The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

[So the Heroes Fall]

Is that being on the losing ticket is double as worse when you're seen as an anchor. Can anyone really argue with a straight face that if the GOP ticket was reversed, it would've won? Edwards could've made such a case (You could also make a case against it, but either one is valid), but arguing Palin would've done better as the top candidate instead of McCain is downright laughable.

Now of course one could simply argue this wasn't the GOP's year and no one could've beaten Obama (most likely true.) However even then can Palin seriously argue she would've performed better than McCain? Is Palin seriously going to get 5 million Obama voters to switch to her and lose none of McCain's who voted for him in spite of her? Seriously.

[Purple State]

That is definitely a big problem for Palin's viability in the general election, but I wouldn't say it's her biggest shortcoming in the primaries. I foresee a large movement favoring her until the first debates, followed by the rapid deterioration of that base when people realize that she can't swing with the big boys.

[Lief]

Well, she'll obviously has to run as a much more experienced and competent candidate. If she is the same Sarah Palin she was in 2008 (clueless) then she'll fade in the primaries and drop out early. If she can pull it together, and show the Republican party that in the past four years she's been able to improve her speaking skills and her grasp of the issues, then she'll win the nomination.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Another thing is that usually, a failed VP nominee does not get the presidential nomination four years later. It was just like John Edwards being the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2005, but he too quickly faded.

[N.i.K.]

Prediction: Palin will not be the nominee in '12

[ChrisFromNJ]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Prediction: Palin will not be the nominee in '12

[Rob]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

That tends to be a positive for Republican primary voters. Anyone who couldn't just as easily bag groceries in the local Wal*Mart for a living is an "elitist" not worthy of being the most powerful person in the world.

[anvi]

If Palin runs in '12, she will be out of the race by, at the very latest, 10 pm eastern on Super Tuesday.  Obliterated.

[blagohair.com]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

George W. Bush.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I'll be pulling for her every step of the way.

[Nixon in '80]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

George W. Bush.

I'm sorry, but she makes W. look like John Locke.

[Padfoot]

Palin is going to die hard and fast in the GOP primary if she enters.  There are a myriad of more intelligent, qualified, and charismatic candidates that will make her look foolish if she even tries to run.  I would go so far as to say her candidacy would matter even less than Mike Gravel's stab at the Democratic nomination in 2008.

[Daniel Z]

Palin is going to die hard and fast in the GOP primary if she enters.  There are a myriad of more intelligent, qualified, and charismatic candidates that will make her look foolish if she even tries to run. 

I don't know many republicans who really are more charismatic than Palin.

I would go so far as to say her candidacy would matter even less than Mike Gravel's stab at the Democratic nomination in 2008.

This is hyperbole, I would expect a Palin run to be something like Edward's in 2008 in term of seriousness.

[Gravis Marketing]

Palin is going to die hard and fast in the GOP primary if she enters.  There are a myriad of more intelligent, qualified, and charismatic candidates that will make her look foolish if she even tries to run. 

I don't know many republicans who really are more charismatic than Palin.

Charisma is such an odd concept with her. She's intensely appealing to some Republicans, but few people talk about how badly she turns many people off with her persona--particularly women. And I'm not just talking about Democrats.

Huckabee is more charismatic than Palin, hands down.

[N.i.K.]

Palin is going to die hard and fast in the GOP primary if she enters.  There are a myriad of more intelligent, qualified, and charismatic candidates that will make her look foolish if she even tries to run.  I would go so far as to say her candidacy would matter even less than Mike Gravel's stab at the Democratic nomination in 2008.

I wouldn't say like Mike Gravel's, I would say more like Richardson's, even though he was way more qualified then any other candidate.

[migrendel]

I think Palin will prove hardier than her detractors think.  Whether my fellow liberals want to admit it or not, Palin has a force of personality that appeals to many.
Despite her lackluster grasp of policy (which mustn't be confused with her being unintelligent or, far more importantly, unshrewd), I watched her throughout the campaign with a growing sense of admiration.  When she was first presented as McCain's running mate, I said to myself, "Oh, splendid.  Her Alaskan Majesty, descending from her icy lair to bring us joy."  I sneered at her theocratic conservatism, and her using of her children as puppets to burnish her image.  However, even as she went off the rails (Worst of all was when Katie Couric, a bitch in my opinion, got her on the question of what she reads.  Couldn't she just have said the New York Times or something?), I realized that, in rough form, she provides a paradigm for future women politicians.
Women politicians have previously tried to prove their mettle by being androgynous.  Thatcher, of course, is archetypal, but one can also count Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, Angela Merkel, and Hillary.  However, these ladies have always appeared shrewish and castrating while trying to be tough.  Palin, I think, belongs to a new category of female politicians who have both grace and steel, along with Segolene Royal, Yulia Tymoshenko, and Nancy Pelosi (a consummate lady, even when cutting the legs out from under her rivals, and so unlike Hillary, who sounds shrill when on the attack. She's a royal oak next to Harry Reid, a cadaverous horse's ass whom the Democrats should dump with all deliberate speed.  His zigzagging on the Burris affair is typical.).
In any case, if Sarah Palin spends the next four years devoting herself to the study of economic and foreign policy, I don't see why she can't give Barack Obama a much better contest than McCain, one of the most incredibly bad candidates I've ever seen.  I realized not so long ago that Senator McCain is Mr. Magoo. (Surely you remember him: blind, misses the point to everything, and always walking off cliffs.)  All these wonderful traits I hear ascribed to him, like his valor in captivity or his bipartisanship, would be far more meaningful if there were even a glint of sincerity in a nature that is Magooish. Surely, those who extoll him ("Such a brave man. A real war hero!") can't conceal his thoroughly unlikeable disposition, like how his mouth curves into a rictus of senile fury whenever a difficult question is put to him.  Then again, I'm not the best judge of these things, since I could never understand how someone as cretinous and transparently phony as Ronald Reagan, in my opinion the worst president in living memory, could become so popular.  In any case, I will follow Palin's career with interest.

[Hatman]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

George W. Bush.

I'm sorry, but she makes W. look like John Locke.

Sexist comment, if I ever heard one. Palin and Bush are on the same level in terms of.. umm.. well you know... the appearance of lack of intelligence.

[Purple State]

.

Didn't want to fill the page with the whole thing, but letting you know what I am addressing.

Anyway, although Palin represents a new form of women in politics, she also displays (in an incredible fashion) the way to misuse that form and misrepresent what it really means. These women of "skirts and steel" predominantly focus on the steel part, using a form of brutal efficiency while still coming across as the innocent underdog. Nancy Pelosi is an excellent case in point. She seems to be a relatively simple person, a sweet granny and mother who loves children. However, her ability to break those who oppose her and maintain the upper hand has lifted her to political prominence. Ukraine's Premier, Tymoshenko is a similar example. This idea empowers women, allowing them to feel comfortable with their femininity while being unafraid to act as politicians must. Thus, they avoid falling into the "bitch" trap while maintaining their womanhood and succeeding.

However, Palin displays a crude focus on skirts, assuming that what made this form attractive was the naivete and folksy nature of these women. Instead of bringing passion and efficiency to the stage, Palin treats every situation like she is wholly innocent, under attack by the brutal misogynists or liberal media elitists. This insults women, who see the whole charade as just whining and crying like a baby while weakening the persona women have attempted to build through figures such as Pelosi and Hillary of the strong, self-reliant woman. Instead, Palin polarizes a number of demographics, from the moderate Republicans, to most Democrats, to many women who see her as a bad figurehead and men who view her as a nagging bitch. She will fail miserably come 2012 exactly because she has failed to properly implement the trend you mentioned.

[Wall St. Wiz]

I like her, but she blew it in 08.  Yes the media had the knives out for her, but she clearly was not ready for primetime.  I don't think she can recover nationally, but I think she could win a senate seat and would be a conservative leader in the senate.

[Erc]

Palin is going to die hard and fast in the GOP primary if she enters.  There are a myriad of more intelligent, qualified, and charismatic candidates that will make her look foolish if she even tries to run.  I would go so far as to say her candidacy would matter even less than Mike Gravel's stab at the Democratic nomination in 2008.

I wouldn't say like Mike Gravel's, I would say more like Richardson's, even though he was way more qualified then any other candidate.

I wouldn't count her out (as being considered a serious candidate---she has no realistic chance at the nomination itself).  She has loads of name recognition, is intensely popular amongst certain segments of the primary electorate, and the media will be giving her a lot of attention (she makes good press, if only because the press is waiting for her inevitable blunders).  The only other folks with a chance of running with similar name recognition are Romney and Huckabee, and her base doesn't overlap at all with Romney's, and only partially with Huck's.  In other words, at least until some other name starts getting attention (by October at the latest), she'll be considered a 'top tier candidate' by the media. 

Even if she does flounder consistently on the trail, the folks that are supporting her likely won't be turned off by that (if they haven't been already, it's not likely that they will in future).  Where her flubs might hurt is her pocketbook...she may have serious money troubles, especially if she spends through a lot of her money early a la McCain 2007.

Bottom line, she'll make it through January, certainly, and have an impact on the race larger than Fred Thompson did in '08, though she may not actually win anything outside of Alaska.

[Nixon in '80]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

George W. Bush.

I'm sorry, but she makes W. look like John Locke.

Sexist comment, if I ever heard one. Palin and Bush are on the same level in terms of.. umm.. well you know... the appearance of lack of intelligence.

I disagree. Bush is a poor public speaker in that he trips over his words and mangles sentences. Palin, on the other hand, oftentimes comes off as just completely ignorant and out of her element. Sure, my statement is an exaggeration, but I do believe W. is, or at least appears to be, more intelligent than Palin.

I also object to your characterization of my comment as sexist. Palin's gender has nothing to do with my perception of her as a half-wit, and you'll just have to take my word for that.

At least I didn't call her Tits McGee.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

The biggest problem I see Palin getting the nomination

... is that she is a ****ing dumb ass.

George W. Bush.

I'm sorry, but she makes W. look like John Locke.

Sexist comment, if I ever heard one. Palin and Bush are on the same level in terms of.. umm.. well you know... the appearance of lack of intelligence.

I disagree. Bush is a poor public speaker in that he trips over his words and mangles sentences. Palin, on the other hand, oftentimes comes off as just completely ignorant and out of her element. Sure, my statement is an exaggeration, but I do believe W. is, or at least appears to be, more intelligent than Palin.

I also object to your characterization of my comment as sexist. Palin's gender has nothing to do with my perception of her as a half-wit, and you'll just have to take my word for that.

At least I didn't call her Tits McGee.

[Sir Coffeebeans]

Palin is more charismatic than Huckabee, but charisma and brains do not go hand in hand, as Sarah Palin has shown. If Palin does get the nomination, and Obama doesn't do anything dumb in office, then Obama will be able to get >400 electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

Palin is more charismatic than Huckabee, but charisma and brains do not go hand in hand, as Sarah Palin has shown. If Palin does get the nomination, and Obama doesn't do anything dumb in office, then Obama will be able to get >400 electoral votes.

One good speech and then an exposure of her rhetorical ineptitude. When introduced at the Republican National Convention I thought that Obama/Biden was in trouble. Then she became a gaffe machine, exposing her shabby logic and her faulty grasp of ideas. Sure, she has a BA degree -- but what had she studied in college? Here is someone who could have taken a few  courses in philosophy (which doesn't so much teach one what to think as how to think), political science, and history. Don't tell me that taking such courses is too tough on a busy schedule; one can take those courses at a community college. 

I saw the Peter Principle -- that in a hierarchy a person rises to a level of incompetence -- at work. Here was someone who claimed to have foreign policy experience because Alaska has a border with Russia. Big deal! I have spent all but two years of my life in Michigan, Texas, and California... and I claim no expertise on either Canadian or Mexican politics. I can assure you that Russian politics are far more exotic. She had probably never been in Russia, had never been visited by a Russian delegation, and had probably never been in a Russian Orthodox Church. She probably had no Russian phrasebook in her possession.  I saw someone who might be an effective governor of a State with comparatively simple politics, but someone completely out of her league as Vice-President of the United States.

Vice-President? She would be out of her league in dealing with foreign leaders. So what about the Presidency?

And that's before I even discuss her family.