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Date of Prediction: 2012-06-18 Version:7

Prediction Map
Nik Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Nik Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem201
 
Rep337
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem178
 
Rep295
 
Ind0
 
Tos65
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-12-1-158172201-158
Rep+12+1+158000222179+158
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Changes favoring Obama: ME-2 from GOP to Dem. ID and WY from R>70 to R<60. IN from R>60 to R>50. VA from solid to leans GOP. NV and NH from leans GOP to toss-ups. MA from leans to solid Dem.

No changes favoring Romney. Once again, these adjustments are correcting a bit of wishful thinking, rather than a change in the actual direction of the race. In reality, the race continues to trend in Romney's direction.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T
Aggregate Predictions 481/561 309/561 790/1122 70.4% pie


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