Washington '12: Getting Stoned at our Gay Weddings

[ModerateCoward]

That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.

Do democratic incumbents really need protection?

Rick Larsen did.

Party elder Denny Heck was also treated as a de facto incumbent.

Isn't 3rd turning more Republican though?

[bgwah]

Yes, but Heck is getting the new 10th district instead.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Hah, the glitterbomber from the Santorum rally was the burnout from my chemistry class.  He's apparently now an Occupy camper.  Ahh, predictable.

[Fuzzy]

Hah, the glitterbomber from the Santorum rally was the burnout from my chemistry class.  He's apparently now an Occupy camper.  Ahh, predictable.

Bless his soul.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Washington is currently running second behind Wisconsin for the next PPP poll.  Vote!

[greenforest32]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Washington is currently running second behind Wisconsin for the next PPP poll.  Vote!

Do they poll the top two when there are only four choices?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017504326_another_poll_shows_mckenna_lea.html

Elway, 405 RV, shows McKenna 45%, Inslee 36%:

Continuing an early trend in Washington's 2012 governor's race, a new Elway poll finds Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna with a 9-point lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee.

The poll, conducted last week, found 45 percent of respondents would "definitely" or "probably" vote for McKenna, compared with 36 percent for Inslee.

Pollster Stuart Elway notes one "ominous" sign for Inslee in the poll data: the proportion of voters with a negative impression of him (22 percent) is nearly equal to those with a positive impression (28 percent).

By contrast, McKenna has a 3 to 1 ratio of positive to negative impression among voters surveyed.

Elway also found McKenna enjoying a lead among key independent voters: 49 percent said they're at least leaning toward McKenna compared with 24 percent for Inslee.

In addition, McKenna is picking up 13 percent of Democrats in the poll, while only 3 percent of Republicans said they'd cross party lines to back Inslee.

Overall, Elway says the results show "a significant early advantage" for McKenna, while Inslee has yet to broaden his appeal beyond the Democratic base.

"McKenna does an even better job among voters who are familiar with both candidates, suggesting that he will get stronger as the campaign unfolds," Elway notes. "But there are many miles to go before we vote."

The poll of 405 registered voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 5 percent.

Inslee's continuing lag in the early polls has been worrying Democrats, who united behind the Bainbridge Island Congressman early, stifling any notion of a primary challenge.

Some Democratic operatives have been quietly agitating for Inslee to quit Congress and concentrate on campaigning full-time. Inslee has said he has no plans to do so.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

PPP is going to be polling us this weekend.  Any suggestions on questions?  (Beyond the obvious -- marriage equality, pot, Cantwell/Bryant, Cantwell/Baumgartner, Gov) -- I'll pass them onto PPP.

[Jackson]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017504326_another_poll_shows_mckenna_lea.html

Elway, 405 RV, shows McKenna 45%, Inslee 36%:

Has Governor McKenna started fitting the curtains for his new office yet?

[Seattle]

income tax? Didn't some poll show it now passing?

[Jackson]

Income taxes passing in Washington? Ha Ha Ha Ha!

[realisticidealist]

PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.

[realisticidealist]

PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.

No, I'd have to drive back to the westside.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

New SUSA poll:

McKenna 49%
Inslee 39%

Obama 50%
Romney 39%

Obama 50%
Paul 37%

Obama 51%
Santorum 38%

Obama 56%
Gingrich 34%

Referendum 74 - Gay marriage (estimated)
Approved 50%
Rejected 46%

Also, lol:

[CultureKing]

Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

[bgwah]

Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Gay marriage numbers in the SUSA poll were 50%-45% Approved with Obama underwater in approval 42%-47%.  The partisan ID looks too Republican to me, but adjusting it to 2010 exit poll results results in insanity (Obama +20 over Romney)

[Fuzzy]

Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.

That's absolutely BS, of course.   lol

[Grad Students are the Worst]

PPP won't leak anything to me besides saying to expect some "interesting" results.  I asked about the social issues votes (pots, gays) specifically.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Why is Alcon in New York?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Why is Alcon in New York?

Conference

[Grad Students are the Worst]

PPP will have non-GOP primary stuff tomorrow

[bgwah]

PPP says:

Governor: 42-42 McKenna-Inslee
Attorney General: 34-32 Dunn-Ferguson

I-502 (Marijuana): 47-39 Approve
Gay marriage: 50-46 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf

Doesn't look liked they asked about the Senate race?

[MilesC56]

They'll probably release Senate numbers separately. They usually split up President/Senate/Governor results out among a few reports.