Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-09 Version:36

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	41
Romney	8
Thompson	0
Huckabee	3
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	19
Romney	2
Thompson	0
Huckabee	1
Other	0
Tossup	30

Analysis

I want to give Kansas to McCain very badly, but I'm erring on the side of caution. I try not to be too optimistic, otherwise you usually get let down. Whoever wins, I doubt they will get >50% because of the Ronulans coming out for Paul, but I could be wrong.

I honestly have no idea how Louisiana will turn out, I heard Huckabee say he wasn't going to campaign there (something about how they award delegates), so I guess that makes it a "beauty contest". Although I don't think McCain would win a real beauty contest (or Huckabee for that matter), he does have far better name recognition, momentum, and a sense of inevitability, all these things play well in primaries more than they do in caucuses (those who attend caucuses are usually well versed in politics, no normal person would take 2-4 hours out of their Saturday to listen about how "great" all the candidates are, no offense to anyone here who attended a caucus...we both know you aren't normal).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-09 @ 15:36:43
Kansas results: with 65% reporting Huckabee is ahead with 61% of the vote. Congressional District 3 and 4 have only reported one or two pricincts, these could potentially favor McCain (urban-esque areas), it's highly (HIGHLY) unlikely he will pull ahead of Huck, but it could shrink Huckabee's lead a bit. With Huckabee's win here, he's just raised the chances he will become the VP. I'm really liking the race post-Romney, McCain and Huckabee have been my two favorite candidates from the start. Back in December--when it looked like McCain was gone--I switched to Huckabee, then when McCain came back I switched back. A McCain-Huckabee ticket, while it would be my favorite ticket, does nothing to bring in fiscal conservatives or immigration hard-liners. Last Edit: 2008-02-09 @ 15:50:02

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-10 @ 09:24:24
Dang, Louisiana was close. No one got over 50% so the delegates go to the convention unpledged. I told you earlier this race could still go in a number of directions. For a guy who has little to no money and to my knowledge didn't even campaign in Louisiana, Huckabee sure can move people to go out and vote. If there is low turnout in the coming primaries and caucuses, Huckabee's base of motivated evangelicals (who are very likely to turn out) could come through for him in a number of other states. I only wonder how long he will stay in, if he stays till the end, he could still sweep the southern states later in the year, including mine. It will be interesting to watch Virginia, that will be a big test for Huckabee, though he can't win the nomination, a win in Virginia would show McCain he would add strength to the ticket. I still say Huckabee is a bad choice for VP, but who knows. I just wonder how different this race would have been had Huckabee won South Carolina.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-12 @ 12:53:31
I've got the flu, I barely managed to get out of bed to type this, but I couldn't stand laying there for another minute--I've been there for almost 24 hours except to use the bathroom. On top of this, my water froze up, so I've been dehydrated awful, it's been a bad day to say the least. Now, to the potomac primary! I expect McCain to sweep all three states this evening. The only one that has the potential to be close is Virginia, my prediction: Low Turnout favors Huckabee, High Turnout favors McCain. Huckabee's "base" isn't particularly large but they are quiet fanatical and will likely turnout no matter what. A lot of independents will likely swing to Obama, which could potentially make Virginia a tight race for the GOP, but I could be completely wrong.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-13 @ 14:54:14
Some interesting, and odd exit poll data: Huckabee won those who strongly approve of the Iraq war. Huckabee 48% to McCain 46% Huckabee won those who cited illegal immigration as their top issue, which is odd since Huckabee and McCain have very similar stances on immigration. Biggest surprise: McCain won Republicans while Huckabee won independents! "Your feelings if McCain wins nomination" 46% Very Satisfied 31% Somewhat Satisfied 13% Somewhat Dissatisfied 9% Very Dissatisfied "Listen to Conservative talk Radio" Yes(59%)- Huckabee 45% McCain 43% No(40%)- McCain 57% Huckabee 36%

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	48/56	38/56	86/112	76.8%	2	169	591	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	7/52	36/104	34.6%	2	-	124	T	231
2010 Senate	32/37	24/37	56/74	75.7%	5	1	116	T	456
2008 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%	54	131	247	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	4	96	172	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	140	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	24/52	66/104	63.5%	22	-	26	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	42/49	19/49	61/98	62.2%	39	-	9	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	284/346	176/346	460/692	66.5%

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