Comments History
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hideVersion: 21
Obama-Biden 51.5%
McCain-Palin 46.5%
Nader-Gozonlez 0.8%
Barr-Root 0.8%
Other 0.4%
We have yet to see the expected tightening, and in fact Obama continues to improve his position in state polling. Closest states: Montana and Georgia, each of which will be affected by third party candidacies of Ron Paul and Bob Barr, respectively. My predictions for Democratic gains in Congress are up very slightly from two weeks ago: +8-10 in the Senate, highlighted by the ousting of Saxy Chambliss in Georgia, and +27-35 in the House.
Version: 20
Obama-Biden 51%
McCain-Palin 47%
Barr-Root 1%
Other 1%
Obama's lead has increased since my last post. The debates have been helpful to him thus far, and Wednesday night's domestic policy debate will even more helpful. Dems. sweep the national elections, picking up 7-9 Senate seats and 25-35 House seats. The closest states in the presidential election are Indiana, North Carolina, and Georgia. Bob Barr's candidacy and huge African-American turnout in Georgia make for a razor thin margin for McCain in that state.
Version: 19
Obama-Biden 50.5%
McCain-Palin 47.5%
Barr-Root 1%
Other 1%
Closest states: Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina.
Obama has as large a lead in the polls as he has had all year. Unlike his leads following his overseas trip and the Democratic convention, there are no game changing events on the horizon, and there are little more than 5 weeks left until election day. The debate on foreign policy, McCain's supposed forte, was, at best, a draw. Polling indicates that Obama gained from the event. He is currently in the clear frontrunner position, with a national lead, according to RCP's average, of 4.8%. Now we head towards a debate between veteran Biden and upstart Palin, the later of whom has put in less than stellar performances in recent interviews with the media. Then a town hall hall debate and a domestic policy debate, the latter a topic in which Obama has many, if not every advantage. My prediction at this point is that the race tightens somewhat, but Obama still wins fairly comfortably. The announcement of an Obama win in Indiana by 7:30 p.m. will point the way towards a tough night for the GOP, including the loss of 8 Senate seats, highlighted by the surprise defeat of Minority leader McConnell, and 20 House seats.
Version: 18
Obama-Biden 50%
McCain-Palin 47.5%
Barr-Root 1.5%
Other 1%
The final stretch. Convention bounces have subsided, and barring additional bad news, Obama has probably gotten all he will get out of the Wall Street fiasco. The debates provide the candidates with an opportunity for a gamechanging event. More likely, they will solidify their existing support with decent enough performances. The possibility of the fabled 'October surprise' or major gaffes remains. These possibilities aside, this will be the map heading into the general election.
Version: 17
THE OMAHA SPIKE AND ACTING PRESIDENT BIDEN
One of the really fun things about this site is exploring admittedly remote but fascinating possibilities. Recently, a number of sites have predicted a 270-268 EV McCain win. This, along with a recent dkos article on the so-called "Omaha spike" - those scenarios in which an additional electoral vote would either create or break an electoral tie - inspired this scenario.
538.com recently outlined the possibilities of electoral ties as follows:
"(22 times out of 10,000 simulations): Obama wins Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Nevada. I somewhat dismissed this scenario in the polling write-up today, arguing that Obama was unlikely to win Nevada if he lost Colorado, but in fact such possibilities occur reasonably often.
(22 times): Obama wins Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado - New Hampshire. This is simply Al Gore's map, plus Colorado.
The only other scenario to come up in the double digits was this one:
(10 times) Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Virginia - Michigan. The five Bush states that Obama is most likely to flip are Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama succeeds in flipping four of the five, but loses Ohio and the companion state of Michigan, we'll have a tie."
The middle scenario is the one most often displayed in predictions on this site. Obama is actually strengthening his lead in NH, though, despite McCain gains elsewhere.
In the article, 538 fails to mention the possibility of Obama flipping NE-1 (Lincoln and rural Eastern Neb.) or NE-2 (Omaha & environs). An early August poll had McCain up 46-42% in NE-2. While it would be reasonable to assume that the margin in NE-2 has widened along with much of red america, such would overlook the Warren Buffett factor. Buffett, the renound financier, is a strong Obama supporter and Omaha resident. I can imagine a ad featuring Buffett in Omaha in the closing weeks of the campaign if these tight EV spreads persist.
At 5 a.m. on the morning of November 5, Nevada is called for McCain by a slim margin, but New Mexico remains too close to call. The lawyers descend upon Albequrque for a recount that everyone assumes will determine the outcome of the presidential election. As votes in Nebraska's CDs are tabulated, though, it is discovered that Obama indeed could have won in CD2. NM goes McCain by a mere 117 votes, but "Obamamaha" saves the Democratic candidate by an even thinner 61 vote margin, thus locking the candidates in an electoral tie and throwing the election to the House of Representatives.
A combination of McCain's popular vote lead and less than expected Dem. pickups in House elections results in neither party's presidential candidate recieving the requisite 26 state delegations. Senate Democrats, on the heels of picking up 7 seats in that chamber, easily select Biden as the nation's vice-president, and thus Acting President pending a break in the House deadlock.
Could Biden just choose Obama as his VP and then be done with it? Could the House revive the issue following 2010 elections? Wouldn't it all be too wild??
Version: 16
Obama-Biden 49%
McCain-Palin 46%
Bar-Root 3%
Nader-Gonzolez 1%
Others 1%
Closest states: Nevada and Colorado.
Version: 15
Obama-Biden 49%
McCain-Cantor 46%
Barr 3%
McKinney 1%
Nader 1%
A more modest Obama victory, illustrating that Ohio is not necessary to electoral sucess for Obama, but either Ohio or Colorado or Virginia is. By the time of my next prediction, we should know who the running mates are.
Version: 14
Tommorrow, Obama will announce his running mate, Virginia governor Timothy Kaine, in Missouri, Kaine's home state. Emphasizing the successful theme of change, Kaine is a relentless campaigner who holds moderate views. His experience as a lawyer involved in housing discrimination cases and poular governor of conscience will help to bring the ticket to an electoral landslide in the fall.
McCain's unexciting choice of Pawlenty fails to bring any real competiveness in the upper Midwest.
The Dems gain seven seats in the Senate, increasing their majority to 58, and 20 seats in the House. A new era in American politics begins.
Version: 13
Obama-Bayh 50%
McCain-Christ 44%
Barr-Root 4%
McKinney-Mesplay 1%
Nader-Gonzolez 0.8%
Version: 12
McCain-Blackburn
Obama-Schweitzer
Version: 11
Obama-Sebellis vs. McCain-Sanford
Version: 10
Clinton vs. McCain
Minnesota would lean Dem with Pawlenty.
Indiana would lean GOP with Bayh.
Version: 9
Obama-Easley vs. McCain-Romney
Version: 8
Clinton pulls into a virtual tie by the end of the primaries, and an overwhelming number of delegates lean on the candidate to join forces.
Clinton/Obama storm out of Denver and stomp McCain/Sanford.
Version: 7
Obama/Kaine vs. McCain/Pawlenty
Version: 6
McCain/Pawlenty vs. Clinton/Bayh
The frontrunners of ean party square off.
Version: 5
I've seen this story that the Dems are supposedly holding their tongues in hopes that Huckabee gets the nomination. Someone is quoted as saying he'd be "their McGovern". I don't buy this, but wondered what such a map would look like. Here is the best I could figure.
Obama/Nunn
Huckabee/Buchanan
Version: 4
D: Obama/Edwards
R: Romney/McCain
Obama wins the Iowa caucaus, a close second in NH, and wins SC, setting up wins in a number of Feb. 5 states and therafter, while racking up delegates in many states won by Clinton. Edwards throws his support to Obama therafter, and Obama wins late season victories in TX and IN.
Romney racks up wins in IA, NH, SC, and MI, and while Guiliani wins FL, CA & NY, its not enough to clinch. The other conservatives in the race support Romney at the GOP convention, putting him over the top.
The closeness of each of the races leads to other primary candidates becoming the standard bearer's running mate.
IN should be toss-up. In a recent poll, the generic Dem candidate beats the GOP - it would be the first time since '64!
Version: 3
Clinton/Bayh vs. Romney/Huckabee
Version: 2
Clinton/Vilsack vs. Guiliani/T.Thompson
Version: 1
Clinton/Richardson vs. Romney/Thompson