Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-23 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	348
Rep	190
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	301
Rep	124
Ind	0
Tos	113

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+96	0	0	0	20	2	252	+96
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-96	23	3	190	-96
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
89	48	34	4	3

Analysis

Okay...hopefully my last prediction.

Here is what I'm thinking... I've said it before and I will say it again: this election is all about turnout, turnout, turnout.

On that note, I think that the polling is an accurate reflection of people's preferences, but may not really reflect what those people will do on election day. Therefore, I think that Obama will over-perform the polls in places where:

1) Those that support him belong to his core base of supporters (i.e. minorities, young people, and professionals).
2) He has a good grassroots network in place and an oiled GOTV operation.
3) McCain has little or no GOTV operation.

For these reasons, I think Obama will over perform in the South and bring in a solid take in VA, NC and win GA by a hair. Just remember: the McCain campaign has been on the ground for 3 weeks at most in these places - and in the case of GA not at all. McCain is throwing the kitchen sink at OH and I think it will pay off. Plus, the fact that McCain thinks he has any shot at PA must mean he has a pretty good chance at OH. Ditto MO...for some strange reason I have never seen that one happening for Obama - but I am probably wrong and it will go Obama.

As for MO, ND, SD: I just don't see these happening. The polls coming out of these places have been all over the place and had too many undecideds. Also, surprisingly little polling in SD... but given its similarity to ND, SD has to be a tossup if ND is a tossup.

Also, I'd like to take this moment to say, "I told you so". I was one of the original Obama landslide guys and also the first one (take that Bonn ;)) that pitched the "Obama will win the new south" concept back in February - where it remained discussion board heresy for some months. Yes yes....I agree with what you all must be thinking - I am pretty great ;).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-23 @ 19:21:58
Or possibly GCeres is right and Obama will accidentally admit to being a black nationalist Muslim socialist hellbent on the destruction of apple pie while on Meet the Press, thus allowing McCain to win in a squeaker =).

By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-23 @ 19:24:49
I have NEVER said he was a Muslim and have corrected people when they did. However, he IS a black nationalist Socialist...very little doubt there.

By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-23 @ 19:26:09
btw...will you be retracting the "I told you so" when he fails to win a single southern state?

By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-23 @ 20:30:15
I'll do one better. If Obama: 1) Wins by less than 300 EV's or 2) Fails to carry at least VA and NC I will be eating some serious crow on this site. Look for a mea culpa from me on November 5th if either of these things should come to pass. What about you GCeres? ;)

By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-10-23 @ 20:51:21
I think you're right that Ohio is a tough nut b/c McCain is (and has been) contesting these electoral votes. And I also think it makes sense that Obama will over-perform vis-a-vis the polls in states where his campaign has been organizing for a sustained period of time and McCain hasn't been organizing.

By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-10-24 @ 13:39:07
Gceres, so you think Barack Obama is like Marcus Garvey or Malcolm X? How so?

By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-24 @ 18:33:35
Haha! Here is a clue for all you Republican Kool-Aid drinkers: Next time you decide that the best way to regain campaign momentum is to fabricate a racial attack and carve a "B" into your own face make sure to remember that things that look normal in the mirror will appear as a mirror image to everyone else! Sorry, I just hate to see y'all get played like that... Actually, I apologize in advance - I realize that deep down this is not a funny situation and certainly would not seriously suggest that this young lady represents even the fringes of the Republican Party. I'm just taking such perverse pleasure in seeing Fox News running this as their LEAD STORY in the morning and then having to retract it in the afternoon. Way to check facts guys. Fair and balanced.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-24 @ 18:37:59
Yes, as I said yesterday, it looked like a total hoax...and I as I said, the jig was up pretty quickly. This is why I think McLame will lose. Look at all the desperation. I mean even Gceres wants McSame to make Obama the reason people should vote for McPain. I said long time ago that wasn't going to work. People do not like McCrap.

By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-31 @ 16:20:53
Well... Since I've been really wrapped up in the early voting turnout this time around I've decided to post early voting returns from now until election day. Since early voting returns are based on polls all the standard caveats apply. Most of these are going to come from PPP and Survey USA since these are generous enough to post their marginals for all to see. Here we go... Today 10/31 New Mexico: Percent Voting Early to Date: 56% Obama Support Among Early Voters: 64 McCain Support Among Early Voters: 36% Notes: McCain would need 3/4 of the vote on election day to win this. Put a fork in it, this race is done. Indiana 10/31 % Already Voted: 17% Obama: 64 McCain: 32 West Virginia 10/31 % Already Voted: 1% Obama: 50% McCain: 49 Notes: Forget it Democrats, this one is not happening. Colorado 10/31: % Already Voted: 65% Obama: 58 McCain: 41 Notes: This race is done. Michigan 10/31: % Voted: 23% Obama: 60 McCain: 40 Minnesota % Voted: 9% Obama: 59 McCain: 39 Notes: I don't really get this one. I thought Minnesotans liked to vote early. Oregon 10/31: % Voted: 59% Obama: 64 McCain 35 Notes: Bub-baye! Conclusions: Lets hear it for Obama's get out the vote operation! I actually think the race is pretty close if you just look at preferences - get out the vote is what is going to bring in a landslide for Obama. Last Edit: 2008-10-31 @ 16:22:25

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%	4	12	247	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%

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