Washington '12: Getting Stoned at our Gay Weddings

[Meeker]

WA-01 poll from King5/SurveyUSA

Koster - R: 46%
Burner - D: 19%
Ruderman - D: 6%
DelBene - D: 4%
Hobbs - D: 4%
Ishmael - I: 4%
Rauniyar - D: 1%

Burner does the best in the head-to-heads with Koster, losing 48-39. Ruderman and DelBene are behind him 49-32, Hobbs 47-31 and Rauniyar 50-28.

There's some weirdness in it though; it has Romney leading Obama 45-44 in the district and McKenna crushing Inslee 52-38. The primary electorate is going to be a older/more conservative than the general of course but that still seems a few points too red.

[bgwah]

Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.

[ottermax]

Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.

Not to mention that it's completely Democrats' fault. Just so we could have a minority-majority seat that will be represented by a White guy for 10 years...

It's sad that WA will have an even delegation for the next decade because of redistricting (except in a Democratic wave year).

[Meeker]

I don't think all hope is lost. The sample appears a little too Republican (Romney ahead 45-44 in a district that went 57% for Obama in 2008?) and the general election campaign hasn't really started. Once the Democrats unify and start hammering Koster for being the right-wing nut he is I suspect our numbers will improve no matter who the nominee is. It'll still be close in the end of course; it's a swing district.

And on the nomination front, DelBene is going to start carpet bombing the airwaves and mailboxes pretty soon. I think in the end it'll be pretty close between them (not really seeing too viable of a pathway for Ruderman unless Burner and Delbene go nuclear on each other).

[bgwah]

Koster would probably be a one-termer if he won, but who knows, the Democrats might try Burner for a fourth time...

[Meeker]

The Washington State Democrats have nominated Kathleen Drew for Secretary of State and Craig Pridemore for State Auditor. No one received enough votes to get the nomination in the 1st CD but Burner came the closest with 39 followed by Ruderman with 29, Delbene with 15, "No Endorsement" with 6, Rauniyar with 5 and Hobbs with 1 (lol). A candidate needed 48 votes to win the nomination.

On the Republican side Bill Finkbeiner was nominated for Lt. Governor (Glenn Anderson wasn't even allowed to speak). Brad Owen was nowhere to be seen at the Democratic convention and was never mentioned from the podium. I think he might be in real trouble, especially if McKenna trounces Inslee.

[Frodo]

How is it looking at the state legislative level?  Will Democrats regain the ground they lost in 2010 in both chambers? 

[Meeker]

State Senate situation is likely to worsen, could even get to 25-24 with Tim Sheldon and Jim Hargrove holding the balance of power. State House will probably remain about the same; we have a few pick-up opportunities (6th, 25th, 47th, maybe the 10th and the 17th) but also some potential losses (17th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 44th).

[bgwah]

So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.

[Meeker]

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State

[bgwah]

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State

It's just upsetting to sit back and see it all happening.

[Ogre Mage]

I would be surprised if Dunn won the AG race and honestly, my opinion of Owen is low so I cannot work up any concern over his losing.

The governor, WA-01, and SoS races are cause for concern, however.  I greatly fear we are going to wind up with McKenna and the chatter I continue to hear and read about Inslee's campaign is negative.

[Senator Napoleon]

Inslee needs to move fast or he wont have an opportunity to catch up.

[bgwah]

The local media is in love with Rob McKenna, so that won't be easy.

[Meeker]

Washington Conservation Voters just endorsed Bill Finkbeiner.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I have never seen so few people in local orgs care about a statewide elected Democrat than with Brad Owen.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

We're in the running for another PPP poll.  Someone has apparently cheated for us...but vote anyway, so it looks legitimate, I guess?

As always, they'll accept question suggestions.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

So, this charter school thing is shaping up to be pretty interesting.

[Seattle]

So, this charter school thing is shaping up to be pretty interesting.

Charter schools are a monumental waste of money. I really hope it fails.

[Meeker]

Brian Sonntag has endorsed Rob McKenna. So has Tim Sheldon.

[bgwah]

Brian Sonntag has endorsed Rob McKenna. So has Tim Sheldon.

Is he that upset about not getting to be the nominee?

[Meeker]

He endorsed McKenna in 2008 too. I think he's just a dick.

[Seattle]

Debate right now in Spokane. I'm watching it right now.

I think McKenna will win... He's just got everything going for him.

[bgwah]

I just watched the debate. Inslee did better than I thought he would.

McKenna's math makes no sense. Not that Inslee was terribly specific or anything.

[Seattle]

I just watched the debate. Inslee did better than I thought he would.

McKenna's math makes no sense. Not that Inslee was terribly specific or anything.

Inslee is still keeping up with this ambiguity act. Not helpful when your at risk of fading into the backround.