Comments History
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hideVersion: 82
In an odd shape of events, McCain works hard to switch Pennsylvania only to lose Ohio. With narrow victories in Ohio, Virginia and western states Obama enters the white house!
Version: 81
My Halloween map
Nader surprises everyone including Fox news and Obama cultists by carrying the country in a landslide. Because I vote Obama MN stays Democratic....
Bob Barr carries the Wallace states and Cynthia McKinney carries DC and Vermont and other crazies!
Version: 80
Just a few % changes in my weekend prediction map!
Polls are all over the place from 3-14% Obama...truth is only little more than a week from now...McCain is pounding away on his themes and some will stick, while Obama is pounding away on his themes - some of which will stick...
Version: 79
A narrowing of the race this weekend, I thought I would give you my Monday outlook as i am working in the kitchen of my little restaurant this weekend....
McCain's tax message is getting some traction and his economic message is too. Fear of large tax and spend liberal is sinking into some minds!
Version: 78
Ohio to Obama and Change in % only for others to show more concern from me about the final outcome.....
I feel now 24 seat gain in house and the following in Senate
NH, VA, NM, CO, AK,
toss up MN, OR, NC, Georgia and MS
lean Lousiana (she gets 50% on election day!) and Kty
Version: 77
One state change for me and a number of % changes...Obama continues to draw them in and the early voting in many states is heavily democratic.
Still there will be changes in the last two weeks! A cute cartoon in Wasshington Post today by Toles about robo-calling!
Version: 76
It seems Obama has solidified his hold on Kerry/Gore states but I feel Ohio is for Mccain as is Florida less so. Missouri is the real tossup for me as is Nevada. I feel Colorado and Virginia lean slightly to Obama and with early voting the margin may be too great for McCain to turn around in Virginia.
I am adjusting my polls to three factors which i have mentioned before....bradley effect, cell phone undercount and undecideds breaking for McCain by a couple of points on the last weekend.
Version: 75
I am switching Florida for Missouri although I doubt either will be Obama's on election day. Obama has peaked for now but if Colin Powell endorses him I expect a slight bump again...
I think it is 50-50 who Powell will endorse...
The Dems are gaining more in the house though...I now expect a 20 seat gain...
Version: 74
McCain was on the attack last night but was it enough-no as debate watchers rated it a 5-3 decision for Obama. McCain's problem is now people can see Obama as president. McCain still has a chance but it is diminshed with the end of the last public debate.
I feel the economy is pushing Florida into Obama's lap while some other states because of demographic changes like Colorado (young and lots of new resident's) and Virginia (lots of new residents around DC, pluis 20% black vote), and Nevada will some nuclear waste and economic issues will narrowly favor Obama.
Will it tighten-yes in my mind but I can now see a 2-3% Obama win. 49.5%-46.5% 4% other....
Version: 73
This is my map taking into account the current polls and subtracting my bradley effect estimate which some put as high as 5%.....
Final result 277 to 261 a close race and the key for me is Virginia....I see a narrow win there for Obama despite heavy voting in rural places...
Version: 72
mostly changes in % of probability.....
Still waiting for the likely McCain rebound to make it almost even again-I believe their will be a comeback but until Dow Jones stabilizes it may not happen...
Palin distraction a negative for now but she will rebound too!
Version: 71
Although I do not think this is how it will end I give a nod to polls and the need to update my map....
Indiana- making McCain work defensively this states slips to GOP by narrow margin..
Missouri- current Obama lead will not last goes Rep.
Ohio- working class is struggling amidst economic woes and finally Obama catches a few of them for a narrow win
Florida- elderly scared of economics, strong youth vote, and hispanic support even among some Cuban-Americans...narrow Obama
Virginia- heavy early voting favoring Obama
NV, CO and NM-western three Obama can win all of them for some local issues, demographic changes and historical voting patterns
Version: 70
A nod to the polls!
Version: 69
OK I thought i would make a map showing some Obama bounce for the economic question-just to make it interesting I gave him Florida and not Ohio!
Version: 68
An adjustment mostly in %, but I think the economics is benefiting people's perception of the Democrats. Plus I just spent some time in the sunshine state and the amount of Obama support in the area south of Tampa-Sarasota, Ft. Meyers and naples was surprising to me. Lots of signs and some fervent talk.
I just do not know what to make of Republicans voting for obama and Dems voting for McCain. I think it washes out except for racial factor. I stick with my 5% rule and fear any state less than 5% come election eve....for either candidate.
Version: 67
Reflecting some recent polls plus some antedoctal info this is where I feel the map is in a week. SInce I am traveling in Florida visiting my republican brother, I thought I would update some %'s.
Additionally, I have heard from three sets of families with Republican/Independent relationships-none of whom voted Democratic in their voting histories...all of whom are voting for Obama. My brother and his wife, freinds in MN and NJ. In half the group of six the reason is the failure of the last six years...in the other three spouses are voting Democratic because of the Palin pick. One even went to a Democratic headquarters in NJ and volunteered.
Now this is far from scientific but it indiciates undercurrents which the polls are not picking up and all six are Catholics. ANother one of my former students who is in his mid-thirties is voting for McCain. He does not think we are ready for a black president. The subtle racist choice is out there too...there is some bradley effect and it is weird who and where this is effecting people.
Now do I think Florida will go Democratic - no but there may be some weirdness to this election. I am beginning to think that a state like Pennsylvania will go Republican while Ohio may go the other direction.
The cross currents show great fluidity is my point. About 20% of the public is adrift and times are confusing and the candidates not necessarily knowledgeable about the real change we need...
Version: 66
This is a prediction of where I think the election will end up in November. I do think Obama's ground game in Virginia is awesome. I was there for awhile a few weeks back and it is amazing the energy and strength he is showing there.
Anyway I believe the debates will solve this election choice for many...
Version: 65
I feel it is trite to predict a tie but that is how close I believe this race is at present. As i have said in the past the side that can convince Americans that they have some solutions to our grave concerns....energy, war, debt, health care, education, infrastructure -that side will win.
In the end I believe this is shaping up to be a typical election division and that is unfortunate. This is not about social ills which are important but about a plan for the century and how we continue as a healthy society....
Version: 64
I took criticsm of my map and returned Pennsyl. to the Dems as I feel this is most likely to happen....
on to the debates!
Version: 63
This is my Republican convention bounce which showed how excellent a choice Palin is for the base and gives many people a reason to vote Republican.
This pick not only energizes the Republicans, it gives safe haven for people who are uneasy about Obama for any reason from lack of experience to racism. By having a strong female presence it initially gives an added boost....as CR, myself and others stated in the month leading up to this choice she was a strong pick.
Now on to the post bounce world.....and then the debates. What the polls do show is the fluidity of this race which is greater than in either 2000 or 2004.
Version: 62
Ok this is my first gut feeling about the election - closer than most think and similar to 2000 with a few changes by % points only....my shakiest prediction is Ohio and Virginia as I think we need to see how the campaign plays out from here.
Both tickets are enjoying support among the base and I feel it is a more liberal/conservative choice than before. There is anger among a number of women that a conservative woman may be the next VP. It will lessen the Hilary vote for McCain in my mind.
Version: 61
Obama/Biden vs Mccain/?
This is my map until the Rep. VP is nominated. Obama is doing well in the west but will see his Ohio and Virginia campaigns not materialize to the degree he wants. Biden give the ticket some foreign policy gravitas despite his mouth....
Watch the primary in Alaska on Tuesday to see the outcomes of House and Senate races...if incumbents win then both will probably go down to defeat.
Obama gets 8-10% bump from today until after the convention...
Version: 60
Obama Bayh 48%
McCain Romney 48%
Barr 2%
Nader 1%
other 1%
Even though Romney does not play well in some area, he brings advantages to others like Michigan, NH and Obama takes Indiana barely with Bayh...but it is not enough as his debate performances do not match his rhetoric on the stump...
People pick experience over change....as the Iraq war fades in significance and McCain has the more comprehensive energy plan....
But I still vote Democratic although I fill out my ballot bottom to top with the Presidential choice the last one I make reluctantly....
Democrats take 5 senate seats less than they hoped for as Alaska stays Republican and so does Oregon...The incumbent in Alaska loses his primary and takes a bridge to nowhere..
Democrats take 12 extra house seats less than they hoped for...
McCain becomes a one term President and Romney runs in 2012...against???
Version: 59
A close election no matter what....Obama leads popular vote but electoral vote magnifies closeness....
Obama 48%
McCain 47%
Barr 3%
Green 1%
Nader/other 1%
Version: 58
Fantasy map #3 2012
Warner - D of Virginia
Romney - R of ?
I feel that Romney pulls in some voters in some states like Michigan but fails to counter the need to offer something different in solutions - not to his fault but the economy and international situation are difficult for anyone and we may enter the era of one term Presidents....
This is possible after the election of McCain and his nomination of Romney as VP. McCain retires with some international successes but with divided government he and the democratic congress suffer big time in not providing solutions to a number of problems and catering to special interests.
A spirited campaign in which both sides valiently try to sway American cynicism against political process. Warener pciks Westerner as VP while Romney picks a southerner....Romney makes error and endorses Cuban relations policy alienating the Florida block even though it is the correct policy.
Version: 57
Here is my Carter vs Reagan map of 1976.
Reagan secures the nomination after the same battle we had in 1976, unites the party minus Rockefeller North East, and wins besting Carter in the debates....no Ford gaffe about Eastern Europe from Reagan. Settles country down after Watergate/Ford administration.
Carter picks Muskie of Maine for VP and Reagan picks George Bush....after 8 years of hardknuckle diplomacy country turns to Democrats in 1984 electing Senator Nunn of Georgia...
Version: 56
Carter/Bensten vs Ford/CA VP
Ford not pardoning Nixon, gains some traction but Carter benefits from Watergate and fluent in SPanish is able to carry New Mexico.
Version: 55
Robert Kennedy vs Richard Nixon vs George Wallace
This is the election that would have defined America for a generation. Bobby picks a Westerner for a running mate. He carries California on that strength....the electoral vote is about what it is and a narrow victory for Kennedy...the CA electoral plus is made up by the NY, Penn., OH, IL and other states minus so actually Kennedy scores above 280 in votes and is President.
Richard Nixon disappears from history. China trip taken in Kennedy's second term after a sucessful withdrawal from Vietnam in 1970....and a federation formed in Vietnam between north and south...which unites in 1976 with less bloodshed.
China and US outplay Soviet Union which again collapses under its own weight...during a Ronald Reagan presidency in first elected in 1976 with a second term in 1980. Ronald Reagan pressures Israel to return lands to Arab states for guarantee. He lessens the Arab anger and receives tacit support for rescue of hostages in Iran and supports Iraq in its war until gasing of civilians. George Bush has two terms with first in 1980 and reaches out to Iran to deal blow to Hussein who is assassinated by Shittite faction leading to disintergration of Iraq into civil war. Iran and USA support Shia faction to stabilize region.
Lack of cohesive Iraq means no gulf war and no attack on Twin Towers. US/Iran/Saudi Arabia seek to stabilize region with help of Eqypt.
OK fantasy time but what might have happened.....
this also includes a Democrat elected in 1988...anyone want to guess who is not to become President-Bill Clinton- 1988 Democrat is a moderate southerner Sam Nunn. Robert Kennedy and Ronald Reagan give USA 16years of peace and prosperity...
Version: 54
Well, this is my new map for Indpendence day-I tried to make it as Red and Blue with u=hues as possible...new Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead in Montana .....of course I do not think in the end many red states will vote for him but polls are polls....
Version: 53
Another map representing my new opinon of Barr.
Obama 49%
McCain 48.5%
Green .5%
Nader .5%
Barr 1.5%
Version: 52
Just thought I would change a few %'s and change Missouri back to McCain....of course it is going to be a long time before the election....but I like seeing the changing maps of everyone..
Version: 51
I update using gut feelings and some recent polls
Obama/McCain/Barr/Nader/Green
48% 46.5% 3% 1.5% 1%
Version: 50
Do I think this is going to happen-I doubt it but I thought I would follow the polls and update the map every week as my mood changes...
Obama vs McCain with Rendell/Sanford as VP
Obama 85% of Dems = 34% (40% used as total Dems)
5% of Reps = 1.6% (32% used as total Reps)
48% of Ind. = 13.44% (28% used as total Inds)
total vote 49.04% Obama
47.26% McCain
1.9% Barr
1 Nader
.8 Green/other
I am giving McCain 90% of Reps., 5% to Obama and 5% to minor parties....
Version: 49
Obama-Biden vs McCain-Sanford
I feel this will be a close election and narrowly favoring Obama. Reason will be economic pain vs security issues. SOcial issues will play small role except in CA where marriage issue will bring down the % vote for Obama as will Bradley effect.
Obama narrowly loses NV, OH and Missouri while McCain narroly loses WI, NM and CO. Narrow victory 2% or less....
Version: 48
Okay this is my best case scenario for McCain with all the Bradley effect you can muster, along with a poor VP choice and unfavorable International situation which will favor McCain...or a favorable Iraq which favors McCain.
I honestly think the true result is somewhere between my last post and this one....the economy is doing so poorly that any improvement might help McCain. Majority of Americans want drilling offshore and in ANWAR...this will hurt both of them.
I see Barr at 2%, Nader at 1% and Green party at 1%...so no effect on campaign. But my best case scenario for Obama is less favorable than my best case scenario for McCain....so things need to go Obama's way if he is going to be elected in Junly....
but on to November....
before then summer vacations with high gas prices, conventions, Olympics and World series....
a long time!
Version: 47
Obama versus McCain optimal map-next map is my optimal McCain map....I donot expect this to happen as I fully believe it will be a close race AND I believe Obama can lose popular vote by 1.5% and still win the election....
Version: 46
Obama/Clinton
I think this is more a possibility than previously thought by me and others. If this ticket lost this is the one way she could claim the mantle in four years...if they won she is VP...
The McCain VP choice would be more interesting...
Version: 45
In my mind this is the best case scenario for Obama catching all the right breaks in the campaign and picking Virgian Webb as VP....
I do not expect this to be the map but this is my Obama dream map....
Version: 44
Following the current polls-for what they are worth this time of the year...memorial day tomorrow and election day a long way away-an eternity in the world of politics....BUT it is an Obama vs McCAin without VP choices...
Version: 43
Obama picks someone else than Webb or a Virginian....
McCain picks lackluster VP choice
vote Obama 48%
McCain 47%
Green 1%
Nader 2%
Barr 2%
Barr takes 10% in Alaska making the vote really close but it goes Rep. by 3% Alaska Senator down to defeat.
Colorado-Dems capture second senate seat
Kansas close vote for Roberts but he hangs on
Louisiana close vote for Landrieu but national mood punishes cong. Republicans
Maine easy re-election
Minnesota Franken laughs all the way to defeat
Mississippi upset of night one for Dems because of black turnout
NH dem gain in senate
NM another dem pickup
NC DOle by a few points
Oreg. Gordon by a few
SD easy reelection
TX small victory for TX rep senate incumb.
Virg. landslide for Warner Pres in future?
plus six senate seats and plus 12 congressional seats!
Version: 42
This is my Obama/Webb vs McCain map....
I feel the economy will drag down McCain and thus enable Obama to carry PA and MI and retain WI, Obama benefits froms a harmonius Denver convention and gives a good speech, Webb a better one for affirming the patriotic stance of most Democrats....helps in carrying VA for the team....
McCain looks tired in OCtober and has a bad debate performance, maybe a temper outburst agaisnt the tilted media..so this is a high water prediction for Obama...
Version: 41
My CLinton/McCain map showing some loses and some gains for her in this race. I do think she could be elected and this would be my best scenario for her....
I prefer Obama but I am willing to take another look at her if her supporters on these posts do not drive me away like the Obama supporters some times do to them! Ugh!
Version: 40
A shading of change in some states, but I am awaiting next weeks primaries to see how this unfolds further.
Obama-Mccain
Version: 39
Obama lost some of his lead among Independents and some of his strength with men in my latest weekly update....McCain wins.
Version: 37
Obama repounding from Wright pounding in last month-so is Clinton repounding from misstatements in their race against McCain. Obama shows greater strength in West and Clinton in south where she carries Florida....
This will be up and down no matter who is the candidate...VP choice is more important to McCain than to Dems in some areas of the country.
Bob Barr to run for Libertarian nod for president...such will hurt McCain if he gets the nod - but Gravel is running too...
Version: 36
Obama makes some recovery from Wright pounding and Clinton takes it on the chin for misspeaking on foreign trips she took...mostly press hype!
McCain misspeaking hurts him little as press focuses on personality not issues yet. Economy helps both Dems.
Version: 35
Bowing to the current wave of polls and thinking what might happen in the summer here is my current look at the new McCain presidency- a one term wonder too! Just like Bush 41...
Just like 100 years ago 2012 will be the Democratic year...
Version: 34
Obama versus McCain
Although John is having a knockup great March-the economy will pull him down a bit by election day. And the Clinton - Obama fight will have healed better than the 1980 Kennedy/Carter and much better than the 1968 debacle...
Yes, I was there for that one...not as a protester but a worker at the convention....
Version: 33
Obama vs Mccain
Version: 32
I switched Virginia to Obama and Ohio back to Mccain based on recent polling.....it will be close!
Version: 31
Obama versus McCain based on recent polls....last map prior to the end of March 4th for me...
I am heartened that Obama is scoring well against McCain but a little disheartened that Clinton is doing so poorly in matchups...keeps highlighting the gender issue for me which seems to be playing out more than the race question...
Voting heavy in WI today and some of my friends say people waiting in lines in cold weather to vote prior to 7AM...
Wisconsin the inventor of the primary in this country- so some history buffs owuld say!
Version: 30
I have moved Ohio to Mccain based on recent polling against Obama vs Mccain where he is carrying some mountain states wide margin but losing narrowly in Ohio....
Version: 29
Based on some recent Rasmussen polls on Colorado I believe Obama will carry Colorado and thus possibly Nevada. I am still giving Obama Ohio although I am doubtful of this but Obama will hold the northeast, uppermidwest and northwest against the 'war hero'....
Version: 28
Obama vs Mccain
Mccain needing to shore up his base pushes Independents to Obama in greater numbers.....
48% Obama
46% McCain
5% Libertarian
1% other/green
Version: 27
Obama-Easley vs McCain-?
Race still is factor in election but subtle and difficult to predict. McCain gains independents and some Dems but loses some conservative Reps. Obama draws out youth vote and holds most of the base especially with NC governor.
48% Democratic
45% Republican
6% Ron Paul
1% other
Version: 26
I have added back Wisconsin to Clinton totals against McCain. I do believe that if Ron Paul runs we can add a couple of more states. But the vaunted weakness with men has shown itself very clearly in Hilary's vote totals in Midwest and west....
Clinton 47.5%
McCain 44.5%
Ron Paul 7%
other 1%
% of conservatives and liberal sit home...120,000,000 vote but is lowere than last election.
Version: 25
I have added Iowa back to Dems based on some local input from Rep friends in Iowa. Conserv. base will sit out enough of a % to effect the race!
Version: 24
I have moved two states to Clinton in this version....
Florida and Washington....
49% McCain
46% Clinton
3% Ron Paul
2% Nader/Green
Version: 23
McCain vs Hilary Clinton
50% to 47%
selection of VPs will help increase vote here and there AND this may be McCain high point....
Version: 22
Clinton/? 40%
McCain/Crist 35%
Bloomberg/Hagel 25%
No electoral winner-Bloomberg becomes kingmaker before electoral votes are counted....
Version: 21
Clinton versus Romney
52% 44% 4% Ind.
After 2/5 I will make another adding Bloomberg if necessary....
Version: 20
Clinton/Romney/Bloomberg
40% 33% 27%
Version: 19
Clinton/Romney/Bloomberg
39% 32% 29%
Possible outcome of this election.....
A reminder of 1912 election when Teddy Roosevelt helped Wilson defeat Taft....
Well, Taft went to the Supremes....
Version: 18
Obama/McCain/Bloomberg
39%- 33%- 28%
Version: 17
Clinton/McCain/Bloomberg
38% 33% 29%
Clinton's victory in NH could mean she will pull out Calif. on 2/5 along with several other states. Obama might win Nev. and should win SC but we will see.
ROmney needs Michigan, Huckabee needs SC and on to 2/5.
Biggest loser so far-Giuliani...can he pull off anything in Florida??
We shall see!
Version: 16
My first Obama/McCain/Bloomberg map- I may make a few more as i analyze the spread. It still might be a long way to go though..... Obama 39%, McCain 34%, Bloomberg 27% or so
Bloomberg would take mcCain voters in Northeast and Midwest while taking Dem voters in south and mountain states. Bloomberg might be a covert anti Obama vote for some....
Anyway I have a non election majority....
Version: 15
Initial Prediction and the last one for 2007 of a Clinton, Romney, Bloomberg run..... 27% Bloomberg, 33% Romney, 40% Clinton....
But if Bloomberg takes someone like Sam Nunn then I think his % rises especially in South and parts of Midwest....as people see him solution minded... then 31% Bloomberg, 31% Romney and 38% Clinton and I would add a few more states to Bloomberg, swithc a few to the Republicans....
The higher the Bloomberg % the more he cuts into Dem. votes...under 20% hurts Rep. the most.
Well, lots of time to see this develop, but it will be interesting to see how the meeting arranged by Nunn, Boren of Oklahoma on non partisanship works out which Bloomberg is attending...
Version: 14
Obama versus Huckabee versus Bloomberg
Some of Democratic vote goes to Huckabee in south or especially Bloomberg; some of Rep vote in midwest, west and east goes to Bloomberg but he ends up being number two in many states and takes a few from both sides...
Version: 13
This is my Christmas present to ConservRep. A Hilary versus McCain no VP indicated for either. Although I feel he has an outside chance at nomination I still feel he is the strongest against Hilary- a recent pol 49-43 with him in the lead indicates it is possible. He wins trust issue, strong an defense and no torture stance is refreshing.
Biggest handicap age and experience as voters want something new and neither Hilary or MCCain quite fill the bill. Of course there could be a third party in the wings?
Oh if you switch either Iowa or Oregon and then add WI to DEM totals you have a 270 tie!
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Version: 12
This is my Romney/Hilary map without running mates although I think it would be good for Hilary to take a sitting Governor as a running mate.....
Version: 11
Clinton versus Huckabee
new polls show Huckabee ahead in Ohio and Missouri over Clinton within margin of error though....This might be an interesting nailbiter again with both parties breaking through in some different areas.
Version: 10
Obama versus Huckabee with the election pivoting on Ohio- I pick Obama chosing ted Strickland to keep the state in dem column.....Bloomberg would not run and neither would Ron Paul if these two were nominees...
Version: 8
Back to Hilary/Giuliani prediction after a breif fling with mccain for comparison sake. New Polls from Survey USA for Kentucky make me move them to Dem. column briefly...
Local polls in MN so Hilary playing well in outstate MN among women and ind. men......
But it is a shaky lead from my point of view!
Version: 7
This is my Clinton/McCain map. I feel he is the strongest opponent against Hilary despite his war stance. I do not think he will get the nod but if he did I think he would win. Plays well in midwest and west.
Version: 6
Some slippage in Clinton support changes how some states are ranked and I think unless she names Bayh or Strickland Ohio will be tough again. BUT, she is trending well in upper Missippi and Upper Midwest....strong women support from moderate Inded. and Rep women.....
Guiliani does not play well out here but McCain does....
If McCain was the nominee I believe he would carry Iowa and Wisconsin....
Version: 5
With recent polls showing some weakness in Hilary's campaign I have adjusted some states like FLorida and Ohio. However, I feel that there is a growing acceptance to her as a candidate in the midwest where anti war and women outwiegh male concerns among independents and Dems. I also feel she will pick a midwesterner for a running mate....
Version: 4
I have moved Ohio more than likely temporarily into the Dem. column. I feel recent polls favor Hilary and Guiliani is weakening ....Hilary has had some recent polls which show her increasing after some weakness.
I feel the final election could still be someone other than Guiliani or Hilary. Huckabee is stirring and many in Midwest and West yearn for someone else in either party....a third party by Ron Paul would generate both Rep., Independent and dem votes....
Version: 3
I have moved Virginia back to Democratic column while adjusting some %. I feel that the weakness Hilary will have with Midwest and western men is somewhat offset by female voters and conservatives bolting Rudy or staying home. Ohio is tougher but close like all elections in recent past and now I am moving it to the Democratic column but weak.
Version: 2
Although the race between Guiliani and Clinton is by no means guaranteed, there is a strong possibility of occurance. The weakness with Males for Clinton and with COnservatives for Guiliani means a Libertarian candidate like Ron Paul, or a liberal like Bloomberg would make a dent-usually against the Republican candidate. Situation fluid but Clinton will gather 46 plus % against any candidate.....
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