Obama vs McCain

I'm hesitant to make any state changes until the general election starts. Missouri seems to be moving a bit Republican right now, so I changed that. Although I didn't make the change, I think Florida is very close to Lean Republican now.

I still think Obama will make significant inroads into the Republican strongholds of the Intermountain West and Plains. It'll be tough, but it's possible he could take a couple of these states. I think he'll also do fine with the Atlantic Southern states (VA, NC, SC, GA, FL). However, the remaining Southern states will be very difficult with a few going over 60% for McCain.

The most competitive region of the country will be the Rust Belt. The Appalachian parts of these states will almost certainly go heavily for McCain. I don't think he'll pull it off though. I have to give Obama a good edge here based on the economy.

I suppose this is something like a 3%-4% win for Obama (not yet including third parties). Even so, I think the numbers will shift quite a bit once the Democratic race is over. I'm going to hold off on any state changes until then.

Obama vs. McCain

Disclaimer: This is a very preliminary match-up, with a lot based on current polling. This is subject to much change throughout the year.

I think Obama's strength among Independents and a lower conservative turnout from 2004 help him win most of the 2004 battleground states. He should also be able to make significant inroads into the Plains and Rocky Mountain states, although it remains to be seen if he actually wins any (other than Colorado, of course). It's just a wild guess, but I also think Alaska could be surprisingly close.

The South will almost certainly be very hostile to Obama. He'll might be able to do well with states with higher African-American populations. He could win a few with exceedingly high turnout, but I think states like Alabama and Mississippi are definitely out of reach.

If conservative turnout is demoralized, things could get worse for McCain. This map counts on at least a somewhat depressed conservative base. If McCain doesn't pick a VP to placate them, McCain could very well lose 40+ states.

On the popular vote, this is probably a 3%-5% victory for Obama. It might be something like 51%-47%.

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