberg: Trump +8 and +11
WSJ: Trump +4
Emerson: Trump +1 and +4
GOP internal: Trump +5
GOP internal: Biden +1

Could I buy that Trump has a marginal lead, sure. But I also think the lower end average of those (WSJ-Emerson-GOP internals) is closer to where it is (maybe Trump up a few points) and not the ridiculous Siena/Bloomberg numbers

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Nevada is just a wonky state to poll in general. It's best to still aggregate the polls for it, but its totally fine if you don't want to use polling to make your prediction in Nevada. For example, right now I have Biden carrying the Silver State by <1%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

More sensible than the Siena poll.