Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-25 Version:15

Prediction Map
Rock_nj Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Rock_nj Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	313
Rep	148
Ind	0
Tos	77

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
89	51	33	4	1

Analysis

Polls show Obama taking the lead in Indiana. Also, one poll had Georgia with Obama ahead by 1 point, which given the momentum is enough for me to make Georgia lean Republican but a tossup.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-01 @ 19:05:10
this map is kinda cute too ;) seems we have more wishful thinkers here... by the way...if you look at numerous polling firms (not that I believe them, but anyway)...Obama's lead in Pennsylvania has been cut in HALF in the last week...not so far-fetched after all...will be interesting

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-11-01 @ 21:11:36
Is it really hard to believe Obama can win Indiana when the state is essentially tied and next to Illinois? Perhaps the historical voting trend will keep Indiana in the R column this year, but Obama has a realistic shot. He campaigned in Indiana last night. I think the momo might be enough for him to take IN. Even Georgia and Arizona are not out of reach for Obama. Early voting in those states seem to be favoring him. Pennsylvania will stay Democratic. McCain's efforts will fall short. Cutting a lead in half is not winning.

By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-01 @ 22:45:34
And has he really cut the lead in half?? Each of theses pollsters with margins in the mid-sigle digits has a GOP lean. So some tightening, perhaps, but PA is still strong Obama, as opposed to, as Rock points out, GA & AZ being lean McCain to tossup. This is the same as my map, but I'd give Obama the lean in NV and SD + MT are lean GOP if not toss-up. Indiana is indeed a toss-up - about as tied as you can get. Obama has 42 offices here, McCain none. Obama has visited 40 some times - 3 times in the past two weeks, including 35,000 here in Indy last week. McCain has been here I think 6 times, mostly small fundraising visits. Obama has been advertising here for several months. I have yet to see a McCain ad, though I understand that the GOP bought some time a week or two ago. These efforts by Obama will pay off. Obama has a great ground game & GOTV effort. McCain's is non-existent. These efforts by Obama will pay off, IMHO, and Indiana will vote Democratic in a presidential election dfor the first time since 1964. Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 18:27:26

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-11-06 @ 10:43:20
It looks like I was right on with my Presidential Prediction for 2008! Happy about that and happy about the outcome!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 19:23:15
Congradulation Rock. Good prediction, you where right on. Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 19:23:33

By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-07 @ 00:11:39
You rock! Congratulations. The only one you may have missed is Omaha :) How on earth did you know NC and VA and IN would go for Obama but not MO, the supposed bellwether of all bellwethers? WTF?

By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 00:26:59
Good job on the prediction. You are also spot on with percentages in New England and CA. GOP states are too high, though, and I WISH Obama could have bumped over 50% here in IN. I'm still looking for someone with these states + NE2, which I believe will be the end result.

By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 18:29:12
Indeed NE-02 is called for Obama. You, Liberalover & Demboy win the prize.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 20:46:21
In the immortal words of the man himself... My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2008 President	55/56	34/56	89/112	79.5%	15	10	247	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	11/33	44/66	66.7%	5	5	299	T
2004 President	52/56	5/56	57/112	50.9%	63	3	1820	T
Aggregate Predictions	140/145	50/145	190/290	65.5%

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