Washington '12: Getting Stoned at our Gay Weddings

[Meeker]

That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.

DelBene did worse than Burner did in 2006. Reichert always wins with low 50s, just like Gerlach in PA-6. The challenging candidate doesn't matter much.

The national climates of 2006 and 2010 were a bit different...

[Senator Napoleon]

^^^ Yup. If DelBene had run in 2006 or 2008 she would've beaten Reichert. Rodney Tom in 2008 may have also had a shot.

I liked Darcy a lot both times she ran before but don't much anymore; I think she's become way too negative and ideological. The most important factor though is that she's not going to be able to beat Koster in November (yes, I know that SurveyUSA poll had her doing the best. That's just because of name recognition.)

Fair enough. Negative and ideological don't turn me off too much and the new district as I understand gave Obama a decent margin but is swingier down ballot.

The national climates of 2006 and 2010 were a bit different...

I consider this argument a fallacy...yes it can account for some races, but I don't think it can be tossed around the way it is on this site. For example Dan Lungren got 60% in 206 and only 50% in 2010. A similar district to Reichert's would be PA-6, where Gerlach regularly gets low 50s no matter the opponent. District specific issues like the rumors about Reichert's health could also be a factor, so I think you're being a bit unfair, if not completely aversive to the big picture. I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.

[bgwah]

And while Burner is liberal, so is Ruderman (and especially Rauniyar, but nobody really cares about him). And I'd consider DelBene left of center. Hobbs is the moderate Democrat.

Ruderman is my preferred pick, as she's a solid progressive with legislative experience and a track record of winning swing districts. But I can settle on DelBene as the anti-Burner if necessary (I'll be keeping a close eye on polling).

Why is DelBene stronger? She's a self-funder, which definitely helps. She also has some experience, like heading the state department of revenue, while Darcy still has nothing. She also just comes off across much more sane and reasonable sounding than Burner does.

[Ogre Mage]

I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.

While I hesitate to draw too many conclusions from recent polling, the PPP poll showed DelBene doing five points better with independents than Burner in spite of lower name recognition.  Burner does better with Democrats.  The new WA-01 was specifically drawn as a swing district.  If this was a race in WA-07 I'd be for Burner.  But it isn't. 

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.

***

The SUSA poll also shows:

Attorney General
Ferguson (D) 37%
Dunn (R) 37%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell (D) 51%
Baumgartner (R) 40%

Still nothing on the SUSA web site.

Ballots will be arriving statewide between yesterday and Monday.

[Senator Napoleon]

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.

I would explain that by pointing to the rumors of brain damage and all that but if you guys don't think that had an impact..

[bgwah]

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.

I would explain that by pointing to the rumors of brain damage and all that but if you guys don't think that had an impact..

It really didn't...

[Meeker]

Most voters had no idea of anything involving that story. What narrowed the margin was DelBene's effective television ads and campaigning.

[Senator Napoleon]

OK. If you all don't think Burner can win then it makes sense not to support her. Still I would prefer to see her win the primary and the general.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/07/20/friday-briefing-obamas-lead-in-washington-narrows-a-bit-polls-on-marijuanal-charters-same-sex-marriage/

Charter schools at 46%
Gay marriage at 50% (indicates probably +5 or so)
Two-thirds majority at 56%

They don't give No numbers.  Super helpful!

[Meeker]

It's like she's trying to lose: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/20/1112130/-An-adult-conversation-about-guns

[Grad Students are the Worst]

It's like she's trying to lose: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/20/1112130/-An-adult-conversation-about-guns

"It’s time we had an adult conversation about guns in this country. The NRA can go to hell."

sigh

[bgwah]

Perfect example of why she's not a good fit for this district.

[Fuzzy]

ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%

[bgwah]

Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%

Wow... That's SUSA? Saying pot is ahead by a 24 point margin? I think pot overpolls, but +24 means it's probably actually ahead!

[CT27]

Haven't been following this too much:

Does McKenna actually have a chance to win?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

The somewhat bad news for the Republicans here is that undecideds tend to be Democratic voters.  For instance:

* In the Governor's race, 8% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 3% are undecided Romney voters.

* In the AG race, 12% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 6% are undecided Romney voters.

Charter schools undecideds split 10%-10% between Obama and Romney voters.

Eyman issue splits undecideds 13%-7% Obama.

Also, apparently Cupcake Royale's pro-R74 cupcakes raised $7,000 this month.  Not bad.

[CultureKing]

Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.

[bgwah]

I remember seeing a really great graph in 2010 that showed the various biases of all the pollsters who poll Washington. Does anybody know where I can find it?

[Frodo]

Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.

Those are the kinds of numbers that makes you stay up at night. 

[bgwah]

I remember seeing a really great graph in 2010 that showed the various biases of all the pollsters who poll Washington. Does anybody know where I can find it?

Found it: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/mail-voting-in-washington-state-may-confound-pollsters/

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Fwiw, Eyman's polling numbers almost always deteriorate as the election approaches (although there would have to be a hell of a lot of deterioration, especially since the voters have passed this before.)

[ModerateCoward]

How is Eyman polling so well?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Dave T. Sumner IV, who prefers the Neopopulist Party, has a varied background. He describes himself as an electro-goth and rap recording artist, lobbyist and a Satanist who founded The Haunted Church.

Sumner said his political views are anchored in the U.S. Constitution. He dislikes the coordination between big business and government and wants to work to eliminate inequality between the rich and poor. He also opposes increased government use of databases to track information about people.

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