Raleigh, N.C. – Despite recent speculation that Arizona could be competitive this fall,
John McCain has a solid lead over Barack Obama in the state, the newest survey from
Public Policy Polling finds.
McCain leads Obama 52-40. He earns a decent amount of crossover support, trailing just
76-16 among Democratic voters while having folks in his party almost completely nailed
down with an 87-8 advantage.
McCain is also doing considerably better with Hispanic voters in his home state than he
is nationally, trailing 48-40 with that group in Arizona while he has a deficit well over 20
points nationally.
“There’s no shortage of typically Republican states for Barack Obama to compete in this
fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Places like Indiana,
Virginia, Colorado, North Dakota, and Montana all appear to be unusually competitive
this year. Obama might be better suited to trying to pull off win in those places because
Arizona looks like a long shot.”
The survey found that both McCain and Governor Janet Napolitano are quite popular.
Napolitano’s approval rating is 54% while McCain’s is 53%. In surveys over the last few
months across the country McCain and Napolitano are the only two politicians PPP has
found with approval over 50% in this time when voters are unhappy with their elected
officials pretty much across the board.
A hypothetical 2010 Senate match up between the pair shows McCain with a 50-43 lead
over Napolitano.
PPP surveyed 1,000 likely voters on July 30th and 31st. The survey’s margin of error is
+/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at
(888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.