Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:10

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	353
Rep	185
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	147
Ind	0
Tos	100

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+101	0	0	0	20	2	252	+101
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-101	23	3	185	-101
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
100	50	43	4	3

Analysis

Final prediction. It appears Barack Obama is headed for the White House, but it is closer than many believe. Some of these states* could go either way though.

In the key states and other notes:

Arizona* - After a huge scare, McCain holds on to win by about 3 points in his home state.

Colorado - Obama wins by 7.

Florida* - Obama wins by less than half a point in shades of 2000.

Georgia - McCain wins by 5.

Indiana* - McCain ekes out a nailbiter by a few thousand votes.

Missouri* - McCain wins by 3.

Montana* - McCain wins by 4.

Nevada - Obama wins by 6.

North Carolina* - Closest state of all, Obama wins by less than 1,000 votes and recounts are involved.

North Dakota* - McCain holds on and wins by 2.

Ohio* - Obama wins by 2.

Pennsylvania - Obama wins by 6.

South Carolina - Obama makes it surprisingly close with African-American turnout, but McCain wins by 7.

South Dakota - McCain wins by 8.

Virginia - Obama wins by 5.

West Virginia - McCain wins by 9.

All other states decided by 10 or more points.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	53/56	40/56	93/112	83.0%	1	177	401	T	760
2008 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	10	1	13	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	16/33	46/66	69.7%	2	25	227	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	1	194	152	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	1/3	4/6	66.7%	1	124	102	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	26/33	12/33	38/66	57.6%	10	1	402	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	3	1	22	T	312
2004 President	55/56	39/56	94/112	83.9%	23	3	66	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	266/284	186/284	452/568	79.6%

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