The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Lahbas]

What I am waiting for is the President's policy of Afghanistan. His ambiguity certainly is not helping the view of him as a leader, and there is really no indicator on where he will turn. In my mind, he might follow the opinion polls on the issue, which might prove to be more negative in the end.

[Booker 2013!]

New numbers from Arkansas

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ar_approval_ratings_tbq_101215.php

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas give us our first November poll, as shown with the letter K (11th letter in the alphabet):



Which gives no support to the idea that Obama has making headway in the most obvious Clinton-but-not-Obama state.

Arkansas

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 40 / 56
Mike Beebe: 71 / 15
Blanche Lincoln: 42 / 46

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 59
Gov. Beebe: 79 / 13
Blanche Lincoln: 45 / 45

If the 2010 election was held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote to re-elect Blanche Lincoln as your United States Senator no matter who ran against her?
25% Yes, 61% No

Arkansas now looks like a likely pickup -- by Republicans in the US Senate. 

[Senator Tmthforu94]

According to RCP averages, Barack Obama's approval rating is at it's lowest point today ever...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[Eraserhead]

NJ Exit Poll: 57%

VA Exit Poll: 51%

NYC Exit Poll: 77%

[Tender Branson]

NJ Exit Poll: 57%

VA Exit Poll: 51%

NYC Exit Poll: 77%

VA is 48% Approve, 51% Disapprove

[Eraserhead]

NJ Exit Poll: 57%

VA Exit Poll: 51%

NYC Exit Poll: 77%

VA is 48% Approve, 51% Disapprove

Okay, it was 51% the last time I heard about it.

[Senator RowanBrandon]

NJ Exit Poll: 57%

VA Exit Poll: 51%

NYC Exit Poll: 77%

VA is 48% Approve, 51% Disapprove

Okay, it was 51% the last time I heard about it.

Yeah, they have to reweigh them, which is why taking the leak ones at face value is just stupid most of the time.

[pbrower2a]

NJ Exit Poll: 57%

VA Exit Poll: 51%

NYC Exit Poll: 77%

VA is 48% Approve, 51% Disapprove

Okay, it was 51% the last time I heard about it.

Yeah, they have to reweigh them, which is why taking the leak ones at face value is just stupid most of the time.

But look at what data one can derive for them. The NYC poll is worthless for explaining how New York State would vote in 2012 because NYC does not vote separately from the state.

New Jersey and Virginia voters said that they thought Obama OK but in one case failed to re-elect a governor with huge political weaknesses (being associated with a powerful investment-banking firm that is now seen more as a part of the problem than a part of the solution) and in another rejected a weak campaigner for the Governorship.

Such happens. I could draw some conclusions about public opinion from exit polls in New Jersey and Virginia, and those would both strengthen the appearance of Obama support. But those exit polls are irregular samples and not polls of likely voters in the 2012 election, as the people who vote in odd-year elections are a smaller selection of voters.   

[Tender Branson]

Maryland (Clarus Research Group):

60% Approve
33% Disapprove

Clarus conducted this statewide survey among 637 voters in Maryland, based on a representative sample. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percent. Interviews were conducted via telephone by live interviewers between October 30 and November 2, 2009. (It should be noted that all interviews were completed before the Nov. 3 elections.) These survey questions were not asked on behalf of, or paid for by, any client, political candidate or party organization. This study was conducted for the internal use of Clarus.

http://www.clarusrg.com/sites/default/files/Clarus_Maryland%20Voter%20Survey_Nov%204%2009.pdf

[Swing Voter]

Any national numbers?

[pbrower2a]

Maryland checks in:



Still strong support there. Yawn!

[DariusNJ]

Obama is still looking strong in the very blue states, it's the swing states in which it looks like his approval is below his Election Day totals.

[pbrower2a]

Another way to look at it is that the GOP nominee of 2012 looks to have lots of ways to lose and  few in which to win. The map resembles the low point of Obama support between the Democratic convention and the election. Some of the states that Obama was absolutely crushed in now look far too close for GOP comfort (KY, LA, TN). Huckabee would probably win those, but I can't be certain that Romney would win them.

Fresh polls in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and West Virginia would all be interesting. 

[TrueRepublicIran]

Still a hack, I see.