Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-06-20 Version:12

Prediction Map
Ernest Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Ernest Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	243
Rep	180
Ind	0
Tos	115

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Based on the Arizona and Colorado polls PPP released Tuesday, I'm bumping Arizona from Strong R to Lean R and Colorado from 40% D to 50% D.

If I could trust the Elway poll of Washington, I'd consider moving Washington from Strong D to Lean D, but they have no track record I know of for me to judge the value of their poll.

Based on the today's Rasmussen poll of Montana, I'm shifting Montana from Strong R to Lean R since it looks like Romney will not get a double digit margin there. It's still a very safe state for Romney, just not one that he will landslide.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	48	1	314	T
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%	22	0	2	T
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T
2012 Rep Primary	36/52	13/52	49/104	47.1%	18	-	75	T
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	2	3	21	T
2010 Governor	33/37	29/37	62/74	83.8%	1	3	17	T
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	137	92	T
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	79	1	100	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	28/33	61/66	92.4%	17	2	2
2006 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	16	2	6	T
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	47	1	66	T
Aggregate Predictions	375/409	282/409	657/818	80.3%