US with French parties

[Luóbótè Bèiĕrdé]

Yeah; aside from WV, where is the left strong that the Democrats aren't?

[Northeast Representative Antonio V]

Yeah; aside from WV, where is the left strong that the Democrats aren't?

In the Outer South probably (KY, TN, AR, MO).

[big bad fab]

Just wait for Midwest and South West, we may have some surprises...
And remember this is 2007, not the end of 2009, with this dwindling UMP...

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Tennessee (warning: I don't know sh**t about TN)

Blue Ridge and Eastern Tennessee

There is an old Republican tradition dating back to a long time in these parts. I would assume it would carry over to the UMP with limited bleeding to the MPF and the FN. The only real Socialist areas would be the limited black pockets and university pockets in Knoxville and Chattanooga.

Central Tennessee and Nashville

To begin with, the inner areas of Nashville are Socialist but of the category that voted Green in June 2009. The suburbs, of course, are UMP.

The areas of central TN in the Cumberland Plateau area would have a continued old Socialist presence and base of support, though the MPF (in rural areas) and FN (in blue-collar areas) would have gained strength in the past. At the local level, I could definitely see a lot of Socialist councillors in the General Council from here. Other old Socialist areas in the Nashville Basin would have held slightly better, but the Socialists would have lost with the arrival of suburbanites.

Western Tennessee

The Mississippi River Plain and in rural western TN would still be a rather Socialist area, I suppose, though it would like Frêche-like people and other 'old style Socialists' (Mitterrand would have done well) over people of the DSK genre.

The suburbs of Memphis would be a lean UMP area, but since a lot of the people are in there are also white-flight from Memphis, I suppose you could see a large FN vote, especially for a suburban area. Memphis itself is Socalist and becoming more Socialist ever so slowly. The Greens would have done well in 2009, but not as well as in Memphis. I'm assuming that blacks stayed Socialist even in 2009.

Overall, I think Sarko might have narrowly won here in 2007 (quite a major win for him) due to his stupid populist rhetoric which would have played well here.

Arkansas

Arkansas would remain a Socialist-leaning state, with continued old Socialist support in poor rural Arkansas (like old Democratic support there). Predictably, the black areas on the Mississippi River would also be solidly Socialist.

Little Rock itself would be Socialist, and the suburbia strongly UMP making a district like AR-2 a real swing district.

The Ozarks would continue to have a strong UMP tradition with some MPF and FN inroads in recent years.

I could see Arkansas being narrowly won by Royal in 2008 though Sarko would have played very well.

[Northeast Representative Antonio V]

Nice, it's back !

[big bad fab]

Nice, it's back !

YES !

And with a fine Arkansas, a state Sarkozy may have hoped to win in 2007, but lost closely and where he backfires badly now...
I would see it as a rural version of the industrial Moselle.

And TN, a very narrow Sarkozy win in 2007...

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Well, as we say in Quebec, j'ai mon voyage of the South, so let's move on for a bit now.

Kentucky

Cumberland Plateau and Eastern Kentucky

The working-class and poor counties of Appalachia (coal country) would be much like West Virginia and a strongly Socialist area with a strong PS machine (like in the Pas-de-Calais). So, that would kind of limit any Sarkozy-populist effect. However, you might see a Henin-Beaumont type thing these days in these parts, and in 2009, I think you could see the FN ahead of the UMP in a lot of places.

South Central Kentucky

This is an old unionist area dating to the Civil War, but a rather poor and working-class populist area. The UMP would be strong here, and I think Sarkozy would have been a perfect candidate in 2007 'round these parts, but bling-bling wouldn't play well anymore so you could see a protest vote for DLR, the FN or MPF (though SC Kentucky isn't a hardcore conservanutty area). I tend to privilege DLR for these parts.

Northern Kentucky

An affluent white-collar area outside of Cincinnati, so predictably strong UMP. The rural areas would be less straight forward, with some old PS support in a few areas (places like Ashland).

Bluegrass Country

A swing area between UMP and PS. The rural areas south of Lexington tend to the right, those north of Lexington tend to the Socialists. Lexington might have been UMP in a distant past, but the city proper would be Socialist (and Green in June 2009); as would Frankfort. The suburbs would be right-wing.

Louisville

Louisville itself would be a PS town, with strong PS support in black areas of the city and working-class white areas. The UMP would dominate its suburbs, including the very affluent Oldham County.

Western Kentucky

This is an old Dixiecrat area, so one would assume the Socialists would be dominant on paper but the region would be a swing region in reality. The PS would be strong in the old coal mining areas and probably slightly weaker in tobacco country. There would be 'yellow dog Socialist' support in the Purchase.

I think the PS would carry Kentucky in 2007, by a narrow margin again, thanks to the machine support in old coal mining areas and limited urban support for Sarkozy in Lexington, Louisville and Frankfort (places which aren't extremely hard to win for a good right-wing candidate, for the most part). Map probably not too dissimilar to the 2004 Senate map or soemthing.



OHIO next! Fabien will appreciate

[big bad fab]

Oh, Kentucky is already a very fine reading. Really.

I'm not so sure the margin would have been narrow for the PS, even in 2007.
And well, wouldn't influence area of Cincinnati be Socialist also, but a DSK-type ?

(yeah, maybe it's because I unconsciously would have wished that all the wings of the PS be represented in only one state )

And I go back to TN: wouldn't it be better to put it in lighter blue on the map ?
(in fact, it's disturbing because TN is UMP only because there is 2 rounds, as, in the first round, the UMP wouldn't have been very high; but that's the game)

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

I'm not so sure the margin would have been narrow for the PS, even in 2007.
And well, wouldn't influence area of Cincinnati be Socialist also, but a DSK-type ?

It seems way too affluent and white-collar suburban conservative for that, frankly. Even a 'urban-suburban' Democrat like Obama did badly there (though less badly than in rural KY).

And I go back to TN: wouldn't it be better to put it in lighter blue on the map ?

At first, I just color the map according to the runoff result, because it's easier for me to think in those terms at first, but after all is done, I'll post maps of 2007 first round, 2002 first round, 1995, 1988, 1981, 1974, 1969 and 1965...

(in fact, it's disturbing because TN is UMP only because there is 2 rounds, as, in the first round, the UMP wouldn't have been very high; but that's the game)

Guessed correctly. My first round map had Tennessee going PS in the first round, due to the division on the right: MPF at 8-9%, FN at 13% or so...

[Mr. Allan Abraham]

Louisville

Louisville itself would be a PS town, with strong PS support in black areas of the city and working-class white areas. The UMP would dominate its suburbs, including the very affluent Oldham County.

Louisville would probably have been Communist until relatively recently.