Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has opened up an 11 point lead on Hillary Clinton in
Wisconsin, according to a new survey of the state’s likely primary voters by Public
Policy Polling.
Obama’s 50-39 lead is particularly aided by a 55-34 advantage among voters most
concerned about the Iraq war.
“Nationally the number of people listing the war as their top issue is dwindling,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s still the top issue for
Democrats in Wisconsin, and Barack Obama is really benefiting from it.”
Although Obama leads Clinton only 46-44 among poll respondents who identified
themselves as Democrats, he has an overwhelming 63-25 lead with Independents.
Obama leads with both male and female voters and with both white and black voters in
the state.
“Our poll shows that if there was standard turnout for the primary, Obama would lead
Clinton 46-42,” said Debnam. “But since we believe record numbers of young voters and
African Americans will turn out to support him, the weighted result gives Obama a
greater 50-39 advantage.”
On the Republican side John McCain has a 53-32 advantage over Mike Huckabee, with
Ron Paul at 7% and 9% remaining undecided.
“Mike Huckabee did well on Super Tuesday with a lot of southern states voting, but he’s
going to have a tough time in states like Wisconsin,” Debnam said. “McCain has strong
leads with pretty much every key Republican demographic in the state.”
PPP surveyed 642 likely Democratic primary voters and 700 likely Republican primary
voters on February 11th. The survey’s margins of errors are +/- 3.9% and +/- 3.7%
respectively. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.