Date of Prediction: 2020-09-18 Version:1
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 22)
Analysis
Presidential cycle gubernatorial races are leaning more and more Republican just based on the distribution of states. This is doubly true now that West Virginia and Missouri have fallen out of the competitive column. Galloway might be able to pull off Missouri with an October surprise scandal(considering the history of Republican fuck-ups in the state, it's possible.) Cooney doesn't have the name recognition to survive a polarized electorate in Montana and Sununu has pissed off a fair bit of New Hampshire liberals by being much more MAGA than put on in 2016. Still think he pulls it out, especially if Trump pulls out a win in New Hampshire.<br /><br /><br /> 11/13/2020 Notes: Not much to say. All called in line with what I thought, MT and MO weren't even close but I maintain the *possibility* was there given a late race surprise. I'll take my beating for the New Hampshire prediction. I thought it might swing against Sununu to make it close since Biden was polling so well and I thought split ticket voting might be on the downswing. New Hampshire continues to surprise. Bluer than I thought on Pres level and redder on Gov level. Member Comments User's Predictions
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