Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-05 Version:17

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	18
Edwards	0
Obama	34
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	0
Edwards	0
Obama	0
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Analysis

Now its impossible for either candidate to get the upper hand. I think we're headed for a brokered convention.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 04:50:19
I don't agree, I think the party will get its ducks in a line one way or another before August. The Michigan and Florida debacle is the only real obstacle.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-12 @ 05:28:16
Yes I agree with Hillary proving stronger in the back room deals.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-12 @ 17:25:01
I don't think that will be the case. If you're to the point in a campaign where you are relying on rule changes and backroom deals to win -- then you have already lost.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-13 @ 04:11:13
We shall see. It's not over till it's over. She's in for some big wins in the alot of the states left - eg PA, KY, WV, in my opinion so we shall see. She's been written off so many times & yet she's still in it.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-13 @ 14:47:12
Ah but there in could be a problem. If Hillary even appears to have "stolen" the nomination from Obama then she is facing some very angry supporters. And even if Obama gets this thing there are a lot of disgruntled Hillary supporters and moderates. I think this convention could be a lot like 1968. It sure has the same emotional level. Democrats are deeply divided and invested in this race, well I've never seen anything like it. I'm use to in-fighting here in the GOP. That's nothing new, happens all the time. But with Democrats, so very rare.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-13 @ 16:48:19
It won't happen. Superdelegates aren't going to give her the nomination and risk alienating a large voting block like blacks. Clinton's campaign is over. Last Edit: 2008-03-13 @ 16:48:35

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-13 @ 18:26:43
Never underestimate the power of the Clinton machine. And even if she is finished still going to be a lot of pissed off supporters complaining about Florida and Michigan....

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-13 @ 18:40:36
Its real CR Its now!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-13 @ 20:30:58
Florida and Michigan will revote, CR. But she won't get the numbers she needs there to make any real difference. You better believe she won't win Michigan by the same 20 pt margin she did the first time... or Florida by 18.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-19 @ 16:56:48
Oh I quite agree. I think she could even loose Michigan should they revote. That or she'll just barely win as she did in New Mexico and Texas. Florida would also be her's but not my the 18 points. With Edwards out that would help Obama there too. But it looks like Florida doesn't want to vote a second time. It should all be very interesting to see how it plays out. I think that Pennslyvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia are her's for sure. The rest is unknown but I suspect Obama wins the remainders baring any suprises. However I'd say the Queen Bee is far from dead. That doesn't mean Obama won't win but it looks to be a wild convention!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-19 @ 17:11:11
I have the feeling this is going to end with blood and tears.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-19 @ 21:28:21
I would push all Hillary supporters to do as I did today. I called the DNC and asked for a return of all the money I gave, directly to the DNC, and DCCC. They promptly agreed after I sent an email... If any one has made a donation to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee you can email the person handling all refunds at higa@dccc.org. State that you want a prompt return of all funds due to the disenfranchisement of Michigan and Florida. They are very pleasant and will return your money. Last Edit: 2008-03-19 @ 21:28:54

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-19 @ 22:39:45
2000 Voted Gore and campaigned for him. 2004- Primary : Supported Howard Dean General : Voted and campaigned Kerry 2008 Primary : Support Hillary Clinton General : Hillary Clinton or Mc Cain. Considering that polling has been showing that Mc Cain would pick up more Hillary supporters if she were to lose the nomination then Obama supporters voting for Mc Cain if he lost. I am not the only democrat that feels this way. Truly! Ever heard the phrase Reagan Democrat? I would not have voted for Reagan but would classify myself as a working class democrat that wasnt handed everything on a silver spoon like many of the liberal elite trying to take over the party at present. I make up several demographics in this primary but my status in the general election "should" go to a democrat we shall see. My Demographics: 27 year old hard working single gay white male from Los Angeles Ca working class living on at times moderate income in a city that is liberal and expensive to live in. I feel that the commander in chief should share my ideals and beliefs but also be ready to lead and protect the country from day one. Times are too unstable to put an indecisive unknown into the white house whom I dont know if his religious beliefs will dictate his policy and just what those beliefs are, as he says one minute he doesnt agree with decisive nature of politics yet attends surmons from Rev Wright?? That would be yet another unknown? What does he truly believe? one minute he repudiates his comments yet in another he respects and supports him, in the same speech? What is known, is that he lacks experience and an extensive resume. I will not sacrifice my core beliefs in what I think should be required in someone who I cast a ballot for, raise funds and campaign for. By supporting Obama in the general election I would do just that, It would be a complete flip flop and go against everything I stood for in the primary if that were to happen. I unlike many democrats who refuse to wear the D have been proud of my party and its platform and candidates up to this point anyway. Last Edit: 2008-03-19 @ 23:10:31

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-19 @ 23:07:36
CR : LOL Love the Queen Bee title for Hillary

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-20 @ 21:48:09
Why thank you liberal I thought you'd enjoy that. Its a little pet name I have for her but I really used it a lot for Nancy Pelosi. Its good to be proud of who you are. I'm proud to be a white male heterosexual midwestern conservative reagan Republican. I don't much care for John McCain but against Hillary or Obama we can find enough common ground. Sigh, he is more to the right than either of those two. I would agree with whoblitzell, I think this will end in blood and tears. I'm going to get a lot of popcorn and tea for the convention. It should be historical to say the least.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-21 @ 10:29:31
Of course it depends what polling you are citing. The polls I have seen today show an equal number, about one fifth, defecting to McCain if their candidate id not the nominee. Too bad. The experience argument is a lot of hot air. The Clinton schedules show that Hillary was your typical ceremonial first lady following the failure of the health care plan and debacle of 1994. If experience be your sole guide, McCain is your candidate regardless of the Democratic candidate.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-22 @ 00:12:51
McCain is undeniably benefiting from the Obama-Clinton mudslinging contest. If this goes on for too much longer, he will probably win in November.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-22 @ 16:17:37
No offense guys but I hope it goes all the way to the convention. In fact I think a brokered convention is the most likely senerio. Even should Mrs. Clinton win every one of the remaining contests by a margin of 10 it still would not be enough to over take Obama. And I don't think she'll do that well in North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana. Obama should win most if not all those states. Meanwhile I really don't think Obama can win in Pennslyvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, or Pueto Rico. That keeps things dead set till the convention in August and with support running high in a very very close race I doubt either one will drop out. So that leaves us with a brokered convention and some very angry supporters that are going to feel jipped.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-24 @ 10:10:11
Technically the convention will not be "brokered", while it could possibly be contested. As there are only two viable candidates, one will have a majority of votes on the first ballot, so there will be nothing to broker. I think it more likely that between May 7 and late June the Superdelegates weigh in and the nominee will be determined. As far as states' (& territory) preferences, I agree. An Obama sweep of N.Carolina & Indiana on May 6 would start the supers declaring for him. Last Edit: 2008-03-24 @ 10:10:33

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-24 @ 19:44:26
The nominee will be chosen in late June. It won't go to the convention. There will be no new information after the primary season ends and a final delegate count can be established. I expect at that time that the people's choice will win the nomination. It is highly unlikely that Hillary Clinton can pull the delegates or votes to win at this juncture -- an assessment shared by her topmost aides who give her a 10% chance of winning the nomination. As I said on my map, for all practical purposes it has already been decided.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-24 @ 23:27:48
Well we'll just have to see what those super delegates do. I find it an interesting concept, considering that the GOP has not super delegates. Personally I prefer it that way but it does add an interesting dynamic to the race. It would thus seem at this point then by what I am hearing that the race is over for Hillary. I'd like to believe that but something about the Clintons keeps me on gaurd. As a Republican I've learned never to underestimate the Clinton machine, I hope Obama has not.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-26 @ 02:24:17
He hasn't. I think at this point Hillary is hoping for the Ted Kennedy 1980 Hail Mary play. The problem is, of course, that it didn't work for him either.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-26 @ 14:06:30
Well if Hillary loses the nomination like kennedy you better hope that she doesnt snub him the way kennedy did Carter in 1980 as obama will need most of her voters to win in the fall and many polls out show at least 20% of her voters moving to Mc Cain if she loses myself included, So we shall see what a great uniter this pup is.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-26 @ 23:33:37
After the great divider Hillary he will have his work cut out for him.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-26 @ 23:56:47
It is 28% now at Gallup, with 19% of Obama supporters saying the same. A house divided against itself can't stand. Your party's ability to throw away its good fortunes is astounding. Maybe Bush was right when he called you guys the 'defeatists' =P Last Edit: 2008-03-26 @ 23:57:10

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-27 @ 00:46:35
Perhaps. I want to be near the top of that 28% Well if Hillary loses I guess I can hope for a Mc Cain grassroots from other Hill supporters.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-27 @ 01:00:03
As I've watched Richardson endorse Obama, the media turn on Hillary, and Bill struggling to garner support I am amazed at the collapse of the Clinton machine. I never thought it possible. Maybe Democrats are as tired of the Clintons as Republicans are of Bushs. You know the whole dynasty thing. In the end it seems like Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee. But it also doesn't look like Hillary is going to give up without a fight. She'll take this thing to the convention I think. We'll see what the next few weeks bring.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-27 @ 01:16:55
Yes we will ! Well if she doesnt get nominated I hope she destroys it for Obama. gives it to old man rino big mc. Wait until he gets threw with the kid.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-27 @ 04:34:29
I disagree, CR. If it is painfully apparent in June, after Puerto Rico, that she doesn't have the delegates or votes or some sort of argument then she won't be allowed to take it to the convention. Who will stop her? Probably around 150-250 or so self-interested super-delegates that don't want to give McCain another 2 and a half months of free campaigning just because of Hillary's (at that time) 3% or less chance of winning the nomination. Of course if Hillary captures the popular vote or has some legitimate argument for staying in, then that 3% might become something more like 35-45%. But a simple view on the part of her supporters that she is entitled to the nomination because of her last name will NOT be sufficient. Because in the end, a few hundred superdelegates can easily push either one of them over the top in June. If he gets to 2025 or higher, she will have no choice but to concede. Same if it goes the other way. The party WILL throw the Clintons overboard in order to salvage their chances at the election. I'm not so sure they're willing to throw the Black voting bloc overboard, though. What is important to keep in mind is that Obama had a large number of super delegates ready to line up for him if she lost Ohio and Texas and tried to carry the campaign on despite those losses. This one isn't likely to end on the convention floor. Last Edit: 2008-03-27 @ 04:40:51

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-27 @ 04:39:29
I expect operation 'throw overboard' would also be engaged if she lost Pennsylvania and tried to continue or if she loses a few in a row and keeps going.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-27 @ 17:11:01
Well that may be the case. The thing is I just don't see either candidate having enough to win. If it remains close as I think it will, with a 150 or less delegates separating Hillary and Obama then I think it goes to the convention as I'm not sure all the super delegates will have decided by the end of June. A loose in Pennslyvania would be the end of her I agree. But I think she'll win there as she did in Ohio, with about 55-57%. Obama will then win Indiana and North Carolina. She'll go on to win Kentucky and West Virginia while Obama picks up Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Hillary takes Peuto Rico. Even though Obama leads slightly in both pledge delegates and the popular vote, due to both Michigan and Florida I think Hillary will fight on. She'd have to win the next 10 races with over 65% to over take him in delegates. But I do think she'll enough to keep him from 2025. That does leave it up to the Super Delegates who could take till July or the convention to decided on a candidate. Over all I think we are looking at mid to late summer before Hillary is gone. And she'll have to be forced out of this race.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-27 @ 18:25:36
It would seem her message is: 'You can't win without me, because I won't let you'. Operation Chaos continues :P

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-27 @ 23:04:37
LOL, Operation Chaos rolls on!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-28 @ 10:37:13
Obama will likely be within 150 of the magic number by June 3. He'll need less than half of the undecided supers to choose him in order to clinch. Hillary won't be able to stop them from doing so.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-28 @ 15:38:47
June is looking to be a very interesting month and I am quiet interested in what the super delegates decided to do. Either way though I think that Hillary is going to loose the nomination. Last Edit: 2008-03-28 @ 15:39:11

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-29 @ 15:31:19
Hillary will certainly need a very compelling case to keep Obama from getting to 2025 by August. That almost certainly means winning almost all the remaining contests or convincingly passing Obama in the popular count. Neither seems overwhelmingly likely.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-29 @ 20:19:57
That or somehow she gets Michigan and Florida to count in some way and can just barely grab the popular vote. If she has that then she could try to sway a number of the super delegates. But if I'm not mistaken those delegates can change their minds and support at anytime up to when they have to cast their ballots at the convention. Wild.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-30 @ 23:02:34
That is quite true. If Pelosi and Dean are any indications, I believe the party establishment will endorse the people's choice. Whomever that ends up being. Hillary must obtain more super delegates than Obama to win the nomination -- even with Michigan and Florida. You can take that to the bank.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-02 @ 00:29:51
I'm going to make an update to my Democratic primary map. Please see the new one as I'm shutting this one down.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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