Election 2010 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

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Source: Research 2000 (url)

Candidate		Political Party	Poll	Graph	Poll Details
	Mark S. Kirk	Republican	41%		Poll Date: 2010-05-05
	Alexi Giannoulias^	Democratic	38%		Number Polled: 600
	Other	-	0%		Margin of Error: 4%
	Undecided	-	21%		Voter Type: Likely

^ = Incumbent Party (Current Senator Retiring)

Kos:Kirk leads

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) on 2010-05-07 @ 13:53:38

Question: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Alexi Giannoulias, the Democrat, or Mark Kirk, the Republican?

ALEXI GIANNOULIAS MARK KIRK UNDECIDED
ALL 38 41 21
MEN 35 45 20
WOMEN 41 37 22
DEMOCRATS 65 14 21
REPUBLICANS 7 81 12
INDEPENDENTS 31 39 30
WHITE 32 50 18
BLACK 66 4 30
HISPANIC 52 19 29
18-29 44 36 20
30-44 41 38 21
45-59 36 43 21
60+ 35 45 20
CHICAGO/COOK 52 24 24
COLLAR 19 62 19
CENTRAL 36 47 17
SOUTHERN 33 49 18

About this Poll
The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from May 3 through May 5, 2010. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

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Poll Technical Comments

By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) - 2010-05-07 @ 19:01:30

The likely VAP electorate breakdown is going to be
45% DEM
30%REP
25% IND.
Giannoulias-D gets 85% DEM,45% of IND. and 5% REP. The race is statistical tie. 51-49 percent race.
Among Race-
80% White
10% Black
10% Hispanic
Giannoulias-D will recieve 90% of the Black vote. 80% of the Hispanic vote. Giannoulias-D starts out with 17% of the popular vote. Giannoulias-D just needs 40% of the White vote- to win.
Finally- Region.
35% of the electorate is from Cook County. Giannoulias- will get at least 70% of the popular vote in Cook County. Giannoulias-D starts out with 25% of the popular vote.
Giannoulias- gets 40% of the popular vote in the Collar,Central and Southern IL.
The 2010 IL US Senate Race is pure tossup. The minority voter turnout is going to key. Giannoulias needs to energize the Black and Hispanic vote.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2010-05-08 @ 07:34:47

I agree just because it is a Kos leaning poll doesn't mean that it is Democratic, they had Corzine losing. We will see if this leads last.

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