Manchester, N.H. - A new poll by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College shows significant movement in the presidential race in swing state New Hampshire, with Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain by 12 percentage points.

When asked whom they plan to vote for in the Nov. 4 general election, 49% of respondents said Obama and 37% answered McCain. Another 11% said they are undecided, but among those who have selected a candidate, 88% say they will not change their mind.

"The results are significant and show upward movement for Obama, but it is still early in the world of elective politics,” said Michael Dupre, NHIOP senior fellow, who designed the poll. “The trends in this poll give us helpful data, but this race remains volatile and numbers leading up to Election Day will reflect that."

Obama is ahead among likely voters who identify themselves as Democrats, independents, moderates and liberals. He is ahead among women, as well as voters in every age group and salary range listed in the survey. Men are almost evenly split between the two candidates, while conservatives, Republicans and Evangelical Christians are strongly in the McCain camp, the poll indicates.

The survey, conducted by Abt SRBI in New York, has a margin of error of +/_3.5% and included 832 respondents. The poll was conducted between Sept. 27 and Sept. 30. Poll results on the New Hampshire senatorial and congressional races will be released starting tomorrow.

“All but 11% of the New Hampshire electorate feel they have made a final decision, compared with only half of the voters who said something similar before the New Hampshire Primary,” said Dupre. “Obama is profoundly ahead among undeclared voters, who make up over 40% of the electorate in New Hampshire and who favored McCain in the New Hampshire Primary.”

Among voters who cast their ballots for Sen. Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire Primary, 80% say they will vote for Obama in November.

“The poll indicates that Obama bridged the gap with Clinton supporters, after losing to her in the New Hampshire Primary,” Jennifer Donahue, political director of the New Hamsphire Institute of Politics, said. “Obama now has 4 out of 5 Democrats behind him."

As for vice presidential candidates, Democrat Sen. Joe Biden and Republican Gov. Sarah Palin have about equal influence on voters from their respective parties, the poll indicates. In all, 52% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans say the vice presidential pick influenced their decision a lot or some.

Among those who say they will vote for Obama, however, 41% say McCain’s choice of Palin influenced their decision a lot or some. Only 22% of McCain voters say Biden influenced their decision a lot or some.

Change in Washington is extremely important to 44% of likely voters, the poll shows. Of those voters, Obama drew 65% and McCain 22%. Ten percent of voters were undecided and 3% said they would vote for another candidate.

Half of all likely voters surveyed point to the economy and jobs as the issues most important to them. Of those, 54% favored Obama and 34% McCain. Ten percent said they were undecided. For 9% of likely voters, the crisis in banking and on Wall Street was the most important issue. Of those, 44% said they would vote for Obama, 40% favored McCain and 16% were undecided.

Obama’s lead in this survey represents a significant from recent polls in other states, which show the two senators apart by less than 10 percentage points.

"The upward momentum shift for Obama reflects what is happening in other battleground states like Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Missouri,” said Donahue. “The margin in New Hampshire is larger and it is also more significant, because McCain won the New Hampshire Primary in 2008 and 2000, and therefore could be expected to have a stronger inherent base in New Hampshire than in many other battleground states."

Jennifer Donahue, political director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, is available for comment on the poll at (603) 345-6139.