New Mexico Looks Less-and-Less Like a Toss-Up, 5 Weeks Till Votes are Counted: In an election for President of the United States in New Mexico today, 10/01/08, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 52% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Compared to an identical poll released two weeks ago, both candidates' numbers are unchanged.
While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along gender lines: Among men, Obama had led by 10, now leads by 2. Among women, Obama had led by 6, now leads by 14 -- an 8-point swing toward McCain among men and a reciprocal 8-point swing in Obama's favor among women.

Obama cannot win the state without the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans. McCain leads by 9 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 37 points among Hispanics and by 33 points among Natives. If Hispanic turnout is overstated in this model, so is Obama's lead. If Hispanic turnout is understated in this model, so is Obama's lead.

13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 17% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents favor Obama by 16 points. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 12 points. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 11. Among those who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 10.