Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

On the subject, Transparancy International have just released the results of their 'Corruption Preceptions Index' for 2007. Though we're not a leading light (Score: 7.5/10; 17th place), we do outrank places like France; Belgium; and the US.

[Јas]

The Progressive Democrats continue on what seems to be the path to extinguishment. Senator Fiona O'Malley (ex-TD, Dún Laoighaire), the only PD of any standing who was evidently considering taking the leadership has finally made up her mind against the idea.

It seems remarkable for a political party, especially one in government, to lack any candidate or member (regardless of quality) interested in being party leader.

The bell is surely now tolling for the PDs.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

The PDs will merge will Fianna Fail before the next election, so it is written. (Except that maybe one or two of them will go over to Fine Gael... but who out of the decimated Parliamentary party would do that now like Parlon and O'Donnell (thankfully!) are gone.)

Meanwhile having looked over some the Sunday papers down here in Kildare in the Local Dunnes, did you know OMG SOME WOMAN DIED!1111?

[Јas]

The PDs will merge will Fianna Fail before the next election, so it is written. (Except that maybe one or two of them will go over to Fine Gael... but who out of the decimated Parliamentary party would do that now like Parlon and O'Donnell (thankfully!) are gone.)

At this stage Harney and Grealish are de facto FF TDs. Grealish has made it perfectly clear that he is more than willing to sign up - the absence of any PD leadership makes that all the easier. The question for him is simply when it becomes official.

It's clear now that barring something unforseen, Harney will be Minister for Health as long as Bertie remains at the top. Will be interesting to see if Cowen would be willing to move her should he become Taoiseach before the end of this term. Looks increasingly unlikely that she'll run for election again.

Meanwhile having looked over some the Sunday papers down here in Kildare in the Local Dunnes, did you know OMG SOME WOMAN DIED!1111?

Haven't seen the Sundays today, but the coverage generally has been remarkable. I was only vaguely aware of this woman up until she died. I really don't understand the interest. It eludes me how people seem to be so fascinated.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Unfortunely the Computers at NUIM shut down at 10.. which gives me 3 minutes to post a reply.

At this stage Harney and Grealish are de facto FF TDs. Grealish has made it perfectly clear that he is more than willing to sign up - the absence of any PD leadership makes that all the easier. The question for him is simply when it becomes official.

It's clear now that barring something unforseen, Harney will be Minister for Health as long as Bertie remains at the top. Will be interesting to see if Cowen would be willing to move her should he become Taoiseach before the end of this term. Looks increasingly unlikely that she'll run for election again.

Can't disagree with that.

Haven't seen the Sundays today, but the coverage generally has been remarkable. I was only vaguely aware of this woman up until she died. I really don't understand the interest. It eludes me how people seem to be so fascinated.

Actually I'm very aware (I think) of what lies behind all this.. but in order to explain what see me consuming more time than I already have.

[Јas]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

Yay! Drlcoco related stuff. Actually hard to believe that she is\was the last PD on the council; really the signs were there from the local elections onwards.

Now makes Fianna Fail's life in opposition more difficult. Not that I have a particular fondness for our local council.

[Јas]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

Yay! Drlcoco related stuff. Actually hard to believe that she is\was the last PD on the council; really the signs were there from the local elections onwards.

Now makes Fianna Fail's life in opposition more difficult. Not that I have a particular fondness for our local council.

New Dún Laoighaire - Rathdown Council Composition:
FG 10; FF 7; Lab 6; Green 4; Ind 1

I presume that's been a solid FG/Lab coalition since the election.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

Yay! Drlcoco related stuff. Actually hard to believe that she is\was the last PD on the council; really the signs were there from the local elections onwards.

Now makes Fianna Fail's life in opposition more difficult. Not that I have a particular fondness for our local council.

New Dún Laoighaire - Rathdown Council Composition:
FG 10; FF 7; Lab 6; Green 4; Ind 1

I presume that's been a solid FG/Lab coalition since the election.

Aye. Aye. Though that really should be FG-led council with labour dragging up the rear.

[Јas]

As part of the series of reasons as to why I feel Enda Kenny would be a travesty as Taoiseach is his obsession with the idea of random drug testing.

In Leader's Questions last week, he suggested random drug testing for students; today FG put out a press release calling for random drug testing for nightclub patrons:
"Gardaí should mount random searches of customers outside known nightclubs and pubs in order to root out cocaine use."

There's times when I think he's not much better than the political equivalent of Steve Staunton.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

As part of the series of reasons as to why I feel Enda Kenny would be a travesty as Taoiseach is his obsession with the idea of random drug testing.

In Leader's Questions last week, he suggested random drug testing for students; today FG put out a press release calling for random drug testing for nightclub patrons:
"Gardaí should mount random searches of customers outside known nightclubs and pubs in order to root out cocaine use."

There's times when I think he's not much better than the political equivalent of Steve Staunton.

Indeed. Though really he is a small town lawyer living in a bubble that he believes to be The West wing but with added Michael Ring.

[Јas]

As part of the series of reasons as to why I feel Enda Kenny would be a travesty as Taoiseach is his obsession with the idea of random drug testing.

In Leader's Questions last week, he suggested random drug testing for students; today FG put out a press release calling for random drug testing for nightclub patrons:
"Gardaí should mount random searches of customers outside known nightclubs and pubs in order to root out cocaine use."

There's times when I think he's not much better than the political equivalent of Steve Staunton.

Indeed. Though really he is a small town lawyer living in a bubble that he believes to be The West wing but with added Michael Ring.

lol

Now, now...though there's many the bad apple and gombeen men among we lawyers, I'll not have you sully us with the inclusion of Mr. Kenny!

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

The funny thing I have to say about Enda (or Indah if you prefer) is that he strikes as quite possibly the least ambitious man ever to have lived; he knows the opposition leader role well having seen it done so perfectly (ie. with utter failure) having been a member of the FG frontbench for so long and having his father also in that position yet unlike those other hallowed failures than he succeeded due to not being Gay Mitchell, he brings absolutely nothing to the whole "Dail" thing at all.

He almost makes you wish for the second coming of Michael Noonan.

[Јas]

Taoiseach has announced that the recently announced pay rises for the cabinet will be 'deferred' by a year.

I fail to see any logic to this decision. Either they view the top-up as justified and accept it; or unjustified and refuse it. Accepting it a year later seems to be a fairly stupid way of saying that the pay rise is justified but hey seeing as you all raised such a fuss over it, we better be seen to be doing something about it.

[Јas]

In the interests of balance, having criticised the Government, I shall also give a shout out to Fine Gael who issues a press release yesterday, 'Fishermen alienated by Govt could help in fight against drugs'. So now they've suggested random testing in schools, and outside social venues, and having fishermen on the hunt of drug barons; all within the past 3 weeks.

FG seem to think drugs strategy is like a McDonald's Happy Meal, a new collectable one each week - and about as well conceived in design and use.

[Јas]

The Standards in Public Office Commission have released the spending figures from the General Election.

Party	Expenditure	Seats	€/seat
Fianna Fáil	€3,650,240.55	78	€46,797.96
Fine Gael	€2,809,474.25	51	€55,087.73
Labour	€1,477,321.48	20	€73,866.07
Progressive Democrats	€1,012,707.52	2	€506,353.76
Sinn Féin	€685,095.66	4	€171,273.92
Green Party	€553,858.70	6	€92,309.78
Socialist Party	€56,125.49	0	n/a
Workers' Party	€30,200.14	0	n/a
Christian Solidarity Party	€11,427.06	0	n/a

Those PD seats turned out to be quite expensive!

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

The Standards in Public Office Commission have released the spending figures from the General Election.

Party	Expenditure	Seats	€/seat
Fianna Fáil	€3,650,240.55	78	€46,797.96
Fine Gael	€2,809,474.25	51	€55,087.73
Labour	€1,477,321.48	20	€73,866.07
Progressive Democrats	€1,012,707.52	2	€506,353.76
Sinn Féin	€685,095.66	4	€171,273.92
Green Party	€553,858.70	6	€92,309.78
Socialist Party	€56,125.49	0	n/a
Workers' Party	€30,200.14	0	n/a
Christian Solidarity Party	€11,427.06	0	n/a

Those PD seats turned out to be quite expensive!

According to the IT Frank McNamara, the PD candidate for Dublin South Central (which was never going to elect a PD; even if the PDs had a good year. I know alot of that area - it ain't PD terriority.) was the individual candidate with the tenth highest level of personal spending in the campaign. All that, and less than 1,000 1st Prefs. Hahaha.

And of that "top ten" only two iirc got elected - Parlon was first, Cowley(!!!) was second.. and they got nowhere. Cowley seemingly managed only to pick up the "Shell for Sea" vote and collapsed everywhere else.

[Јas]

I've almost started to check Fine Gael's press releases regularly simply for my own personal amusement. Their latest offering inclides the wonderful line "the army could also help with posture development of schoolchildren" (oh... the mental picture!). FG suggest bringing the army in to help the battle against child obesity - but apparently "Willie O'Dea has unfortunately dismissed my proposals out of hand and seems intent instead on 'playing politics' with this issue".

I don't like it when FG's arguments lead to my agreement with this man:

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

I've almost started to check Fine Gael's press releases regularly simply for my own personal amusement. Their latest offering inclides the wonderful line "the army could also help with posture development of schoolchildren" (oh... the mental picture!). FG suggest bringing the army in to help the battle against child obesity - but apparently "Willie O'Dea has unfortunately dismissed my proposals out of hand and seems intent instead on 'playing politics' with this issue".

I don't like it when FG's arguments lead to my agreement with this man:

What is with your obsession with posting that pic?

EDIT: The FG website is awful.

[Јas]

I've almost started to check Fine Gael's press releases regularly simply for my own personal amusement. Their latest offering inclides the wonderful line "the army could also help with posture development of schoolchildren" (oh... the mental picture!). FG suggest bringing the army in to help the battle against child obesity - but apparently "Willie O'Dea has unfortunately dismissed my proposals out of hand and seems intent instead on 'playing politics' with this issue".

I don't like it when FG's arguments lead to my agreement with this man:

What is with your obsession with posting that pic?

Hard to say...combination of things I suppose. It encapsulates a lot about my perceptions of certain Irish politicans.

I suppose it's become my own version of Private Eye's:

[Јas]

The Irish Mail on Sunday reported that the PD General Council meeting in January the white flag will go up and the party will begin to wind up following there  failure to find a leader. The piece says that PD Councillors have been advised to consider "their future with other political groupings". In a seperate story, the Sunday Times reported that many PD Councillors have already been approached by either FF or FG with a view to what must be defections in the short term given that local elections are due in the early 2009.

[Јas]

Today's Sunday Business Post have apparently reported that the Government plan on holding the EU Reform Treaty Referendum on 9 May.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Today's Sunday Business Post have apparently reported that the Government plan on holding the EU Reform Treaty Referendum on 9 May.

Any idea on whether they will hold the referendum on 'Children's Rights' on the same day? (They were also talking about a potential referendum on Gay Marriage.. Until Leninhan said it would be 'divisive' )

[Јas]

Today's Sunday Business Post have apparently reported that the Government plan on holding the EU Reform Treaty Referendum on 9 May.

Any idea on whether they will hold the referendum on 'Children's Rights' on the same day? (They were also talking about a potential referendum on Gay Marriage.. Until Leninhan said it would be 'divisive' )

I didn't see the article myself. I'd suggest though that it's almost certain that they'll be held on the same day for reasons both economical and political.

[Јas]

First poll of the new year published in today's Irish Times.

First off my now usual summary...

Major political issues in the year so far:

• Neverending saga of the Taoiseach's financial scandal
• Health: Difficult negotiations with hospital consultants over contracts; Poor relative treatment of Cystic Fibrosis in Ireland highlighted
• Green party leadership failed narrowly to get the 2/3 backing of party membership necessary for it to campaign in favour of the Lisbon Treaty
• Debate over PD's political future continues - clear split emerges within the party
• Benchmarking process calls for no rise in most civil service salaries - not long after generous rises for heads of semi-states, senior civil servants and politicians

The headline figures are provided below along with, for comparison, the last poll; the last tns poll; the Election result; and the last tns poll pre-election.

	May 07	May 07	Nov 07	Nov 07	Jan 08
	tnsMRBI;	Election;	tnsMRBI;	RedC;	tnsMRBI
Fianna Fáil	41	41.6	33	32	34
Fine Gael	27	27.3	31	31	31
Labour	10	10.1	15	13	12
Green	6	4.7	5	9	6
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	7	7	8
PD	2	2.7	2	2	3
Other	7	6.6	7	7	6

Very little movement on the last Irish Times poll. Most noticeably FF are marginally up (+2); Labour down (-3).


Satisfaction Ratings

Surname	Position	Satisfied;	Dissatisfied;	No Opinion;	Net Satisfaction;	Change to Satisfied
Ahern	Taoiseach, FF Leader	40	54	6	-14	-3
Cowen	Tánaiste, FF Dep. Leader	52	29	19	+23	+3
Kenny	Fine Gael Leader	41	37	22	+4	-1
Gilmore	Labour Leader	36	23	41	+13	+6
Gormley	Green Leader	42	30	28	+12	+2
Adams	SF Leader	48	26	26	+22	+7
Harney	PD Acting Leader	35	53	12	-18	Unchanged

Ahern and Harney both above 50% on the dissatisfieds and only getting worse.
Cowen rated surprisingly highly as questions and murmurs continue as to when/if he will make a pro-active move to take the leadership while he continues to be the obvious successor.
Gilmore clearly has a very high non-recognition issue to get over, but he's still new-ish to leadership.

Questions on the Taoiseach
Q: The leaders of Fine Gael and the Labour Party claim that Mr. Ahern did not give the full picture about his finances or his tax liabilities and have called on him to resign. Should the Taoiseach resign, or not?
Yes 44%
No 46%
Don't Know/No opinion 10%

(FF voters: No = 77%)

Q: Mr. Ahern has indicated that he may step down as Taoiseach before the next election. Do you think he should step down or stay on and lead his party into the next election?
Should step down 55%
Should stay on 36%
DK/No op 9%

Q: Do you believe [Ahern] has given the full picture about his personal finances and tax liabilities or does he have further questions to answer?

	May 07;	Oct 07;	Jan 08
Has given the full picture	29%	17%	14%
Has further questions to answer	58%	72%	78%
DK/No op	13%	11%	8%