Out of the Blue: A President Reagan in '68 TL

[Historico]

Ok Everyone, here my first crack at this timeline based on atl 1968 scenario...Rick Perlsteing's Nixonland proved extremley helpful in my research of the POD used to get this bird off the ground. Understand that this is just the prelude, and a larger installment on the General Election and the electoral results are comming up real soon. Im looking forward to any and all comments

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Out of the Blue…: A President Reagan in ’68 Timeline
Written by Austin Ross


“Gosh, I was surprised…It all came out of the blue.” Governor Ronald W. Reagan at the Republican Convention in Miami.

Tricky Dick Nixon and his supporters began to get nervous as things in Miami slowly began to unravel after Gov. Reagan announced his candidacy for the President of the United States to a voracious crowd of delegates. Before the former Vice President even knew it, the nomination slowly slipped though his fingers as the charismatic, 1st term Governor won over the Southern Delegates. It had to do with the Southern delegations unit rules, which held that if a majority of the delegation voted for a candidate, the candidate won the delegation unanimously. Cliff White, a close friend of Reagan’s and campaign manager, was able to reign in commitments from the chairs of the Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana and Georgia delegations…and after Reagan personally asked each delegate to put him in over the top, using his charm, acting skills, and telling them not to worry about Strom Thurmond, who would eventually come around was able to confirm each commitments from the old Confederacy.

After doing this Reagan then moved in onto the South Carolina delegation and Senator Strom Thurmond himself. The Governor was able to remind him that he was his first choice to receive the nomination and told the old Senator to follow his heart. Thurmond after receiving confirmation that Reagan would follow up on his pet project on Antiballistic missile systems, called Nixon to inform that he was withdrawing support and to expect the other Southern Delegations to do the same.

Upon receiving that call Nixon knew that between himself, Rockefeller and Reagan, he would not receive enough delegates to win on the first ballot and that Ronald Reagan would eventually clinch the nomination. This knowledge soon became truth, after several rounds of balloting with Rockefeller dropping out of first, only telling his delegates to endorse Reagan after word got out that the old trouper would choose the moderate Governor John A. Volpe of Massachusetts as his running mate. Bitter, at yet another campaign loss, Nixon finally conceded to the inevitable and endorsed Governor Reagan to become the Republican Party’s nominee for the 1968 General Election.

His impromptu nomination speech would be focused on a need for unity for both the party and the nation for healing but it would also stress the need for new kind of politics, leadership and ideas. All of which is reinforced into the three way race, that the Gipper would face in the fall.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I look forward to reading this

[pragmatic liberal]

Good start. Only thing is I can't imagine Reagan -- or any Republican in '68 -- would have picked Jacob Javits as his running mate. Javits was just about the most liberal Republican in the Senate, and was far more liberal than even many liberal Democrats.

If Reagan were tasked with picking a moderate or a liberal Republican, I'd think that any of the following would have been more realistic:

Gov. John Volpe of Massachusetts
(Fmr.) Gov. Bill Scranton of Pennsylvania
Sen. Howard Baker of Tennessee

All's said and done, I wonder whether Reagan would have been able to win in '68 -- it was a transition time, but I'm not sure the country was ready for an anti-government "Reagan" revolution, especially considering Goldwater had been rejected in a 2-1 landslide just four years earlier.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Gov. John Volpe of Massachusetts
(Fmr.) Gov. Bill Scranton of Pennsylvania
Sen. Howard Baker of Tennessee

Governor Volpe seems like the most realistic running mate option for Governor Reagan if he somehow won the Republican Nomination in 1968 out of three potential candidates you have mentioned. Governor Scranton or Senator Baker, although qualified candidates for the Vice Presidency of the United States wouldn't be selected due to their political inexperience.

[Scam of God]

All's said and done, I wonder whether Reagan would have been able to win in '68 -- it was a transition time, but I'm not sure the country was ready for an anti-government "Reagan" revolution, especially considering Goldwater had been rejected in a 2-1 landslide just four years earlier.

And if he did win, I question his ability to govern effectively. The peace movement resented Nixon much more than it ever did Lyndon Johnson, and Nixon governed as a moderate who was willing to engage in dialogue with the activists. There would be a tremendous risk of Reagan sending in the National Guard to bust up protests and some hippie getting shot and being captured on film and that would be all she wrote for the Reagan Administration. Ronald Reagan would not meet them at midnight in the Lincoln Memorial, to say the least.

[Historico]

Gov. John Volpe of Massachusetts
(Fmr.) Gov. Bill Scranton of Pennsylvania
Sen. Howard Baker of Tennessee

Governor Volpe seems like the most realistic running mate option for Governor Reagan if he somehow won the Republican Nomination in 1968 out of three potential candidates you have mentioned. Governor Scranton or Senator Baker, although qualified candidates for the Vice Presidency of the United States wouldn't be selected due to their political inexperience.

I have decided to go back and change Reagan's running mate to Governor Volpe after some thorough convincing from my fellow members of the board. I was just sure about would a first term Governor pick another Governor to run with? But Javits to me makes the most sense to me electorally, esp given how relativley close New York was in OTL...

[Historico]

Gov. John Volpe of Massachusetts
(Fmr.) Gov. Bill Scranton of Pennsylvania
Sen. Howard Baker of Tennessee

Governor Volpe seems like the most realistic running mate option for Governor Reagan if he somehow won the Republican Nomination in 1968 out of three potential candidates you have mentioned. Governor Scranton or Senator Baker, although qualified candidates for the Vice Presidency of the United States wouldn't be selected due to their political inexperience.

I have to agree with you T, that Volpe does sound like the most realistic choice, by the time of the '68 election He had already been Gov for almost 10 years....and that if Reagan picked either Scranton or Baker, It would be to much inexperience for the American people

[Historico]

All's said and done, I wonder whether Reagan would have been able to win in '68 -- it was a transition time, but I'm not sure the country was ready for an anti-government "Reagan" revolution, especially considering Goldwater had been rejected in a 2-1 landslide just four years earlier.

And if he did win, I question his ability to govern effectively. The peace movement resented Nixon much more than it ever did Lyndon Johnson, and Nixon governed as a moderate who was willing to engage in dialogue with the activists. There would be a tremendous risk of Reagan sending in the National Guard to bust up protests and some hippie getting shot and being captured on film and that would be all she wrote for the Reagan Administration. Ronald Reagan would not meet them at midnight in the Lincoln Memorial, to say the least.

I do have some fun things planned for Reagan and his relations with the Peace Movement in TTL, but I must say taking a hard line against the Hippies is not necessarily a bad thing to the majority of Middle Class Americans esp in the South. What I can promise though is that it's effects will be interesting to say the least lol

[Matt Damon™]

Given how this would be 'lets have war on america's campuses reagan' and not OTL 1980 Reagan expect his administration to be far right socially and foreign-policy wise and center-statist on economics. Basically we see the dixiecrats, labor union types and social cons merging into a different form of fusionism

[Person Man]

Given how this would be 'lets have war on america's campuses reagan' and not OTL 1980 Reagan expect his administration to be far right socially and foreign-policy wise and center-statist on economics. Basically we see the dixiecrats, labor union types and social cons merging into a different form of fusionism

Basically, old school nationalism instead of the market based nationalism we know today that makes up the conservative movement.

[Historico]

Ok everyone, here's the next installment on the general election and the electoral results of this atl 1968...enjoy!!!

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We few, We Happy few: The 1968 General Election and its results.

   Ronald Reagan, following his successful “Stop Nixon” entered the 1968 General Election riding on a wave of enthusiasm from his supporters not seen since before Bobby Kennedy’s assassination. Electorally, Reagan and his staff believed that he could already count on the votes from the West Coast and the Midwest. However, the gipper could be in a fight in the South and the Industrial Northeast in order to receive the threshold of 270 electoral votes. To help Reagan in the Northeast was his running mate, the 61st & 63rd Governor of Massachusetts…John A. Volpe. Although, many pundits began to turn a deaf ear to the ticket due to a significant lack of foreign experience, many Working Class Whites and Urban Blacks slowly began to warm up to Volpe on the campaign stump as he reminded voters of some of his past achievements as Governor. The modern Horatio Agler, a term coined by Reagan, soon became known across the nation for his support of ethics regulations, campaign finance reports, education reform and increases in public housing for lower income families.

   Yet as the Governor’s stock began to rise in the North, his poll numbers began to dip slightly in the South enough so that if forced Reagan to do a new Southern tour. He was able to reassure voters that he will keep the promises made to their delegates in Miami, restoration to Law and Order and strikes a chord during a campaign speech in Hope, Arkansas when he announced that “Programs like education and others should be turned back to the states and local communities with the tax sources to fund them. I believe in states’ rights. I believe in people doing as much as they can at the community level and the private level." He also focus most of his attacks during his southern tour on George Wallace, as someone who couldn’t possibly win in the electoral candidate and as someone who plays to peoples fears/not to their hopes.

   The Vice-President had the unfortunate opportunity of being the lightening rod for what all was seen wrong with the Johnson administration. He promised to expand the Great Society and continue the “War on Poverty” started by LBJ as well as a continuation of the expansion of civil rights for minority groups. However, the happy warrior felt as if he could not voice any opposition to the Vietnam War as any peace proposal would be shot down by the 36th President. All of which would be reiterated by Ronald Reagan, who frequently quoted a late August Time Magazine article that “The old Democratic coalition was disintegrating, with untold numbers of blue-collar workers responding to Wallace's blandishments, Negroes threatening to sit out the election, liberals disaffected over the Viet Nam War, the South lost. The war chest was almost empty, and the party's machinery, neglected by Lyndon Johnson, creaked in disrepair.”

   All three ideologies would be seen nationally in contrast to each other on a sole Presidential debate broadcast in late October. All of the candidates would stick to their guns, but Reagan is seen as the winner of the debate as he made clear of his opposition to Earl Warren’s Supreme Court, He would also plan to end the draft as soon a true victory became within sights. Humphrey valiant attempt to showcase Reagan as an ultra light weight Goldwaterite floundered but he successfully portrayed Wallace as a racist bigot further cementing his decline with union workers in the North and the Midwest. One of the most memorable lines of the debate came from the gipper, when after Humphrey makes a rather long winded comparison between his GOP opponent’s relatively short records to his long tenure in the Senate, Reagan replies back to Humphrey “There you go again Mr. Vice President…”

   Although this would greatly boost Reagan’s image to the American people, it would be an “October Surprise” which featured President Johnson announcing of a bombing halt and even a peace deal possibly by the weekend before the election, which would through the election into a toss up by election night. The Reagan/Volpe campaign used their communication skills and a new friend in former Rockefeller ally Henry Kissinger to be able to stall the South Vietnamese from making any peace talk until January under a new administration. President Nguyen Van Thieu obliged, thus stunting the surmounting Humphrey candidacy.

   By election night, November 5th, 1968 with the results proved to be extremely tight. Ronald Reagan and John Volpe with their families, closet advisors and staff all nervously watched the returns come in at the Governor’s mansion in Sacramento. On the East coast, Reagan lost a majority of the states including Maine, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the District of Columbia all remain in the Democratic column. Humphrey would also barely squeeze by Reagan in Governor Volpe’s home state of Massachusetts on a razor thin margin. However the picking of a Rockefeller Republican was not totally in vain as Reagan was able to pick up the states of New Hampshire, Vermont, New Jersey, and Delaware.

   In the Industrial states, the Vice President work to win back the labor unions and use them as his base was proven to be a largely successful strategy as he won both the states of Pennsylvania and Michigan on fairly comfortable margins. Humphrey would also gain Ohio’s precious 26 electoral votes in a razor thin win over Reagan. Yet the Happy Warrior lost the state of Indiana to Reagan by a wide margin and lost the state of Illinois in a heartbreaker.

   The third-party candidate George Wallace’s hope of forcing the election to the House of Representatives soon became dashed as the results from the South came pouring in and it became evident that Wallace and Reagan effectively split the conservative vote. Reagan’s campaign became invigorated as he won the states of Kentucky, Virginia and Florida all on very comfortable margins. The gipper would also bring Tennessee, The Carolinas and surprisingly the state of Arkansas on very slim margins into the GOP column. Although the Reagan/Volpe campaign had hoped for a surprise victory in Texas, it would be Hubert Humphrey who would come away with its 25 electoral votes. Wallace, once the favorite son of the old Confederacy, only gains the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia and his home state of Alabama.

   Humphrey would only with the states of Minnesota and just barely in Wisconsin as Ronald Reagan swept all of the Midwestern states, just as his campaign managers had predicted. Yet as the results slowly came in for the West Coast, the electoral count stood at Reagan 221, Humphrey 216, and Wallace at 39. Word soon came into Sacramento that California was going to be really close and that the governor very well might loose his home state. It worried the gipper so much that he had prepared his concession speech and told Cliff White’s fifteen year old daughter, who was disconsolate at the possibility of a Reagan loss, “Carole, the good Lord knows what He is doing. This might not be out turn.”

   The feeling of uncertainty was felt by all Americans, who had to wait until the next morning to hear the final count and just exactly who would their next president be. It soon became apparent when Vice President Humphrey only picked up the states of Washington and Hawaii and that not only did Ronald Reagan secure his home state of California precious 40 electoral votes, but he also picked up the states of Oregon and Alaska as well. The former B movie star and 1st term Governor was on January 20th, 1969 to become the 37th President of the United States…with the final electoral vote count at Reagan with 270, Humphrey with 229 and with Wallace placing a distant third with 39 electoral votes.

[Historico]

Given how this would be 'lets have war on america's campuses reagan' and not OTL 1980 Reagan expect his administration to be far right socially and foreign-policy wise and center-statist on economics. Basically we see the dixiecrats, labor union types and social cons merging into a different form of fusionism

Basically its the same coalation that arose in OTL in the 80's but I think in TTL's this coalation is a lot more fractious esp due to the politics of the 70's and the same crises that arise in TTL as well.

[Historico]

Given how this would be 'lets have war on america's campuses reagan' and not OTL 1980 Reagan expect his administration to be far right socially and foreign-policy wise and center-statist on economics. Basically we see the dixiecrats, labor union types and social cons merging into a different form of fusionism

Basically, old school nationalism instead of the market based nationalism we know today that makes up the conservative movement.

Yep, by george I think you got it lol...You got a remember it's about ten years to early for supply side economics, and Reagan very well may try to raise taxes to get a balanced budget. So the economy should be around the same as it was in OTL under Nixon and Ford.

[Historico]

Phew, Sorry for the wait everyone, It took alot more research to get this new installment off the ground than I had thought. So I hope I don't dissapoint and remember all comments are welcome...So I hope you all enjoy...and the next installment will cover The 1972 Primaries and the General election, so stay tuned.

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A Rendezvous with Destiny: The 1st term of President Ronald Wilson Reagan


   On January, 20th 1969, the actor from Illinois, Ronald W. Reagan was sworn in as the 37th President of the United States of America. Surrounded by his wife, First Lady Nancy Reagan, along with Chief Justice Earl Warren, President Johnson, his new Vice President John A. Volpe and finally his Democratic opponent in the fall campaign former Vice President Hubert Humphrey stood with a sense of Optimism and Leadership as he took the oath of office. In his Inaugural Address, meticulously crafted by former Nixon speechwriter, Pat Buchanan, spoke to heal all the nations wounds, in which the best part of the speech was when he alluded back to his “A time for choosing” speech from ’64 when he said…”I have faith that you have the ability and the dignity and the right to make your own decisions and to determine your own destiny…Thank you, may god bless you and god bless America.” His cabinet would reflect this new sense of Independence as it featured a team of rivals not seen since the last President who came from Illinois.

Secretary of State: Richard M. Nixon
Secretary of Treasury: Milton Friedman
Secretary of Defense: Henry Kissinger
Attorney General: James A. Rhodes
Postmaster General: Winton M. Blout
Secretary of Interior: John Tower
Secretary of Labor: Arthur Fletcher
Secretary of Agriculture: Robert Dole
Secretary of Commerce: George W. Romney
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare: William Scranton
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Secretary of Transportation: Margaret Chase Smith   

The first obstacle that President Reagan faced was on not only to end the War in Vietnam but under what circumstances could the United States “win” the War. In the early months of his term, President Regan went against the suggested strategy of Vietnamization supported by both Sec. Nixon and Sec. Kissinger and sided with General Creighton Abrams and the continuation of his total reconstruction of the war from the Search and Destroy tactics of Westmoreland. However as protesters still clamored for an immediate withdrawal from Southeast Asia, Reagan made a nationally televised address on November 3rd, 1969 calling on the “Silent Majority” of Americans to keep their faith in the abilities of their government and to support his policy of Winning the Vietnam War.  He and UN ambassador Barry Goldwater unveiled the policy known as “The Village”, which entailed that current American troop levels would remain the same (around 600,000) in order to regain control of the villages. President Reagan was able through his skills of communication and with a little help from Pat Buchanan’s speeches, to make the majority of Americans understand that eventual victory required civilian support for the South Vietnamese Government and this support required the United States to provide villagers with physical security from the Vietcong. The operation proved largely to be a success and by late 1970 to early 1971, The United States had essentially won the Vietnam War, where basically the Vietcong were defeated on the field, effective control was returned to most of the South Vietnamese population, the South Vietnamese armed forces could continue the war on their own, so long as we provided them with adequate supplies and intelligence, and carried through on our promise to bomb the North if they violated peace agreements.

   
Reagan would also approve the secret bombing campaign of North Vietnamese positions in Cambodia in March of 1969(Operation Seek) to obliterate what was believed to be the headquarters of the National Front for the Liberation of Vietnam. Although the operation was considered by the Air Force to be largely a success, the gipper received starch criticism for his bombing of Laos and Cambodia. This criticism soon erupted into full blown protests that caused the closure of 536 Universities, Colleges and High Schools, with the biggest being that of the so called Massacre at Kent State. In March of 1970, President Reagan and Attorney General Rhodes, who actually went down to the site of the riot to support his former lieutenant Governor John William Brown and the Ohio National Guard in squashing the rebellion. Although, the riot resulted in deaths of four students, President Reagan never made a public apology, and in private conversation simply said “They got what they deserved”. President Reagan formed the Gates Commission to look into ending the military service draft implemented under the preceding President. The Gates Commission issued its report in February 1970, describing how adequate military strength could be maintained without having conscription. The draft was extended to January 1973, though it was not continued after that. Military pay was increased as an incentive to attract volunteers, and television advertising for the United States Army began.

   
In other aspects of foreign policy, President Reagan made up for their virtual shut out of in Vietnam by allowing Secretary of State Nixon and Secretary of Defense Kissinger  to have a relatively free hand in everything else. Nixon under the banner of the Reagan Administration guided the foreign policy by forging new links with rivals in order to reduce international tensions. In February 1972, President Reagan and Sec. Nixon traveled to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai in China for talks with Chinese leaders Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai. Reagan's trip was the first high-level contact between the United States and the People's Republic of China in more than twenty years, and it ushered in a new era of relations between Washington and Beijing. Several weeks later, in May 1972, Reagan as advised by his Secretary of State, visited Moscow for a summit meeting with Leonid Brezhnev, general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and other Soviet leaders. Their talks led to the signing of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, the first comprehensive and detailed nuclear weapons limitation pact between the two superpowers.
   
On the Domestic Front, President Reagan during his first term largely kept true to his rather libertarian dogma. On the economy, Reagan worked hard with his widely renowned and respected Treasury Secretary Milton Friedman on what would be the most efficient way of freeing America from “The Burden of a Welfare Society”. In August, of 1969, the gipper revealed the Total Economic Reconstruction of Family Assistance (or TERFA) and was sent to Congress for the vote. On an incredibly slim margin, the enhanced TERFA called for implementation a single system which accomplished both the funding of government and the social goal of ensuring a minimum level of income. In the presence of the TERFA, inasmuch as that the social goal is reached, it potentially removed the need for minimum wage, food stamps, welfare, social security programs and so on, while requiring a fraction of the administrative effort, and avoiding the pitfalls and perverse incentives which exist in systems with overlapping aid programs. A worker under TERFA always gets the same portion of each marginal dollar earned, so there is always an equal incentive to work. Finally the TERFA System would reduce administrative overhead, since the large bureaucracies responsible for administering taxation and welfare systems could be eliminated. Yet, it was an addition put into the bill which guaranteed an Annual Income to sweeten the deal for liberals in order to kill Social Security and Welfare. The resources saved by eliminating these bureaucracies can then be spent on more productive activities. Upon signing of the Bill, President Reagan stated that “Although this is a crowning achievement, in which that the founders of this great nation would be proud…We know that it is not perfect, and I look forward to in the future working with Congress to making sure that this system remains a success.”
   
Another crowning achievement of President Reagan on the economy would be appointment of Democrat economist Paul Volcker to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve. With rising Inflation as a result from years of pursing “Obsolete” New Deal and “Cumbersome” Johnsonian Programs as well as a faltering gold standard, Reagan needed someone who was willing to make new bold decisions on the economy. After a long list of candidates, the economist from New Jersey was chosen to replace the retiring Fed Chair William McChesney Martin, Jr., in early 1970 and it was soon realized how bold this new chair would be. Two of Volcker crowning achievements in the first term, One would be his decision to suspend the gold convertibility in 1971, thus resulted the crash of the Breton Woods system. Volcker and Secretary of Treasury Friedman would often have words on some aspects on policy, but he generally advocated an international solution to monetary problems. His other achievement would be staving off an future Inflation problem, which Reagan saw as “Impending crisis which if it would have been allowed to continue unchecked would have slowed the American Economy to a crawl within ten years.” By instead of the widely popular idea of targeting interesting rates, Volcker went against the consensus and focused on limiting the growth of the money supply. This decision would ensure Volcker’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman for many years to come.
   

[Historico]

On Civil Rights, President Reagan during his first term had more of a mixed message as opposed to his strong achievements in the foreign policy and economic arenas. Initially, the 37th President received rave reviews when he nominated the Black conservative Arthur Fletcher to Secretary of Labor and the well respected Moderate Republican Senator from Maine, Margaret Chase Smith, to the position of Transportation Secretary. However any hopes that President Reagan would be some type of freedom rider for Justice soon became dashed. Reagan showed a relative libertarian approach when it came to desegregation in the South. Strategically, the gipper knew he had to count on the votes of conservative White Democrats to win the 1972 election, and that if he took any hard-line to enforce desegregation, he might very well loose the South to either the Democrats or even more likely another third party run by George Wallace. If it was one thing Reagan was adamantly opposed to school busing, and the President made sure to tell voters on his position especially when he was on the stump during the 1970 congressional elections. President Reagan and his policy of Benign Neglect suggested to him by his HUD Secretary Daniel Patrick Moynihan via memo that “the issue of race could benefit from a period of 'benign neglect'. The subject has been too much talked about....We may need a period in which Negro progress continues and racial rhetoric fades." This policy soon proved to be wrong as the summers in Northern Cities remained Hot during Reagan’s 1st term as the influence and power of Black Nationalist groups continued to strengthen. President Reagan and his Attorney General Rhodes would use every means necessary as given to them by the federal arsenal in order to hush the voices of dissonance in the minority populace. On the ERA, Reagan became the target of many women’s groups for not coming out openly of supporting it after its passage through Congress in 1971 and for keeping his “Leave it up to the States” policy.
   
Finally, On the Final Frontier, President Reagan made it very clear during the ’68 campaign that he would be enthusiastic about NASA and promised an expansion for the Space Program. On July 19, 1969, astronaut Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong became the first humans to walk on the Earth's moon, while fellow astronaut Michael Collins orbited in the Apollo 11 command module. Reagan made what has been termed the longest-distance telephone call ever made to speak with the astronauts from the Oval Office. With his approval rating floating around 70%, a possible Republican take over of Congress in the ’72 election due to gains made in ’70, Vietnam technically won, and a string of successful Apollo missions to the Moon…The 60 year old President declared that he would seek reelection on July 4th, 1971. Also within the speech, Ronald Reagan announced that he would be sending to Congress a bill which would allow for an expansion of NASA’s budget in order to pay for NASA Administrator Thomas Paine’s ambitious plan that called for the establishment of a lunar base and a massive space station in Earth orbit before the end of the 1970s, culminating in a manned mission to Mars as early as 1981. With a rejuvenated NASA, tolled into the costs of continual aid to the South Vietnamese, and the creation of the TERFA system, the American People experienced on of the largest tax hike in history…but President Reagan was able to reassure voters that if reelected that “Relief will soon be on the way, because America’s future rests in a thousand dreams inside your hearts.”

[PBrunsel]

Historico,

This timeline is well written and interesting. This is a fine work  of alternate history.

[Historico]

Thanks for the reply PB, I really appreciate it

[Historico]

Additions and Corrections: First Term Adjustments

Secretary of State: Henry Kissinger
Secretary of Treasury: Milton Friedman
Secretary of Defense: John Tower
Attorney General: Spiro Agnew
Postmaster General: Winton M. Blout
Secretary of Interior: James A. Rhodes
Secretary of Labor: Arthur Fletcher
Secretary of Agriculture: Robert Dole
Secretary of Commerce: George W. Romney
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare: William Scranton
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Secretary of Transportation: Cliff White
   
   
Ronald Reagan delegated the issues of how to organize his high profile cabinet to his Chief of Staff, and Deputy Chief of Staff…Edwin Meese III and Michael Deaver. During the first term, The “Dynamic Duo” would come to handle the briefing of the President as well as really holding the fractious coalition of egos together. In the foreign policy arena, Reagan had originally offered the job of Secretary of State to former Vice President Nixon, who turned down the offer and that he just wanted to return to “His Practice and act like the ’68 bid never happened. So the 37th President went for the next best thing and nominated Rockefeller advisor Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State. Following the example of Jack Kennedy before him, Ronald Reagan appointed failed 1964 Republican nominee, the same man who jumpstarted his political career, and Arizona Senator…Barry Goldwater to become Ambassador to the UN. Reagan would also reward Texas Senator, John Tower for his staunch support for the War in Vietnam with the appointment to Secretary of Defense. Together these three men, or as they were called the “Troika” would become the face of Reagan’s foreign policy dubbed Rollpolitik by American Journalists. Rollpolitik would still be mainly concerned with eliminating communism in countries where it had not taken place but with more practical considerations before acting on operations.

   

Rollpolitik and the Troika would show its effectiveness almost right away in its dealings with the Soviet Union and Red China. Henry Kissinger knew that if it was one thing that Ronald Reagan wanted to be done on Foreign Policy was to turn the Soviet Union “To the Asheap of History.” He outlined that this could best be done by fighting the Soviets on three fronts by allowing a decrease Soviet access to high technology and diminish their resources, including depressing the value of Soviet commodities on the world market; increase American defense expenditures to strengthen the U.S. negotiating position; and force the Soviets to devote more of their economic resources to defense. Kissinger argued this could best be done by reopening talks with China, which Reagan was at first adamantly against but eventually came around to the idea, as it soon became evident that any true Peace treaty with North Vietnam would have to involve China in some way. In February 1972, President Reagan and Sec. Kissinger traveled to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai in China for talks with Chinese leaders Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai. Reagan's trip was the first high-level contact between the United States and the People's Republic of China in more than twenty years, and it ushered in a new era of relations between Washington and Beijing. That crowning achievement was dwarfed, by Reagan strong opposition to détente was show several weeks later, in May 1972, Reagan as advised by his Secretary of State, visited Moscow for a summit meeting with Leonid Brezhnev, general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and other Soviet leaders. Although a healthy discussion between Brezhnev and Reagan was reported, as both of the old leaders traded argument against argument with one of another. Yet no official deal was made on Strategic Arms Limitations or Anti Ballistic missiles, they both came to an agreement that the Mutual assured destruction can not be the only solution and that other methods of defense against Nuclear War and the Destruction of Human Civilization must be put in place.

[Psychic Octopus]

This is awesome......

[Historico]

Hats in the Ring: The 1972 US Presidential Election

1972 Democratic Nomination
   
By early 1971, as President Reagan’s approval rating held pretty steady the mid 50’s to low 60’s in most of the country, due to his strong foreign policy achievements and week stance on Civil Rights. This perceived weakness, opened the Democratic Field to a large number of candidates, each hoping to win their party’s nomination and rebound it from the chaos of the 1968 Convention in Chicago.

Senator George McGovern of South Dakota
Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota
Governor George Wallace of Alabama
Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine
Former Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota
Congressman Wilbur Mills of Arkansas
Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson of Washington
Representative Shirley Chisholm of New York
Former Governor Terry Sanford of North Carolina

   Following the 1968 loss, many within the Democratic Party had hoped for a restoration of Camelot in the candidacy of Senate Majority Whip Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts as the favorite to win the 1972 nomination. However, these dreams were destroyed due to Teddy’s involvement in the Chappaquiddick incident in 1969, which resulted in the death of Mary Joe Kopechne. However, the focus soon became on Senator Edmund Muskie, VP Hubert Humphrey’s running mate in 1968 as he cleared the path to become the front runner of the race by winning most of the early primary states.

   So the media focused in on Florida, a state in which Representative Shirley Chisholm vigorously campaigned in since her early entry into the race in 1971. The Alabama Governor, George Wallace due to his outsider image did very well in the South, and in a few of the industrial states in the north among blue-collar voters. Wallace would come to win Florida with 29% of the vote, with Muskie placing second and, in a shock finish, Chisholm narrowly edging Humphrey, who did not openly campaign, based upon high black voter turnout (as a result of her extensive campaign in the state). This result knocked out the candidacies of McGovern, Sanford, McCarthy, Humphrey and Jackson out of the race, and severely weakened the Wallace campaign. In the next major primary, Wisconsin, Although Muskie ultimately won the state, Chisholm finished third with 18% of the vote. Wallace matched this with a victory in Pennsylvania based upon support from working-class whites; the battle between the Northeastern Senator and the Southern Governor would soon be made apparent as the two would trade primary victories for the rest of the process. Representative Chisholm came away with surprise wins in Massachusetts and Maryland in May. Her win in Maryland is due to the fact that Wallace, saw little prospect for victory in the state, thus did not campaign there. The Representative from New York’s upstart candidacy was largely due to overwhelming support from middle-class liberals and from black voters, which in turn allowed Chisholm to win caucuses in the South.

At the convention in Miami, 1507 delegates are needed for victory. Wallace has 1100, Muskie has 800, and Chisholm has 450, with the rest scattering. The other candidates pledge to support Muskie in a 'stop Wallace' movement; however, Chisholm extracted a bargain of pledged support in 1976 or 1980 from the party machine. Finally, after a few rounds of balloting, it soon became clear that Senator Edmund Muskie was the Democratic Party’s nominee for President. However, Senator Muskie’s choice for a running mate was not an easy one to make, as rumors began to swirl around the convention hall that either Wallace’s Southern Delegates or those from the New Left could very well walk out and run as a third party. Ultimately, Muskie decided that holding onto the South would be the only chance at beating Reagan in November and that the New Left although it’s grassroots support for the McGovern candidacy, it simply wasn’t that big of a movement to tip the election in any significant way. He picked former North Carolina Governor and Democratic primary opponent Terry Sanford as his Vice Presidential Running mate. Sanford, known for his progressive leadership of Civil Rights and Education, is seen as a strong choice within the party, with all factions promising to valiantly support the Muskie/Sanford ticket during the general election.

1972 Republican Nomination

   After they declared their intention to seek a Second term on July 4th, 1971 the ticket of Reagan/Volpe ran unchallenged through the primaries. Despite grumblings, the moderate wing of the party on the War and some on the conservative wing of the party against Reagan’s opening of talks with China, no serious challenge was mounted. Although a popular Incumbent President, Reagan would insist on openly campaigning, to show the American People that for a couple of older gentlemen, the ticket could still show their support for them. That decision would come back to haunt Ronald Reagan, While in Laurel, Maryland on May 15th, 1972, the 37th president was fired upon four times by the crazed Arthur Bremer. While two of the Bullets harmlessly fired into the air, two of them hit the president as one pierced his left lung, narrowing missing his heart and the other grazed his left shoulder.

   After having emergency surgery to remove the bullet, Reagan joked to the surgeons, “I hope you are all Republicans!”, although they were not, one of the surgeons replied back, “Today Mr. President we’re all Republicans.” After a temporary transference of power to Vice President Volpe, American’s were relieved to find out that the operation was a success and that the gipper was in high spirits. It was reported, when First Lady Nancy Reagan came to see him in the Hospital, the President told her “Honey, I forgot to duck.” Nancy however was still furious and asked to Chief of Staff Edwin Meese, “How could this have happened!” Security around the President became tighter than ever as he discontinued all of his planned campaign stops, taking time to full recover. By the time the convention rolled around, the President’s approval rating’s sky rocketed to 75%, with his re-nomination secured by acclamation and chants of “Four More Years!” The Charismatic President simply replied back, “Ok, I’m willing if you are!”

[Historico]

The 1972 General Election

   With the Approval Rating of the Incumbent President still in the mid ‘70’s at the start of the General Election, it was the job of the Muskie/Sanford campaign to play catch up. The Democratic ticket ran on a campaign on a platform on an end to the Vietnam War, in favor of Desegregation, education reform and promising a return to the Great Society programs of the ‘60’s, in an appeal to the fraying New Deal coalition, those on the New Left and Minority groups They would campaign hard in the South, especially in Terry Sanford’s North Carolina, where the former Governor still remained very popular. Some would say that Senator Muskie’s campaign would try unnecessarily harsh tactics in most of its campaign spots, comparable to that of LBJ’s campaign in ’64 against Barry Goldwater.

   On the Republican Side, most of the actual campaign on the stump was done by surrogates from the administration. President Reagan would actually appear in a few heavily guarded campaign stops, while Vice President Volpe and others went out to promote the former governor’s ideals to the American people. In the media, most of the campaign spots, would convey a sense of “Morning in America”, promoting the administration’s achievements on Vietnam, a strengthened economy, and a restoration of Law and Order at home. Although many inside the campaigned clamored for more aggressive attacks against Muskie, especially after rumors floated within headquarters that someone had forged a letter that claimed the Muskie made disparaging remarks against French Canadians. These television spots found a more receptive audience in voters who were turned off by Muskie’s claim that “It’s not a Movie Ron!” and “Do you really want this cowboy squeezing the Nuclear Trigger?”

   All of it would come to a head, at the sole Presidential debate in early October as many Americans were eager to see such stark differences on the screen. The debate in itself would prove to be rather dry, as both men had a deep knowledge on policy proposals on both the domestic and the foreign arenas. Ronald Reagan, who was memorable in the ’68 debate as being the witty, energetic California Governor, was a bit slower in his speech and had a tendency to hesitate a lot when answering questions. Yet, the President is generally seen as having won the debate, or at least won over voters with one line in his closing statement, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” However, after the Debate the Muskie/Sanford Campaign, would see it’s poll numbers increase quite a bit as they chipped away at what was a 20 point held by Reagan during the Summer. However the “October Surprise”, would not be in the Muskie/Sanford Campaign’s favor, as President Reagan announced that he would be making an emergency trip to France, for the signing of the Paris Peace Accords, of 1972.

   The treaty was to establish peace in Vietnam and end to the Vietnam conflict, with a halt of fighting between Northern and Southern forces and ended direct military involvement from the United States. Some of the provisions included a ceasefire which was to take place November 1st, in which both were forced to hold onto their current positions.  After November 1st, once the Ceasefire had officially taken place, The United States would begin to withdraw its military forces, with the withdrawal complete within 60 days, and along with the release of US Prisoners of War. Negotiations between Saigon and the Vietcong towards a political settlement that would allow the South Vietnamese people to "decide themselves the political future of South Viet-Nam through genuinely free and democratic general elections under international supervision." Reunification of Vietnam was to be "carried out step by step through peaceful means." President Reagan also made it very clear to the South Vietnam leaders “We will not hesitate to use airpower in the event that North Vietnam tries to overwhelm the South.” After the signing, President Reagan, Secretary Kissinger and the American Delegation returned home to roaring crowds only a few days before the election.



   By November 7th, with the Signing of the Paris Peace Accords, along with it went any chance for the Democrats to win back the White House. President Reagan would be reelected in a landslide victory on all accounts, as he even secured the electoral votes of the extremely close states of Iowa, Illinois and Vice President Volpe’s home state of Massachusetts.  Senator Muskie would only walk away with electoral votes from the states of Oregon, South Dakota, Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, his home state of Maine and the District of Columbia on decent margins. The Democrats could also take solace in the fact that they snagged the extremely close states of Minnesota, Michigan and in Vice Presidential Nominee Terry Sanford’s North Carolina away from the President. The final electoral tally for the 1972 US Presidential election would be Reagan 406 electoral votes to Muskie’s 132.  One election night, President Reagan answered the chants of “Four More Years!” from his loyal supporters with his charm, “I think that has just been arranged!”

In other good news for President Reagan, as the Republican retook the Senate due to his coattails, holding on to a slim majority with 52 seats compared to 46 of the Democrats. Some of the Republican Senators who were kept their seats were Sen. Gordon L. Allot of Colorado, Sen. J. Caleb Boggs of Delaware, and Sen. Jack Miller of Iowa, along with Sen. George H.W. Bush (filled John Tower’s spot after appointment to Secretary of Defense). Newcomers included Fletcher Thompson of Georgia, Louie B. Nunn of Kentucky, and John Chafee of Rhode Island. The Democrats however retained a slim lead in the House of Representatives.

[Historico]

This is awesome......

Thanks NiK...Annyone else have any comments? I'd love to hear some other ideas on what Reagan might do on Policy and things of that nature.

[Historico]

Shining City upon a Hill: The Second Term of Ronald W. Reagan

   On January 20th, 1973, the 61 year old President took the oath of office from his newly appointed Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court Warren Burger. A highlight of his second inaugural address “When we met here four years ago, America was bleak in spirit, depressed by the prospect of seemingly endless war abroad and of destructive conflict at home. As we meet here today, I stand here to let the American People know that America, almost 200 years after the birth of this republic, is still a Shinning City upon a Hill!” With his first term administration virtually intact, President Reagan set out during his second term to finish the goals which he had promised in both the ’68 and ’72 campaign.

   One of his first goals, he wanted to achieve was that of the economy…Although Inflation was down, Volcker and his Federal Reserve tightened the money supply and rose interest rates. This combined with effects of the 1973 Oil Crisis it became apparent the United States economy would suffer a severe Recession for a few years. After his massive Tax hike during his first term, President Reagan gave relief to the American People with a Freidman supported, across the board tax cut on the middle class. He would also let the 1971 Price controls expire, all of whom did not keep the stock market from crashing in a period that lasted from January 1973 to December 1974. The Crash was crated by several different factors including; the collapse of the Breton woods system, The “Reagan Shock” (His talks with Red China), and the United States dollar devaluement.



   The 1973-1974 Stock Market crash could also be compounded by the Yom Kippur War and the following oil crisis. With President Reagan being the valiant supporter of the nation of Israel he was, the gipper did not hesitate when the Jewish nation asked for a large number of American weapons to help fight off an Arab Coalition led by Soviet-allied Egypt and Syria in October, 1973. President Reagan would justify his decision to support Israel on a national Broadcast, in which he controversially quoted President Theodore Roosevelt, when he said “We stand at the battle of Armageddon and we do battle for the Lord!” By the time both President Reagan and General Secretary Brezhnev negotiated a truce, the Israeli armed forces had already penetrated deep into homelands of the coalition. It would be soon be realized that the Israeli victory was a Pyrrhic one as the members of OPEC rose oil prices in response to President Reagan’s support for Israel.

   Once Reagan decided to move America against the Gold Standard, many foreign nations increased their currency reserves in fear that possible currency fluctuation could result due to the drastic measure. This in turn led to the deflation of the dollar and other currencies, which caused OPEC who traded oil in dollars to ultimately receive fewer dollars for their product. In acknowledgment of this, OPEC, cut production levels, hiked prices, and an Embargo placed against the United States along with the Netherlands. As Oil and Gasoline products skyrocketed in the US, President Reagan went against the Republican Congress’ idea of a lowered speed limit to 55mph to conserve gasoline…Instead the gipper sent forward to Congress a comprehensive bill, co-authored by Vice President Volpe and Secretary of Transportation Cliff White, that would allow for the creation of multiple Nuclear Power Plants to be built across the United States which in turn would power a sprawling infrastructure plan to support the electric train system of Amtrak. The Republican congress grudgingly passed the massive spending ball and Americans saw almost instantaneous relief at the pump.




   Another major reason for the passing of the bill was President Reagan’s sweetener for the Democrats in the form of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). He would also gain praise around the country for his continued adamant support of NASA as he oversaw both the launches of Apollo 19 and 20 both with dual Saturn V rockets. The 1973 Apollo mission brought the lunar module shelter onto the surface followed by a Lunar Orbital Survey mission. Two of the Astronauts will stay inside the makeshift lunar shelter for fourteen days as one of the Astronauts performs all of the necessary excursion work via Rover. However, President Reagan’s good relationship with Democrats would not last, as he rejected a plan created by his HUD Secretary Daniel Patrick Moynihan for comprehensive Health Care Insurance. Citing it went against his libertarian beliefs, the rejection of the plan soon proved to be the last straw for Moynihan, who soon resigned the office in December of 1973. Although he would be replaced by James Thomas Lynn, former Secretary Moynihan would take his experience into his run in the 1974 New York Gubernatorial election. He would beat out primary opponent Hugh Carey and Governor Malcolm Wilson with 58% of the vote.

   The Republican slim majority in Congress would fall in the 1974 largely due to poor economic state of the nation. Another contributing factor in the Democratic sweep was the lack of trust in the Reagan Administration largely due to reports early in Reagan’s second term that Attorney General Spiro Agnew was under investigation by the United States Attorney’s office in Maryland. By October 1973, AG Spiro Agnew would be formally charged conspiracy, tax fraud, extortion and bribery. In addition to those crimes, it is reported that Agnew accepted more than 100,000 dollars worth in bribes during his tenure as Baltimore County Executive, Governor of Maryland and Attorney General of the United States. He would quickly resign the office of Attorney General, and was replaced by the Popular Tennessee Senator Howard Baker. Although well- known for his skills as a Negotiator, the pick of Howard Baker did not help the Reagan Administration approval ratings in any way as most of American’s blamed Reagan for poor oversight in the matters involving Spiro Agnew.

The 1974 Midterm Elections

   In the wake of the economic recession and stock market crash of 1973-1974, any idea that the Republicans would hold onto to their slim control over the Senate soon became shattered as Senate Democrats locked up their majority 61 to 38. In the House, the Democrats would pick up 49 seats which pushed them over the necessary 2/3 majority rule. The American People sent their message clear to President Reagan that he would either have to learn compromise or face a potential shutdown of the Federal Government…

[Historico]

Shining City upon a Hill: Part 2

   During the final two years of his Presidency, many Historians tend to agree that the 37th President became generally more focused on what kind of legacy; he would leave within the world as we see a shift from the fiery rhetoric of his first term shift into almost a more nostalgic tone. He had “won’’ the Vietnam War, instituted Welfare Reform, Re-opened communications with China, and oversaw an ambitious NASA Program that JFK could only dream of. Although already a Hero to the conservative movement, many on the opposite political spectrum still thought of him as Untrustworthy due to his lack of a push for more progressive Civil Rights legislation, failure to come out in support the ERA, and his stubbornness in talks with Soviet General Secretary Brezhnev. One possibility could be that; he was forced to relent on some of the harsher term by the 94th Congress who had the ability, with their 2/3rds majority, to over-ride a Presidential Veto and that Reagan just did not want to be seen as an old lame duck President. Some historians believe that Reagan felt as if, especially after the 1972 Assassination attempt, that he was chosen by God to be the President that he could be and that he felt he had so much he still wanted to accomplish.

   Luckily for the 37th President, the combination of lowered interest rates and deficit spending slowly led to economic recovery. With unemployment down by 3% by November 1976, Inflation down 5%, and a strong rise in corporate earnings…Reagan’s ’72 campaign slogan of “Morning in America” finally began to bear some fruit in the eyes of the American People. However there was one thorn still in the gipper’s side and that was that of the gas lines. Although, after the signing of his Nuclear Power Bill in 1974, prices initially dropped mostly due to future speculation, Gasoline prices rose once again in 1975 as OPEC refused to relent either by raising production levels or lowering their prices. The 94th congress overrode a Presidential Veto by Reagan to bring back the price controls on Domestic Oil. Also, President Reagan refused to use a federal Bailout for the city of New York when faced with possible bankruptcy.

   President Reagan during this period was also given a new enemy target, this one not a nation built by the minds of man, but that of a “bug” smaller than the tiniest of human cells. Influenza strain H1N1 or as it is now commonly known as “Swine Flu”; was a virus that primarily only affected pigs yet by the early 1970’s had mutated into a strand that was susceptible to Humans. When an army recruit died in February 1976, and doctors said that it was due to the “Swine Flu”, President Reagan was faced with the very frightening possibility of a potential pandemic. Reagan followed the advice from the public health officials in his administration and demanded that all Americans be vaccinated. In the end only 25% of the total population would receive the shots, and ironically more people actually died from the vaccinations themselves than the actual virus.

   Another triumph of the Reagan administration would be the gipper’s signing of the Education of All Handicapped Children Act of 1975. The bill established the first true special education legislation throughout the United States. Also in 1975, revelations soon became known about past CIA activities that were anything but legal. Theses “activities” included illegal domestic spying, Operation CHAOS, public experimentation of LSD, assassinations and attempted assassinations on foreign leaders all of whom provided more than enough evidence need for Congress to perform some type of oversight on the CIA. Chaired by Idaho Senator Frank Church, the Church Committee with its findings on the abuses of the CIA eventually led to the creation of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC).


   On Foreign Policy, President Reagan continued the policy of Rollpolitik especially during the Fall of Saigon in 1975. Although the 37th President had promised the South Vietnamese, that the American Government wouldn’t hesitate to use airpower to rollback the North Vietnamese in case of an invasion. However, when the North Vietnamese did invade and ultimately conquer the south, President Reagan went along with his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s proposed solution of Operation Frequent Wind. With Military/Air America Helicopters and US Navy ships off shore, around 1,373 US Citizens, 5,595 Vietnamese were successfully evacuated out of Southeast Asia. The gipper was also convinced by Secretary Kissinger, that some type of bilateral talks with Brezhnev and the Soviet Union on Nuclear Weapons. What came out of these rather rigorous debate sessions was that of the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks or SALT, an agreement where strategic ballistic missile launchers were frozen at their existing levels. Although Kissinger truly believed more progress could have been made, many Historians feel as if Reagan’s signing of SALT was another crowning achievement of his administration.

   The 37th President would come to end his administration on a high note, mostly being to the fact that he was the incumbent President during the nation’s bicentennial celebrations. Ronald Reagan seemed to be reinvigorated during the anniversary’s many events and during an incredible display of fireworks on July 4th in Washington D.C., he delivered one of the strongest speeches of his career. Reagan said, “And that's about all I have to say tonight. Except for one thing. The past few days when I've been at that window upstairs, I've thought a bit of the "shining city upon a hill." The phrase comes from John Winthrop, who wrote it to describe the America he imagined. What he imagined was important because he was an early Pilgrim, an early freedom man. He journeyed here on what today we'd call a little wooden boat; and like the other Pilgrims, he was looking for a home that would be free. I've spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don't know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace, a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity, and if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it and see it still.”

[Landslide Lyndon]

Excellent piece.
Bravo Historico.