Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-03 Version:1

Prediction Map
jmfcst Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
jmfcst Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Analysis

bad news

Member Comments

By: DemfromCT (D-CT) 2008-10-03 @ 21:39:54
I am not sure if Arkansas and Louisiana are ready to flip to the Dems. just yet. I agree with all the other states though. NE-2 (Omaha & Douglas county district) is even a possibility since Nebraska splits electoral votes.

By: StatesRights (C-FL) 2008-10-04 @ 04:30:41
West Virginia and Georgia wouldn't go, even in that horrific scenario you posted.

By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-10-05 @ 06:07:30
I just don't see Barack getting any southern states except Florida (the non-southern southern state) and MAYBE North Carolina... well, and I suppose he will win Virginia. but that's above the Mason-Dixon line. I was looking at old election results from when the racist George Wallace was running for President on the American Independent Party ticket... it wasn't so long ago... and Wallace did win my hometown back then (in addition to several deep south states). He was the last 3rd party candidate to win electoral votes... all because of racism and the Democrats' then-newfound committment to civil rights for all. People are so closed-minded at times down here. I remain optimistic, however. McCain's hold on the deep south has loosened in the past 2 weeks, although they likely remain McCain country. I often wonder if the Gulf Coast states will surprise us on Election Night. Last Edit: 2008-10-05 @ 06:13:32

By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-05 @ 13:08:16
Well... in this scenerio MS would go D as well.

By: filliatre (R-FRA) 2008-10-05 @ 16:13:18
MT and ND would swing before Arkansas and LA. And, in this case (GA lost), AZ would be threatened as well. Being pessimistic for us, GOPers, is like excoriating bad feelings.... (Sigh)

By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2008-10-05 @ 16:20:53
I actually would suspect that MS might go D before LA would, if only because the true lingering Katrina effect is that there have been much more of a loss of blacks and some working class whites that might be persuadable to Obama due to the economy in LA than in MS because of Katrina three years ago. This might be why Musgrove is having a little easier time in the U.S. Senate race in MS than people thought (not that he will necessarily knock off Wicker, but it could be extremely close). Kennedy, though, in LA's problem is that his message isn't getting through against Landrieau's incumbency. Also, Nebraska's 1st Congressional District centered on Lincoln and the University of Nebraska is much more likely to, at some point, if not this year go Democratic then would 2nd Congressional District centered in Omaha and it's suburbs and the majority of the rest of the rural parts of Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District. Most statewide Democrats who win in Nebraska have to build up a sizable lead in the 1st than hope for at least a cutting even in the 2nd to win. Last Edit: 2008-10-05 @ 16:25:25

By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-10-05 @ 17:07:44
I wouldn't even know where to start...I'll just say this "It won't happen".

By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-10-05 @ 22:39:13
LOL - the same could be said for Gceres' map. At least this one gets the great majority of states correct. pal - the Mason-Dixon line is north of Virginia AND Maryland. So if that's your measure, I suppose you could say that the Dems. have a reliable Dem. voting Southern state. I'd agree that Obama's best Southern states will be, in this order: VA & FL (tilting Obama), NC (toss-up), then WV (leaning McCain), GA, MS, AR, LA (all appear to be safe for McCain). Last Edit: 2008-10-05 @ 22:39:30

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