Comments History
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hideVersion: 36
I want to give Kansas to McCain very badly, but I'm erring on the side of caution. I try not to be too optimistic, otherwise you usually get let down. Whoever wins, I doubt they will get >50% because of the Ronulans coming out for Paul, but I could be wrong.
I honestly have no idea how Louisiana will turn out, I heard Huckabee say he wasn't going to campaign there (something about how they award delegates), so I guess that makes it a "beauty contest". Although I don't think McCain would win a real beauty contest (or Huckabee for that matter), he does have far better name recognition, momentum, and a sense of inevitability, all these things play well in primaries more than they do in caucuses (those who attend caucuses are usually well versed in politics, no normal person would take 2-4 hours out of their Saturday to listen about how "great" all the candidates are, no offense to anyone here who attended a caucus...we both know you aren't normal).
Version: 34
Well, Romney has "suspended" his campaign.
So it now comes down to Huckabee and McCain.
There is another possibility, though I find it unlikely, that Huckabee could drop out. Many are pressuring him to do so.
Version: 32
What's up with WV?
Version: 29
Hard fought Feb 5th states:
California, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee.
McCain essentially has the North East wrapped up with Giuliani's endorsement, Romney will take the interior west caucus states, Huckabee will take his home state of Arkansas and will be competing heavily for Missouri and the South.
Version: 27
My guess is Romney will be focusing his resources on Feb5th states that hold caucuses instead of primaries, caucuses tend to draw more hardened party veterans that usually favor Romney, the only one I'm unsure of is Minnesota. Other than that, Romney will probably pour resources into California to at least split it's delegates with McCain.
McCain, OTOH, will probably find strength in the North East, and perhaps the Midwest and South (depending on where Huckabee's support goes). It seems, from Florida data, that most of Huckabee's supporters in Florida would have voted for McCain had Huckabee not been a contender, so this may help McCain in the midwest and south if Huckabee's support flees.
If Romney isn't out after Feb5th, Texas and Ohio will seal the deal for McCain.
Version: 25
Jan 29th: McCain wins Florida.
Feb 5th: Romney wins a few western states and Massachusetts, Huckabee takes several Southern States, McCain takes the rest, Romney either drops out or his support fades greatly. Huckabee and McCain go on. Paul also sticks around, taking 5-10% from most states, with a few exceptions where he takes more.
Post-Feb 5th: McCain wins a slew of highly contested states (Kansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, etc). After McCain wins Texas and Ohio, it's all but over for Huckabee. I suspect Huckabee's made VP if this happens.
Version: 24
This, of course, all hinges on McCain winning Florida.
Version: 23
Best case scenario for McCain, mostly to try to clean the compiled projection map of ties...for now lol...until CR nullifies me... ;-P
Mostly a Huckabee vs McCain map, after McCain wins Ohio and Texas Huckabee concedes. Paul and Hunter stick it out till the end.
Version: 22
I need to see some SC polls before I can make a real prediction, so this is completely speculation.
So there are two questions in my mind:
First, who is Romney going to take votes from? Will Romney further split the conservative vote in SC and allow the moderate McCain to keep his lead comprised of moderates and veterans...or will McCain supporters jump ship once again?
Second, supposing McCain can come through in SC, how does this effect Florida? Will McCain and Giuliani split the moderate vote, allowing the conservative alternative (Romney) to come through...or will McCain's coalition of moderates, independents, and veterans, come through for him?
I need polls to confirm any of this speculation, and it's definitely a shaky theory, but possible.
The map reflects my hopes, rather than any firm data.
Version: 21
Supposing for a moment, that CR is right, that McCain and Huckabee are simply riding on the backs of the MSM, independents, and moderate Republicans and won't be able to compete in the closed caucuses to come...and supposing this race does come down to a race between Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani; this is what I think it would look like.
Romney wins Nevada, Thompson wins South Carolina; with no clear Conservative challenger Giuliani wins Hawaii, Florida and Maine and wins fairly big on Feb5th, followed with wins in Ohio and Texas Giuliani is then crowned King. Romney winning in Michigan, as I've said before, really is great for Giuliani. Unless McCain can make a second comeback (I'm not sure where he would do this), then Giuliani has no real challenger for the moderates' votes. The other candidates would compete for the conservatives' votes leaving Giuliani with the larger share of voters in Florida.
I was really hoping for a McCain win in Michigan, but I suspected this might happen. Things are definitely looking up for Giuliani though. I do like Giuliani, but I fear that he simply can't win this November, I feel McCain was the only candidate with any hope of pulling that off, I could be wrong but we'll see.
Version: 19
A possible Giuliani-win scenario, to make CR happy... ;-)
Scratch that. ^^
Version: 18
Moved Michigan to McCain >20%, looks like it's going to be a close one.
Version: 16
Turns out I had nothing to worry about with New Hampshire! McCain won easily, looks like those independents stuck with their first love! I think this has essentially secured Michigan for McCain, of course anything can happen, but until that "anything" happens I feel it's secured. I almost set MI to McCain >30%, but I'll leave it at 20% for now, may have to end up changing it though.
Version: 15
I had to break the tie so the compiled prediction maps would give Florida to Huckabee! In your face CR!!!! ;P
Version: 14
Moved NH down a notch for McCain, a lot of those independents have moved to Obama. I'm very worried about NH, it's going to be a close one. This may be my first wrongly predicted state.
Version: 13
One state at a time, baby.
Version: 11
I like McCain a lot, he was my first choice going into this thing, but I just don't see a way he can win. Giuliani will be a big block for him. The only places McCain will be able to win is in states with high numbers of independent voters.
Huckabee is my second choice, I disagree with him a lot but I think he can win, obviously a lot of people disagree with me, but y'know whatever. ;-)
If McCain can counter Romney in NH and MI he would then go on to compete primarily for Giuliani's support base. This would allow Huckabee to come through in Florida giving him a chance on Super Tuesday. If Romney wins NH, or even gains a close second he will be big trouble for Huckabee and I really have no idea how it would turn out, but it would obviously help Giuliani.
Huckabee and McCain will hold hands and skip together through the first few states, but coming into South Carolina and Nevada, I expect them to turn on each other.
As I've said before South Carolina will be very important, whoever wins South Carolina will probably take the nomination as long as they win by a big enough margin, but if they win by a small margin I expect Giuliani to win the nomination.
I expect McCain to stick around till the end.
Obviously there are a lot of variables and the dominoes would have to fall perfectly for this to happen, but I can hope can't I?
Version: 10
Best Case Scenario for Giuliani.
The early voting states fracture and entering Super Tuesday there is no clear front runner. Huckabee and Romney cancel each other out in many of the larger states, likewise McCain and Giuliani cancel each other out in the the smaller states.
Giuliani secures the North East and Pacific Coast, Huckabee limps by in the south and near west. Romney drops out, McCain sticks it out as he did in 2000, this helps Huckabee and hurts Giuilani, allowing Huckabee to stay competitive. Huckabee keeps trucking, if only to secure a VP spot.
It's almost Jan 3rd!!!!!!!!!!!!!! *Jumps up and down*
Version: 9
This map assumes that after poor showings in South Carolina, everyone except Huckabee, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani drop out.
South Carolina will be very important as it was in 2000.
Version: 8
Romney is really the only candidate with the power to come out of Super Tuesday the clear winner, all the other candidates will still have to duke it out after Feb 5th, but Romney can end it all there.
Version: 7
This is more hope than anything, but it could happen.
Huckabee, McCain and Romney each win a couple states pre-Feb 5th.
Post-Feb 5th there is still no clear winner, Romney and Thompson drop out and Giuliani, Huckabee, and McCain keep trucking. Giuliani later drops out after poor showings everywhere, McCain and Huckabee each take several states, this would likely result in a Huckabee/McCain ticket. Which I would be quite happy with.
*Pets ConservRep*
Version: 6
Just a possible McCain scenario.
Huckabee takes Iowa, McCain takes New Hampshire & Michigan, Romney barely squeaks by in Wyoming and Nevada(keeping him in the game), Huckabee wins South Carolina, McCain wins Hawaii, Huckabee wins Florida (barely), and McCain wins Maine.
Super Tuesday is split between McCain and Huckabee with Giuliani taking New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut; Thompson barely takes his home state; Romney wins Utah and Massachusetts.
Giuliani drops out and endorses McCain, Thompson and Romney are very much wild cards but in this scenario we'll say Thompson drops out and endorses Huckabee but Romney drops out and endorses McCain. McCain wins then takes most of the latter states, with a few exceptions but it is still very close.
I suspect this would result in a McCain/Huckabee ticket.
Version: 5
Rolling the Dice
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I gave each of the top candidates plus Paul a number 1-6, rolled a die and awarded the state accordingly. I then rolled the die for each state to determine the percentage, I counted a one or a two as 20%, 3= 30%, 4=40%, etc, so 60% is the best you can get, I thought that was appropriate.
Obviously my die is not trustworthy, but this does illustrate one thing: dice are obviously not Republicans, as they show no knowledge of the race.
Version: 4
This one goes out to ConservRep. ;-)
Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins NH splitting the conservative vote, thus Giuliani wins MI, Romney wins WY, Giuliani wins NV, Huckabee wins SC, Giuliani wins Hawaii, Florida, and Maine leaving Super Tuesday wide open for Giuliani.
Version: 3
This is the second of the three scenarios.
Again, the four main players at this point are:
Huckabee
Giuliani
Romney
McCain
Iowa: Huckabee wins Iowa and the media coverage propels him higher in the polls.
New Hampshire: Romney's campaign is crippled by the huge loss in Iowa. Romney's lead becomes smaller but he is still able to carry the state. Huckabee comes in second in New Hampshire which keeps him in the running going into Michigan.
Michigan: Huckabee wins, barely.
Nevada: Huckabee's momentum helps him pull a slim win in this state.
South Carolina: Huckabee already leads the polls in this state couple that with his momentum from the earlier wins and he easily wins the state.
This momentum propels him to a win in Florida, giving him the edge he needs going into Super Tuesday.
I expect most candidates will drop out before Super Tuesday, except for Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, and maybe Thompson. Thompson, McCain, and Romney will probably drop out after Super Tuesday. I don't expect Thompson to even win his home state.
Version: 2
I've decided to go ahead and give a prediction.
There are several scenarios I can think of, but three main ones, I'll be doing the other two over the coming days.
This first scenario is probably the most likely.
I think the first three states are the most important, and there are four main players at this point I think:
Huckabee
Giuliani
Romney
McCain (you laugh now, but I'll explain later why I think he is still important)
Huckabee and Romney will be fighting over the conservatives' votes.
Giuliani and McCain will be fighting over the moderates' votes (this is why McCain is still an important factor).
As I said there are three main scenarios, and they all depend on those first three states.
Iowa: Huckabee, at this point, is almost a shoo-win; the media coverage of Huckabee that would ensue would have a big impact on the other states, what impact that will be? I'm not sure.
New Hampshire and Michigan: The single most important state is New Hampshire, I believe. I don't see Huckabee winning it in any of the three scenarios, however there are other possibilities. The first, and most likely is what is captured above; Romney wins and is propelled into a win in Michigan. Second, Huckabee wins a second place in New Hampshire and is able to grab Michigan. Third scenario, Huckabee pulls so many votes from Romney that McCain wins New Hampshire, the effect this would have on Michigan--I'm not sure, but I know it wouldn't help Giuliani.
If Romney wins Michigan it will split the Conservatives between Romney and Huckabee, giving the lead to Giuiliani in many states. If Huckabee grabs Michigan, he could start a domino effect in which he is able to steal Florida from Giuliani.
So at this point, I think the best thing that could happen for Giluiani is for Huckabee to win Iowa, and Romney to win New Hampshire and Michigan; Florida would then almost certainly be secured for Giuliani giving him the edge leading into Feb 5th.
Version: 1
This is all I'm doing for now, lol. I'll update later this month.
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