Australia General Discussion

[Sibboleth]

Essentially Rudd is a prick.

[Secretary Polnut]

Essentially Rudd is a prick.

Pretty much, yes.

New polling might give Gillard some cause for calm...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-06/nielsen-poll-sees-gillard-overtake-abbott/3812718

[Platypus]

TFFT

[Vote UKIP!]

Two questions:

1) Who would challenge Abbott for the leadership?

2) Where can I find a color coded map of the Australian House?

[Secretary Polnut]

1) Only Turnbull

John Hewson (Lib leader 1990-1994, also Abbott's former boss and NO great fan) said that as long as Gillard remains PM - Abbott remains relatively secure, which is true.

There's an Australian map thread here somewhere. But I'm sure a-googling would give you what you seek.

[Smid]

Two questions:

1) Who would challenge Abbott for the leadership?

2) Where can I find a color coded map of the Australian House?

International Elections board. Homely just started a "New Australian Maps" thread a couple of weeks ago. Al did a few maps after the election in the thread on the election. They're probably all in the International Elections gallery.

[Vote UKIP!]

Once again, thanks guys. I would like to learn more about the Australian political system, so I'll probably stick around.

Buy your best estimation, who will be the next PM. Is Abbott that bad that he cant win the premiership?

[Secretary Polnut]

It's difficult to say...

I think if Rudd regains the leadership (which is about a 50/50 chance), I think Rudd would win the next election if Abbott were leader.

But Turnbull could beat either Gillard or Rudd.

There's a number, more on the ALP-side with opportunities, but each with their own shortcomings.

1. Stephen Smith, Defence Minister - very smart, stable... but a touch boring

2. Greg Combet, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Minister - again, smart and a very able Minister - but the Union background could be a problem

3. Penny Wong, Finance Minister - would need to shift to the House... probably the single-most impressive Minister in Cabinet... slight problem with being openly gay...

I think Bill Shorten, a oft-mentioned option is far too green.

[Vote UKIP!]

Interesting.

If the federal election were held tomorrow, which party would win?

[Secretary Polnut]

Interesting.

If the federal election were held tomorrow, which party would win?

The Coalition - but it would be closer than the polls suggest

[Smid]

I think that many of the people who prefer Turnbull over Abbott would not vote for the Coalition regardless of who is the leader or are Liberal moderates who are likewise not swinging voters. I think that compared to Abbott, Turnbull would increase the margin in inner-suburban safe Liberal seats and decrease the margin in inner-suburban safe Labor seats. Abbott has the greater ability to win the outer-suburban swing seats.

[Secretary Polnut]

I disagree - polls showed that in the 6-7 marginal seats that decided the election Abbott was what prevented a clear Coalition majority in 2010.

[Secretary Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-13/gillard-prepared-for-rudd-knifing-weeks-before-spill/3827726

...and this might go down as one of the most spectacular own-goals in Australian political history.

One thing that saved Gillard's reputation after the Rudd removal was the idea that she had no choice, and was forced to take the job.

But the when faced with allegations that she and her backers had been talking about a leadership coup a full fortnight before it happened, with the US State Department being more well-informed than most Government backbenchers (the Australian Ambassador was called in for a meeting with Secretary Clinton). The worst allegation was that staff in her personal office had been writing a leadership take-over speech over that same previous two-week period. When asked in the interview for the program, if she knew that those staff members were writing that speech... she didn't deny she had knowledge.

This with the new Newspoll suggesting the TPP has slipped-back to 55-45 and Abbott surged past Gillard.

[Secretary Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-used-polling-to-trigger-coup-20120214-1t49l.html

This just gets worse for her...

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-used-polling-to-trigger-coup-20120214-1t49l.html

This just gets worse for her...

Argh, why is the PM such a joke!? Even Gordon Brown held knifing Blair better than this.

[Secretary Polnut]

If Gillard had come clean at the beginning that she had been "working to ensure that any change was as smooth as possible" and" undertaking this was not an easy decision, but I had been considering my position for some time, although it was not until today that I made the final decision to address this particular issue head-on"... it would have been different.

She tried to claim that she only decided on the day to challenge and there was the perception she wasn't actively involved in any campaign to remove Rudd... the BIG problem for Gillard is that it feeds into the idea that she's scheming and dishonest... if this isn't the death-blow for her. I don't know what is.

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so she's a competent political assassin. It doesn't change Lab's flatlining.

[Secretary Polnut]

OK, so she's a competent political assassin. It doesn't change Lab's flatlining.

Um, if an assassin gets so easily caught then they aren't that competent.

The ALP is in a critical-condition, they're rapidly turning into the NSW ALP, basically everything they touched turned to merde.

They need a circuit-breaker and need one now. 

[RogueBeaver]

Repeal those taxes, repeal cap and trade. Until then, Abbott should not interfere with Lab's serene Controlled Flight Into Terrain.

[Secretary Polnut]

Repeal those taxes, repeal cap and trade. Until then, Abbott should not interfere with Lab's serene Controlled Flight Into Terrain.

No, without them the Budget won't hit a surplus until the end of the decade.

They aren't reasons fundamentally, the mining tax is very popular, the carbon tax is on shakier ground, but that's more based on the situation that brought it about, rather than the tax itself (apart from the rampant misinformation and fear campaign)

The ALP's problems are based on
1) the perception that the Government is based on expedience (scrapping the CPRS in April 2010 was the beginning of the end for Rudd)

2) Gillard's ascension to PM was fundamentally tainted as it was seen as undemocratic...

3) The carbon-tax "lie", Gillard saying that she wouldn't bring about a carbon tax ... then she did... I don't think it was an active lie, I think she wouldn't have done it if it weren't a minority government.

4) It basically built the idea that Gillard was untrustworthy and that the Government doesn't really stand for much...

[Smid]

Snipping a bit (and trying not to remove context):

the carbon tax is on shakier ground, but that's more based on the situation that brought it about, rather than the tax itself (apart from the rampant misinformation and fear campaign)

3) The carbon-tax "lie", Gillard saying that she wouldn't bring about a carbon tax ... then she did... I don't think it was an active lie, I think she wouldn't have done it if it weren't a minority government.

4) It basically built the idea that Gillard was untrustworthy and that the Government doesn't really stand for much...

I think that pretty much sums up the Government's unpopularity. I personally don't like the tax but I'll keep those opinions out of it and try to be objective... I think that the reason the Government and the Prime Minister is unpopular is not because of the tax per se, but rather because of the way it was brought in - after she'd specifically ruled it out during the election campaign.

I think people are more willing to forgive a government, particularly a minority government, for failing to act - especially on election commitments, rather than for acting on what they said they wouldn't do. There was plenty of legislation during the Howard era that was blocked by the Senate, (and 2004 was the first government majority in the Senate in what? 25 years?) so I think people are fairly used to governments not having a complete free rein - and probably somewhat expect the government to be curtailed from some of their plans. Sort of a "well, we tried, but they wouldn't let it through - give us a mandate at this next election/end the uncertainty and we'll do it."

During the formation of government negotiations with the Greens, I think the Prime Minister was in a stronger position than I think she thought. The Greens were never going to throw their support behind a Tony Abbott led government, and I think she could have stared them down on that without concessions like the Carbon Tax. Even if they ended up backing the Coalition, while Labor would have lost the short-term battle, they would have been better off in the long-run... a Coalition minority Government propped up by the Greens would never have lasted full-term and Labor would comfortably win back Melbourne and get a decent buffer in Sydney and Grayndler, and the Greens would have taken a hammering in their Senate vote - most of which would probably ended up back with Labor.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it.

[Secretary Polnut]

I think Rudd's biggest mistake was not going for a double-dissolution in February 2010. He had the opportunity before Abbott got his footing to basically take the moral high-ground on climate change... but he, like many if I'm honest, expected Abbott to implode and would be an easy win later in the year.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

I think Rudd's biggest mistake was not going for a double-dissolution in February 2010. He had the opportunity before Abbott got his footing to basically take the moral high-ground on climate change... but he, like many if I'm honest, expected Abbott to implode and would be an easy win later in the year.

So it was kind of Rudd's Jim Callaghan/Gordon Brown moment?

[You kip if you want to...]

I think Rudd's biggest mistake was not going for a double-dissolution in February 2010. He had the opportunity before Abbott got his footing to basically take the moral high-ground on climate change... but he, like many if I'm honest, expected Abbott to implode and would be an easy win later in the year.

So it was kind of Rudd's Jim Callaghan/Gordon Brown moment?

And the carbon tax was Julia's Clegg moment?

[Vote UKIP!]

Does Australian House of Representatives have a vote of no confidence rule? And if so, how likely would it occur on this situation.