Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:16
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 112)
Analysis
My goal in creating this map was simply to remove any states from the "toss up" category. I may make one last alteration tomorrow, although, to be honest, I am not sure I will. This may be my final position. The only two states that I am on the fence on are New Hampshire and Virginia. I am sure that there will be those who think that I am greatly underestimating Obama's win. If I am wrong, I am wrong and will have no problem admitting it. It is my opinion though that while Obama will win the popular vote by 5-7 percentage points, he will win the electoral college vote only narrowly. The large gap in popular vote will be made possible by many traditionally Republican states becoming closer, in some cases extremely close. Some examples would be Montana, Georgia, Indiana and North Carolina which were won by Bush in 2004 by almost 20 points. They will be very close, but I believe McCain will hang on to all of them except for New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa. After taking a closer look at Pennsylvania polls, although I do think that McCain made a valiant attempt, I believe he will fall short in the end. I won't discuss my feelings on an Obama win. They really aren't relevant to a prediction. Needless to say though, ConsRep...I think you are being extremely positive in your reaction to Obama winning (which I admire, I wish I felt the same way). I think we are in for some rough times ahead...
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 15 4 days to go...will update once more... Version: 12 Well, a little over a month to go...I have a feeling I will updating this many more times. Let's not jump on the Obama train too quickly as it seems many on here tend to do. There is still plenty of time left and many things that could change this thing up...I still feel deep down in my gut it is going to be very close at the end. No matter what the polls say... Version: 6 To comment on several other states...I think New Jersey definitely has the potential to be in play for McCain but he needs to start working hard there NOW. I am rather conflicted on Pennsylvania. I really thought it would have gone Republican in '04. The fact that it didn't has me thinking Obama will win there, however, it is still too early to say as I think that many of Clinton's voters will go with McCain. Lastly, Connecticut. I had originally thought that McCain had potential in Connecticut given his relatively high polling for a Republican in New England and Lieberman's endorsement. The polls seem to be proving me otherwise. We will have to see how things start to shape up once the real campaigning begins, but for now I am going to shift back to saying that it is safe for Obama. Version: 5 As stated previously, I think that this really should be John McCain's election to lose on paper. In reality there should be much in his favour, despite it being a down year for Republicans. However, I still feel deep down that this is not how this is going to shape up, but I stop short of making any grandiose predictions for Obama based on gut feeling alone. I am on the fence currently with how Colorado will go. It SHOULD on all accounts be a safe Republican state. However, when the rest of the country was swinging more in favour of Bush in '04, Colorado had a decent swing in the opposite direction. I think Obama COULD win this state. We will wait and see. As for Virginia which Democrats are insisting is winnable, I only see this happening if Obama chooses a running mate from the state (Webb or Kaine). Granted, the state will be a lot closer than in '04. The last state I will comment on for now is North Carolina. I just don't see this happening for Obama. The only reason that North Carolina didn't have an overwhelming swing towards Bush in '04 was due to Edwards being Kerry's running mate. Even with Edwards on the ticket, Bush STILL fairly handily won the state. I think Obama would do well do concentrate elsewhere. This is still very early... Version: 3 Subject to change once again, but wanted to update now that the two party nominees are in place...this election really should be John McCain's to lose. All the elements are in place for him to thump Obama...I just can't help but have this feeling though that this is not how this is going to go down... Version: 2 This prediction is assuming a Giuliani/Thompson and Clinton/Obama match-up. I think Giuliani will make New York close, but Clinton will hold him off. However, Giuliani will tip Connecticut and New Jersey in his favour, not to mention several other states. Democrats need to make some desperate changes in frontrunners soon if they have any hopes in 2008, but they won't. Version: 1 Giuliani in a landslide...no matter who he faces. If not Giuliani, I will be back to reassess.
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