Ignore the colors on the prediction map, I'm just going for who will win, not by what percentage.

The economy has hit MI and OH hard enough that they're fairly safe for Obama. A lot of the battlegrounds still have some question marks. My home of VA, for example; will the conservative rural and military votes outweigh the liberal inner-cities, college towns, and northern VA? Judging from the yard signs I've seen in some neighborhoods, McCain has a fight on his hands.

I don't think it's a question any longer of will Obama win, but rather by how much. And will McCain come to regret his selection of Palin, which has cost him crucial support among moderates and independents such as myself?

Probably can't be much closer than this, without an EV tie.

This is how I see it at the moment and will most likely change over the next few months. I see quite a few battleground states, some that may be surprising.

I also wonder if there will be an opposite of coattail effect with Obama. Not that the guy running for the Presidency will pull along the Congressional candidates with him, but rather that strong Congressional candidates may help Obama's margins.

VA is one case of this. McCain should win but by a close margin, as has been the case with recent statewide elections. Mark Warner, meanwhile, should win the Senate seat by a larger margin (I'd guess 55-45 right now). Support for him could translate into more votes than typical for Obama, who won the primary by a healthy margin.

I also think GA could be closer than expected and could be an opportunity for Obama. In 2002 Saxby Chambliss ran a nasty campaign against Max Cleland, attacking the patriotism of a triple amputee Vietnam vet. Will the Democrats be out for some payback? Could a strong Senate candidate help Obama in a close race?

McCain will have opportunities of his own. How well will PA voters remember Obama's "cling to religion and guns" comment?

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