PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Obama leads by 7%

[TheresNoMoney]

9/24-9/28, 581 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.5%

Obama   49%
McCain    42%

Link

[Sam Spade]

Looks to me like this is a daily tracking poll of PA with about 120 voters a day...

[Aizen]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

[Rowan]

D +14 party ID advantage? Uh no. Oh and please don't show me the party registration numbers in PA as if they mean something. Look at the exit polls to see who actually votes.

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living up to your exceptional standards.

[Reaganfan]

Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Period.

[riceowl]

Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Period.

Phil, retort? 

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Period.

Phil, retort? 

Naso knows how I feel. His "analysis" is even more assinine than those of the Obama fanatics.

"There are too many stubborn steel town Democrats!"

[Dan the Roman]

D +14 party ID advantage? Uh no. Oh and please don't show me the party registration numbers in PA as if they mean something. Look at the exit polls to see who actually votes.

Ironic given your statements on Colorado, and most New Hampshire polls we have seen, both of which suffer from the exact problem you describe.

Anyway, you generally have to overstate Democratic party id v. past exit polls to get accurate results just as you have to do the same thing for the Conservatives in England. I am sure there will not be a +14 D advantage on the exit poll, but the polls that use +14 will be vastly closer to the actual result than the ones that use the 2004 exit poll numbers. That was pretty clear over the last few elections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

[Verily]

Looks to me like this is a daily tracking poll of PA with about 120 voters a day...

Yes, that was what they said when it first came out on Friday. Maybe we should have a thread for Muhlenberg's Pennsylvania tracker, albeit probably not stickied (since we may get more state-level trackers).

Also, from the write-up, "The Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll does not weight by party affiliation." Treat it like SUSA, expect pretty wild party affiliation swings.

[Reaganfan]

Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Period.

Phil, retort? 

Naso knows how I feel. His "analysis" is even more assinine than those of the Obama fanatics.

"There are too many stubborn steel town Democrats!"

My father has been arguing that McCain could very well win Pennsylvania because "It isn't all big cities" and that McCain will pick up alot of the rural vote.

I'm actually a bit surprised at how Democratic Pennsylvania was in 2000 and 2004...especially in 2004...I would have expected Bush to come closer...if not even win the state. That's why I lean that Pennsylvania will be close, but go to Obama.

However...if Obama gains and holds a larger lead going into election night...then it might be like the 2000 results with a close but comfortable Obama victory.

All in all, I can only see John McCain winning Pennsylvania if he takes the popular vote by a good 2-3 pts.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Period.

Phil, retort? 

Naso knows how I feel. His "analysis" is even more assinine than those of the Obama fanatics.

"There are too many stubborn steel town Democrats!"

My father has been arguing that McCain could very well win Pennsylvania because "It isn't all big cities" and that McCain will pick up alot of the rural vote.

I'm actually a bit surprised at how Democratic Pennsylvania was in 2000 and 2004...especially in 2004...I would have expected Bush to come closer...if not even win the state. That's why I lean that Pennsylvania will be close, but go to Obama.

However...if Obama gains and holds a larger lead going into election night...then it might be like the 2000 results with a close but comfortable Obama victory.

All in all, I can only see John McCain winning Pennsylvania if he takes the popular vote by a good 2-3 pts.

while this is true, remember that a lot of these folks are Evangelicals or conservative Catholics who vote on social issues, and I think Bush did about as well with these voters as a Republican can do.

[J. J.]

& points, no way, but Obama probably carries PA.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080928033

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

[Ty440]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

Hey Phil what's your prediction for Bucks County, I know you know that area better than most on here, mind you that Bucks was a very accurate bellweather for the whole state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential election

Remember Obama got thumped against Hillary  in the primary in Bucks he got a measly 37.39% of the vote.

If Mccain can win Bucks by more than 2% points I think he takes the state

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

Hey Phil what's your prediction for Bucks County, I know you know that area better than most on here, mind you that Bucks was a very accurate bellweather for the whole state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential election

Remember Obama got thumped against Hillary  in the primary in Bucks he got a measly 37.39% of the vote.

If Mccain can win Bucks by more than 2% points I think he takes the state

As of now, McCain isn't winning Bucks. I think there is a great chance that that will change though. He doesn't need to win the county though. A slight improvement on Bush's numbers would be a huge help and that's very possible here.

[Kalimantan]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

My analysis isn't based on anecdotes - look, here's an anecdote to prove it

[ucscgaldamez]

Yeah, and Santorum was very close to winning in PA.

I do think, however, that the results in PA will be close but Obama will win by a small margin.

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

My analysis isn't based on anecdotes - look, here's an anecdote to prove it

As I said, hard head, it's not based on talking to Joe Average. These are people involved in the process.

Yeah, and Santorum was very close to winning in PA.

I do think, however, that the results in PA will be close but Obama will win by a small margin.

As I said before, this doesn't even come close to comparing to that race. I love how you even admit that by saying that Obama will win by a "small margin" but still had to throw a jab.

[Kalimantan]

anecdote is an anecdote is an anecdote. and, as with all anecdotes, there may be some truth to them. But at least admit as much

Thing is, if you were describing why Ohio is being so stubborn, then I'd have a lot of time for these arguments. But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him. If Obama does 5-6 points worse than his polling on election day, I'll come grovelling, OK?

Instead, I'd love to hear from a PA native where he is getting his margin from, as I trust you when you say that Philly suburbs are not sold.

[Keystone Phil]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

[Kalimantan]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

So you're saying that all these disgruntled Dem's around the Philly 'burbs are still telling pollsters they will vote Obama, but will press the McCain button on November 4th? Why would they do that?

[Keystone Phil]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

So you're saying that all these disgruntled Dem's around the Philly 'burbs are still telling pollsters they will vote Obama, but will press the McCain button on November 4th? Why would they do that?

Not really the suburbs but the city itself (where I am from). A lot of people have other "obligations." Their unions and such are pushing for Obama. They don't want to vote for a Republican. Please re-read my story above. The man is a leader in one of the unions. You don't think plenty of the rank and file members are feeling the same way? Plenty of local Democratic leaders have backed me up on this. It's made the news.