The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

You really think Martinez has a better than 7% chance of being chosen?

Anyway, the latest update is:

GOP nomination

Romney 93.1
Santorum 1.4
Paul 1.3
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.4
Palin 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Cantor 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Gingrich 0.2
Rubio 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Winning party

Dems 61.0
GOP 38.3
other 0.8

Four years ago at this time:

Democratic nomination
Obama 80.0
Clinton 17.3
Gore 4.8
Edwards 0.2

Republican nomination
McCain 94.1
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.4
Rice 0.5
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Winning party
Democratic 59.3
Republican 38.0
Field 0.7

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

You really think Martinez has a better than 7% chance of being chosen?

Yes but also I'm not that familiar with her so I'm just assuming she carries herself better than Palin.  Romney will pick his running mate probably just over 2 months before Election Day.  Who knows how the next 4+ months go but it seems to me there's a better than even chance that Romney will, like McCain 2008, realize he's likely headed for a loss without a game change, and similarly roll the dice with a nakedly political pick.  And I think her chances, like McDonnell's, are dragged down by unrealistically high prices for alternatives.  No way will Romney pick Ryan.  Christie also seems very inflated, no pun intended.  Santorum, only if you consider a 3.5 chance (or slightly more) chance of a brokered convention.  0% Romney runs with him otherwise.

[Beet]

CFTC bans election-based derivatives contracts

Nadex, a Chicago-based electronic exchange, had sought to offer contracts based on results for the elections for the US presidency, the Senate and House of Representatives. The CFTC said that the derivatives “involved gaming and are contrary to public interest”, and asked that Nadex withdraw the self-certification.
...
There has never been a regulated market for investors to purchase futures contracts on political events. Intrade, a market dedicated to unconventional predictions, such as whether France will lose its triple A rating before a certain time, or which movies will have the biggest box office return, currently offers political futures wagers, but is not federally regulated.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Maryland/Wisconsin update: Santorum is now rated as less likely to win the GOP nomination than both Biden and Clinton are to win the Democratic nomination.

GOP nomination

Romney 93.5
Paul 1.2
Santorum 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Christie 0.4
Gingrich 0.4

Maryland

Romney 99.8
Santorum 0.2

Wisconsin

Romney 93.5
Santorum 7.4

Dem. nomination

Obama 97.0
Biden 1.5
Clinton 1.0

[TheGlobalizer]

GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

You really think Martinez has a better than 7% chance of being chosen?

Yes but also I'm not that familiar with her so I'm just assuming she carries herself better than Palin.  Romney will pick his running mate probably just over 2 months before Election Day.  Who knows how the next 4+ months go but it seems to me there's a better than even chance that Romney will, like McCain 2008, realize he's likely headed for a loss without a game change, and similarly roll the dice with a nakedly political pick.  And I think her chances, like McDonnell's, are dragged down by unrealistically high prices for alternatives.  No way will Romney pick Ryan.  Christie also seems very inflated, no pun intended.  Santorum, only if you consider a 3.5 chance (or slightly more) chance of a brokered convention.  0% Romney runs with him otherwise.

Martinez would carry herself better than Palin, but I don't think she wants in.  I can see her doing a second term as governor, wrapping up in 2018 and running in 2020 for the prez spot.  I think 7% is too high but token woman / token Hispanic keeps her above the de minimis level.

FWIW, I haven't heard her speak but she's apparently a very impressive speaker.

Rubio, Christie, and McDonnell are too high.  Daniels and Jindal are probably too low.  DeMint and Fortuno should be in the discussion.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-WI/MD update: Romney now above 95 to win the GOP nomination, almost as high as Obama is to win the Democratic nomination.


GOP nomination

Romney 95.7
Paul 0.8
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Huckabee 0.3
Palin 0.3
Christie 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Gingrich 0.2
Rubio 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Democratic nomination

Obama 97.5
Biden 1.1
Clinton 1.0

Winning individual

Obama 60.6
Romney 37.0
Clinton 0.9
Biden 0.3
Paul 0.3
Santorum 0.2

Pennsylvania

Romney 81.2
Santorum 18.5