NY-23 Special Election: November 3, 2009

[Nym90]

Don, you gotta admit Owens was actually to the right of Scozzafava on several issues.

Not to say that promoting a big tent party maybe matters more than who you agree with the most in just one House race, but still.

[Sam Spade]

Don, you gotta admit Owens was actually to the right of Scozzafava on several issues.

Not to say that promoting a big tent party maybe matters more than who you agree with the most in just one House race, but still.

Democrats have actually been quite successful in this area of the world in recent years running candidates to the right of the GOP, now that you mention it.  The areas were more Republican than the district as a whole, however.

[Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I guess FOX is the only one to call it so far.  I didn't think Hoffman had a chance at this point - is there a reason the other networks are hesitating?

[cinyc]

Why is then Owens getting more votesin Hamilton than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ?

He didn't.  Obama received 1.64 points less of the vote than Owens, but turnout was much higher.  Obama received 1,184 votes to Owens' 888 (pending absentees, if not already counted).

Hamilton is a very small county.  1.64 points is about 35 voters.  Who knows?  Perhaps Owens has a vacation home there.

Hamilton doesn't have a website.  I don't know if they've already counted absentees - which also could account for Dede's better showing there. But I really think it may be TV-market driven.

[Lunar]

What will be funny is if/when some GOP types spin this loss arguing that the GOP candidate + Hoffman combined actually got the majority of the vote.

not that the Democrats have any spin possible for Virginia, with New Jersey we'll claim that all incumbents are unpopular right now and point to some mayoral races to justify it

[ag]

Why is then Owens getting more votesin Hamilton than any Dem presidential candidate since LBJ?

He didn't.  Obama received 1.64 points less of the vote than Owens, but turnout was much higher.  Obama received 1,184 votes to Owens' 888 (pending absentees, if not already counted).

Hamilton is a very small county.  1.64 points is about 35 voters.  Who knows?  Perhaps Owens has a vacation home there.

Yep, actually that's true - slip of tongue, wanted to correct that almost as soon as I wrote, but right at that moment the forum was slow loading on my machine, so I didn't bother. Thanks for correcting, though.

Still, the point is: Owens is doing extremely well by Hamilton county standards.

[Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What will be funny is if/when some GOP types spin this loss arguing that the GOP candidate + Hoffman combined actually got the majority of the vote.

not that the Democrats have any spin possible for Virginia, with New Jersey we'll claim that all incumbents are unpopular right now and point to some mayoral races to justify it

I don't think it's necessarily untrue.  I think if the GOP would've done this race right, and made sure they got fully behind a candidate (whether it was Hoffman or Scozzafava), I think we would've won.  I see this as a major GOP failure in organization and leadership.

[Sarnstrom]

MSNBC: Hoffman Concedes!

[cinyc]

I guess FOX is the only one to call it so far.  I didn't think Hoffman had a chance at this point - is there a reason the other networks are hesitating?

It should be pretty clear.  Hoffman's not making up a 4,500-vote gap when Democrat-leaning St. Lawrence County is what's mainly out.

[Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

CNN called it, and Hoffman conceded.

[Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I guess FOX is the only one to call it so far.  I didn't think Hoffman had a chance at this point - is there a reason the other networks are hesitating?

It should be pretty clear.  Hoffman's not making up a 4,500-vote gap when Democrat-leaning St. Lawrence County is what's mainly out.

Oh - I wholeheartedly agree.  I'm not sure why CNN just now called it though - we haven't had precincts come in for a while, and nobody else has - maybe they just got tired of waiting?  But that seemed weird - there was no reason for calling it just now that wasn't there 20 minutes ago.

[ag]

Well, that's the lesson: had out-of-state Republicans not made this race an issue, the night would have been completely bleak for the Dems.  This way, it became a case study in what happens when people from Alaska start making favorites in their party's internal affairs in New York. NY Republicans should urgently disassociate from the national party, unless they want their state to go the New England direction. Locally they are alive and kicking - but the national Republican albatross is screwing them royally in national races.

[Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, that's the lesson: had out-of-state Republicans not made this race an issue, the night would have been completely bleak for the Dems.  This way, it became a case study in what happens when people from Alaska start making favorites in their party's internal affairs in New York. NY Republicans should urgently disassociate from the national party, unless they want their state to go the New England direction. Locally they are alive and kicking - but the national Republican albatross is screwing them royally in national races.

But that's politics, and NY Repubs should've seen it coming, and adjusted they're strategy.  I'm not saying they necessarily should've gone with Hoffman to begin with, but it's not like I completely blame this on Palin (although I am pissed that she endorsed Hoffman).

[Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

MSNBC called it, but Politico stopped updating.

[Iosif]

33.28% in:
Owens 49.87%   
Hoffman 45.08%
Scozzafava 5.05%   

Looks like to me Owens should be favored right now.  But we need to see full counties before I can make this a 100% sure observation.

Wow. What an oracle. Top notch stuff, Sam. We're really lucky to have your expert insights.

Your mama must be so proud she raised a political colossus.