Question:
First off, who will you most likely vote for in the upcoming presidential election? I'm going to read a list of candidates, and please tell me who you are most likely to vote for. (Very or somewhat likely?)
Democratic party candidate Barack Obama
Republican party candidate John McCain
Constitution party candidate Chuck Baldwin
Libertarian party candidate Bob Barr
Pacific Green party candidate Cynthia McKinney
or Peace party candidate Ralph Nader
VOTED FIRST REGISTERED TO LIKELY
GENDER PARTY COUNTY AGE VOTING HISTORY TIME VOTE VOTE PRES
————————— —————————————— ———————————————————————— ———————————————————————— ———————————————————————— —————————————— —————————————— ————————
— HAVE JOHN
FE WILL C/E SO CO 18- 25- 35- 45- BFOR '06- NOT BFOR AFTR BRCK MC
Total MALE MALE DEM REP OTHR PDX VLY OR OR AST 24 34 44 64 65+ 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 0/4 2006 '08 VOTD 2006 2006 2006 OBMA CAIN
————— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ————
Total Participants 499 275 224 212 174 113 201 138 48 59 32 31 54 82 221 111 67 67 119 202 44 415 40 44 415 31 53 241 171
55% 45% 42% 35% 23% 40% 28% 10% 12% 6% 6% 11% 16% 44% 22% 13% 13% 24% 40% 9% 83% 8% 9% 83% 6% 11% 48% 34%
Barack Obama 48% 52% 43% 77% 10% 53% 52% 49% 33% 46% 47% 65% 56% 40% 52% 40% 51% 40% 45% 52% 48% 47% 60% 50% 47% 52% 55% 100% -
Obama - Very 41 44 38 66 8 45 45 44 25 41 34 52 50 37 43 34 40 37 38 45 41 39 57 43 40 45 47 85 -
Obama - Somewhat 7 8 6 11 2 8 7 5 8 5 13 13 6 4 9 5 10 3 7 8 7 8 3 7 7 6 8 15 -
John McCain 34% 31% 38% 9% 75% 19% 29% 39% 44% 32% 31% 23% 31% 34% 31% 46% 28% 45% 39% 34% 18% 37% 22% 18% 37% 29% 19% - 100%
McCain - Very 31 28 35 8 69 17 25 37 40 32 28 16 24 32 29 44 22 42 35 33 11 35 17 11 34 23 13 - 91
McCain - Somewhat 3 3 4 1 6 3 4 2 4 - 3 6 7 2 2 2 6 3 3 1 7 2 5 7 2 6 6 - 9
Miscellaneous 4% 2% 6% 2% 3% 8% 4% 3% 6% 5% - 3% - 9% 4% 2% 6% 6% 3% 2% 7% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% - -
Barr - Very 1 0 1 - 1 1 0 1 - 2 - - - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0 2 0 - 2 1 - - - -
Nader - Very 0 - 1 - - 2 1 - - - - - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 - 0 - - 0 - - - -
Nader - Somewhat 0 - 0 - - 1 0 - - - - 3 - - - - 1 - - - - - 3 - - 3 - - -
Miscellaneous 3 1 4 2 2 4 2 2 6 3 - - - 4 4 1 3 4 3 1 5 3 3 2 3 - 4 - -
Undecided / Refused 14% 15% 12% 11% 13% 19% 14% 9% 17% 17% 22% 10% 13% 17% 14% 13% 15% 9% 14% 11% 27% 12% 13% 27% 12% 16% 23% - -
Undecided/Don't know 12 13 10 9 11 18 11 8 17 14 19 10 13 13 13 9 12 9 13 9 23 11 10 23 11 16 17 - -
Refused 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 - 3 3 - - 4 1 4 3 - 1 2 5 1 3 5 1 - 6 - -
Chi Square 12.67 240.83 32.38 68.39 47.62 38.49 35.58 412.00
.178 .001 .641 .001 .093 .003 .008 .001

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
Riley Research Associates conducted an omnibus survey among registered Oregon voters (RV) regarding their opinions on a variety of current issues. The scientific telephone poll was conducted among 499 randomly selected voters throughout Oregon. A sample of 499 provides accuracy to within +/-4.39 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Data collection took place between October 10th and 20th 2008.
Because this poll took place during a presidential election year and in anticipation of a high turnout, all registered voters were considered eligible. Likely voters are defined in the cross tabulations based on their date of registration (before 2006, 2006, and since 2006). New voters are also identified in terms of their first recorded vote and number of times they have voted in the past. Current results are also compared to similar questions asked in previous scientific surveys.
Sample demographics were compared against the demographics of registered voters to ensure results are consistent with current Oregon voter registration profiles. Regional breakouts were defined for cross tabulations, and classified into the following regions:
􀂃 Portland Metro: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington
􀂃 Willamette Valley: Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, Polk, Yamhill
􀂃 Southern: Douglas, Jackson, Josephine
􀂃 Central / Eastern: Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Hood River, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wasco, Wallowa, Wheeler
􀂃 Coast: Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, Tillamook