The Census Bureau released its new estimates for the population of the states as of July 1, 2007. As in past years I have used that data to project the April 1, 2010 apportionment populations. This requires finding the population growth in the resident population for each state, then applying that to the apportionment population.
One special circumstance is to account for the effect of hurricane Katrina. LA saw an estimated drop of 250 K in the 10 months following the hurricane. If I used the normal methodology, that would project a continued decline through 2010. Instead, for LA I took the percentage growth through July 1, 2005, then applied that to the new estimate for July 1, 2007. This gives some projected growth over the next 2 3/4 years.
Based on this projection, the following adjustments would be required to reapportion the seats in 2010:
AZ +2
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MO -1
NV +1
NJ -1
NY -2
OH -2
OR +1
PA -1
TX +4
UT +1
Compared to last year's projection this is a shift of two seats from CA and NJ to MN and OR. The last states awarded seats were AZ 10 (431), PA 18 (432), TX 36 (433), MN 8 (434) and OR 6 (435). These seats are on the bubble and most at risk to fluctuations in growth in the next two years. TX 36 is particularly at risk since part of the population growth is due to Katrina relocation.
The next five seats would go to WA 10 (436), NY 28 (437), MO 9 (438), SC 7 (439), and IL 19 (440). Seat 436 is important if Congress passes the DC representation act since that seat could be real in 2010. Last year I noted the appearance of WA and OR on the bubble list, suggesting that the Census Bureau is seeing a new growth spurt in those states. Note that OR did indeed move up to 435.
While of course these are mere projections, if they hold up, then the states which voted for Bush in would gain seven electoral college votes, and the states which voted for Kerry would lose seven electoral college votes.
