Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:183

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	349
Rep	189
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	259
Rep	142
Ind	0
Tos	137

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+97	0	0	0	20	2	252	+97
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-97	23	3	189	-97
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
94	48	40	4	2

Analysis

Barack Obama is elected the 44th and first African-American president of the U.S.

These states are close and are the one's I am most worried about calling: Missouri, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. One of these will probably be the closest state of the night. McCain has surged late in both Ohio and Florida. McCain cannot afford to lose either, and both campaigns have focused their last days on these states. I give them very tentatively to Obama. In Ohio, Obama may have enough of any early vote lead beat off a McCain late surge. Missouri is also hanging on a razor thin edge and could go either way. It's status as a bellwether will seriously tested and I give to Obama on the premise of it still being a bellwether. North Carolina remains close, but I believe McCain has shored it up at the last minute.

Even if McCain wins all these states he still loses and that is why I am confident of an Obama win. He has solid leads in all of the states won by Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004. Minnesota has tightened but Obama retains the edge. McCain's campaigning in Pennsylvania is for nothing; he's still behind. Furthermore, Obama has pulled away in Nevada, and has significant leads in Colorado and Virginia, and winning either of these two would put him over 270.

Obama has made significant inroads in very red states Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Georgia. They will be much closer than four years ago, but I expect McCain to prevail in all these states. Strong libertarian candidacies in Montana, and heavy black turnout in Georgia could make these states interesting.

At the end of the day: Obama had the better organization, a more effective message, and a political climate conducive to that message. McCain proved erratic in the last days. But in the larger scope, as I argued, this win was one long in the making. Only historians can decide the significance of this election, but I believe it will be looked back as being very significant.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:18:38
The First Returns are already in: Dixville Notch goes for O The hearty folks in the northern New Hampshire town have renewed their Election Day tradition, heading to the polls just after midnight. The results: Obama 15, McCain 6. And, folks, those are real votes not exit polls. President Bush won the town in 2004.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:46:14
as did Dole in '96 & Bush I in '92. Good analysis. I think Obama takes FL & OH by decent margins. MO, IN & MT are extremely tight.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 02:16:15
Apparently it's the first time a Democrat has won the town since 1968.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:38:11
Hubert Humphrey isn't really our best candidate ever... Are they actually ALLOWED to do that?

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					258
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	6	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	28/35	63/70	90.0%	49	1	16	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	49	1	23	T	272
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	111	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	65	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	19	21	51	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	10	130	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	46	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	45	6	226	T	372
2016 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	63	1	17	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	24/34	56/68	82.4%	55	1	1		362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	25	1	25	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	26/36	59/72	81.9%	34	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	31	0	123	T	300
2012 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	157	0	401	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	20/33	50/66	75.8%	66	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	21	0	5	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	42/52	18/52	60/104	57.7%	105	-	41	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	5	0	37	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	93	2	34	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	94	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	1	1	T	103
2008 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	183	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	101	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	43	1	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	8	2	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	94	1	46	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	103	1	22	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	140	2	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	816/884	586/884	1402/1768	79.3%

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