Australia General Discussion

[Secretary Polnut]

Rudd clearly jumped the gun on this one; he should've waited until after Gillard's (presumptive) defeat and resignation before launching his bid.

Yes and no.

Rudd clearly completely underestimated how much his colleagues feared his return.

A lot of this comes down to a different style of leadership when in a party. The Liberal Party is about hierarchy, what the leader wants, the leader usually gets (unless you're a very wet Lib, a la Turnbull), so they have a very presidential style.

The ALP, despite having very strong leaders, Whitlam, Hawke, Keating etc etc the ALP has always been about the caucus... Gillard's asset and also her flaw is that she demonstrates the capacity for compromise and negotiation that Rudd clearly lacked, but Rudd's strong personal leadership doesn't work within the ALP (although it is popular with the public), especially when you think you can lead a party just because you're personally popular.

[Secretary Polnut]

Reports of a re-count... sigh.

[You kip if you want to...]

This Liberal Party mixing up their metaphors.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Cj6w83yueM

[RogueBeaver]

Caucus is everything. Rudd's an ass, and everything else aside, why have an ass as leader when you can have someone who at least goes through the motions, maybe even genuinely cares, about your opinions and feelings? Just from the average backbencher's POV.


Recount? Dunno why... not like the result will change.

[Secretary Polnut]

Confirmed: Gillard - 71-31! My prediction was right!!!!

[Sibboleth]

Can Rudd now fyck off and retire quietly?

[Smid]

Rumour that Senator Mark Arbib has resigned as Senator and Minister

Bit odd... I was of the impression he backed the successful candidate.

[Secretary Polnut]

Leaving to promote healing and renewal.

[Platypus]

No more Arbib? Excellent.

[Secretary Polnut]

First post-spill Newspoll... a mix of news.

Primary
ALP: 31% down 4%
Coalition: 43% down 2%
Greens: 12% up 1%

TPP:
ALP: 47% - steady
Coalition: 53% - steady


Preferred PM
Gillard: 39% up 2%
Abbott: 37% down 1%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 28% up 2%
Abbott: 32% up 1%

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 62% down 2%
Abbott: 58% up 1%

[RogueBeaver]

That's within a point of 1996's results. Cool.

[Smid]

Ongoing problems for the federal government.

[RogueBeaver]

That's not a matter of confidence, though still embarrassing.

[Smid]

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

[You kip if you want to...]

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

Has Tony Abbott demanded a General Election over this yet?

[State Comptroller Atkins]

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

Has Tony Abbott demanded a General Election over this yet?

I remember when Cameron demanded a general election every other week during the Brown Government. Of course, Miliband can't do that because of the fixed terms bill.

[You kip if you want to...]

And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

Has Tony Abbott demanded a General Election over this yet?

I remember when Cameron demanded a general election every other week during the Brown Government. Of course, Miliband can't do that because of the fixed terms bill.

A variation of the old "noun, verb, 9/11".

A noun-A verb-A demand for a General Election. The extent of Tony Abbott's rhetoric.

[Secretary Polnut]

Latest poll... and it's UGLY

Primary
ALP: 27% (-2)
Coalition: 51% (+3)
Greens: 11% (-1)

TPP
ALP: 41% (-3)
Coalition: 59% (+3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 36% (-2)
Abbot: 41% (nc)


What is clear to me is this, the Government has not been able to combine the public dislike of Abbott to the vote his party receives. Which is a reverse of the way it usually works. The Coalition is a far more hierarchical party, generally if the leader is unpopular, the party goes down. Which represents a HUGE failure of the Government.

The Government is putting its faith in a) the benefits of the carbon price (ie getting more back than you're going to pay out) and confidence in the economy...

However, the hatchet job the Coalition have done to denigrate the most stable economy in the Industrialised world is quite remarkable.

This is being combined with the tactic employed by the NSW and QLD Oppositions before their landslides. Small target, attack the Government, but don't put policies that will put the focus on you... and it works.

The Government has ONE shot, and one shot only...
1. do not get rid of the PM - it reeks of desperation, and likely just sacrifices a potential future leader
2. Focus on Abbott - you cannot win this by being completely positive - people are starting to switch off - give them a reason to listen to you
3. You have a BRILLIANT record to run on, but seem unable to capitalise on it. FIRE your PR people and get new people in, now.
4. Create a circuit-breaker... it's what saved Howard in 2001 when he was facing certain doom... force the Libs to take a position on a high-profile issue...

[RogueBeaver]

Mayday, GQ, 5-alarm fire, whatever metaphor you want to use.

Green's swingometer doesn't swing that far, but 57/43 translates to 109-38-3.

[Vote UKIP!]

It seems altogether likely that we may see an election in Australia this year.

Because of the crisis the Gillard government is facing, it seems that Abbott is the prime beneficiary, since he may ne elected PM by simply not being Gillard.

[RogueBeaver]

No, Gillard will let the clock run out.

[Vote UKIP!]

No, Gillard will let the clock run out.

That supposes the independents don't bail out on her.

[RogueBeaver]

No, Gillard will let the clock run out.

That supposes the independents don't bail out on her.

And lose their seats a year earlier than scheduled? I think not.

[Secretary Polnut]

Latest Newspoll... slight Budget bounce for ALP

Primary
ALP: 30% (+3)
Coalition: 45% (-6)
Greens: 12% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+4)
Coalition: 55% (-4)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 36% (NC)
Abbott: 40% (-1)

It's not in Gillard's nor the Independent's interests to have an election... which, even if Gillard goes down without one... Abbott would certainly want immediately.

[Secretary Polnut]

New newspoll, continued 'positive' trend for the Government... Abbott's personal numbers drop to 2009 lows...

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 46% (+1)
Greens: 12% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 46% (+1)
Coalition: 54% (-1)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 40% (+4)
Abbott: 37% (-3)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 30% (+3)
Abbott: 31% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 60% (-3)
Abbott: 60% (+4)


So... brief analysis...

Abbott's attacks on Craig Thomson appeared to have back-fired, amplifying the Coalition's biggest single weakness, Tony Abbott's aggressive style.

So in the last month
Primary
ALP: +5
Coalition: -5

TPP
ALP: +5
Coalition: -5

Preferred PM
Gillard: +4
Abbott: -4