Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-25 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	22
Romney	19
Thompson	0
Huckabee	4
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	4
Romney	6
Thompson	0
Huckabee	3
Other	0
Tossup	32

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
32	27	5

Analysis

I think that Mitt's deep pockets will allow him to out pace McCain in states like Ohio, California, Illinios, etc. But at the end of the day, Giuliani's supporters will go for McCain and McCain will end up with the nomination.

Member Comments

By: Haners (R-CO) 2008-03-04 @ 19:33:35
I think I stink at this prediction thing!

By: Lord Bitememan (R-MI) 2008-03-04 @ 22:19:53
Heh, it wasn't that bad for a 1 prediction map. If you look at the guys who top the charts on accuracy, they tend to leave states at uncommitted until the day or two before the contests, then with all the good polling data update their map to reflect possible outcome. You did the one shot, one kill method and while it might not have panned out, it's substantially more honest a method of doing this.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	48/56	24/56	72/112	64.3%	1	468	837	T	1,505
2008 Rep Primary	27/49	5/49	32/98	32.7%	1	-	118	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	1/3	4/6	66.7%	1	109	102	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	28/33	12/33	40/66	60.6%	2	70	380	T	465
2006 Governor	31/36	7/36	38/72	52.8%	1	147	268	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	137/177	49/177	186/354	52.5%

Links

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