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 Date of Prediction: 2012-08-19 Version:44

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem281
 
Rep257
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep205
 
Ind0
 
Tos76
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-5-1-78242281-78
Rep+5+1+78000222179+78
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Obama-D margin of victory over 20 percent.
(DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,NY-29,DE-3,MD-10,and MA-11)=63ev
Obama-D margin of victory between 15-20 percent.
(CA-55,RI-4,IL-20,ME-4,and WA-12)=95ev(158ev)
Obama-D margin of victory between 10-15 percent.
(NJ-14,CT-7,NM-5,MN-10,and OR-7)=43ev(201ev)
Obama-D margin of victory between 5-10 percent.
(MI-16,PA-20,NV-6,WI-10,and NH-4)=56ev(257ev)
Romney-R margin of victory over 20 percent.
(UT-6,OK-7,WY-3,ID-4,AL-9,AK-3,AR-6,and KS-6)=44ev
Romney-R margin of victory between 15-20 percent.
(WV-5,LA-8,NE-5,MS-6,and KY-8)=32ev(76ev)
Romney-R margin of victory between 10-15 percent.
(ND-3,TX-38,SD-3,TN-11,and IN-11)=66ev(142ev)
Romney-R margin of victory between 5-10 percent.
(GA-16,AZ-11,MT-3,SC-9,and MO-10)=49ev(191ev)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-19 @ 10:30:49 prediction Map
The Tossup Races are OH-18,IA-6,CO-9,VA-13,FL-29,and NC-15.
Obama-D wins OH-18=275ev
Romney-R wins NC-15=206ev
Obama-D guide to victory without FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13 is NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,CO-9,and WI-10.
Obama-D is favored to win NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,and PA-20=237ev.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-19 @ 11:38:36 prediction Map
NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,CO-9,and WI-10=35ev.
If Obama-D wins all of those states-he is immunized from winning FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13.
If Romney-R wins NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,CO-9,and WI-10=he is at 241ev without FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13.
Romney-R must win FL-29 or he must win OH-18 and VA-13.
Obama-D wins NV-6 =243ev
Romney-R now has to win FL-29 plus the remaining battleground states.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-19 @ 13:26:57 prediction Map
Among FL-29 and OH-18,which of these two battleground states Obama-D is likely to win?
Obama-D is favored to win the Gore/Kerry states minus IA-6 and WI-10 due to Ryan's regional advantage. Looking at the Midwestern States-
IL-20(Strong Obama-D)
ND-3,SD-3,NE-5,and KS-6=17ev(Strong Romney-R).
MI-16 and MN-10=(Lean Obama-D)26ev(46ev)
IN-11 and MO-10=(Lean Romney-R)21ev(38ev)
OH-18,WI-10,and IA-6 are tossup states. (Romney-R narrowly wins WI-10 and IA-6)=54ev
Obama-D is favored to recieve 241ev(including NH-4,PA-20,MI-16,OR-7,MN-10,and NM-5). He is likely to win NV-6,CO-9,and VA-13=269ev=all he needs is NE-2CD.
Obama-D wins NV-6,CO-9,and OH-18=274ev.
Obama-D wins FL-29= 270ev.
Romney-R wins the Dole/McCain States minus CO-9 and VA-13= 206ev plus WI-10 and IA-6=222ev.
Romney-R needs to win FL-29,OH-18,and NV-6 to win. or FL-29 and OH-18 to earn an electoral college tie. Obama-D is likely to win NV-6. That leaves FL-29 and/or OH-18 in play.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-19 @ 21:26:24 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election.
Democrats lose NE but gain ME.
Looking at the battleground US Senate Races.
Democrats hold onto FL(Obama-D coattails and Ryan-R selection helps Nelson-D),MO(recent comment Akin-R made legitimate rape victims rarely gets pregnant- should be played repeatedly on tv and radio by the McCaskill-D campaign.),MT(Tester-D has crossover appeal.), ND(Berg-R is too unpopular and Heitkamp-D has crossover appeal.), VA(Kaine-D has crossover appeal), and WI(Thompson-R takes the election for granted.)
Democrats pick up.
MA(Warren-D benefits from Obama-D coattails.)
NV(Berkley-D benefits from Obama-D coattails.)
IN(Donnelly-D has crossover appeal- Mourdock-R is unpopular with Moderates.)
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-20 @ 05:30:17 prediction Map
Well, what you listed as senate is DEM dream result, and it could happen maybe 20% for perfect storm....more likely is multi seat loss with some surprises...I am interested in seeing how the comment in Missouri plays out.....might solidfy independent female vote for Claire...will it be enough?
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-20 @ 06:56:16 prediction Map
Regarding the US Senate.
The battleground states the Republicans are likely to win is WI(Thompson-R is a highly respected former statewide elected official- Moderate to Conservative Republican Governor. Thompson-R benefits from Ryan-R being on the Vice Presidential ticket. Thompson-R is more likely to appeal to the Obama/Walker voters .Baldwin-D base or ceiling will be a 47 percent- the same percent Feingold received in 2010.
NV(Same situation as in WI, Heller-R is a generic Moderate to Conservative Republican statewide elected official and Berkley-D is a liberal Democratic US House member from Las Vegas. Heller-R appeals to the Obama/Reid/Sandoval voters.
MT(Unlike Mourdock-IN,Akin-MO,and Berg-ND, Rehberg-R Is not that extreme or crazy.
IN,MO,and ND are a pure Tossup. Democrats narrowly win FL,VA,and MA.
Regarding the US Presidential Election.
Obama-D wins Kerry States minus WI-10-which has a 50-50 chance of going Republican due to WI native Ryan-R being on the ticket. 236ev. Obama-D wins the Democratic Leaning battleground southwestern states(NM-5 and NV-6)=247ev. Obama-D's 270ev is FL-29(276ev), OH-18 and IA-6(271ev), or VA-13,CO-9,and IA-6(275ev).
Obama-D wins NM-5,MN-10,and OR-7=201ev
Add (MI-16,PA-20,OH-18,and FL-29)=83ev(284ev)
Obama-D is likely to win MI-16 and PA-20 but he could lose either OH-18 or FL-29.
Obama-D will win the non Midwestern battleground states-NH-4,NV-6,CO-9,VA-13 and NC-15. (284ev)
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-20 @ 18:05:34 prediction Map
The Akin comments could give Baldwin(D-WI) and Berkley(D-NV) ammunition against their GOP opponents Thompson(R-WI) and Heller(R-NV). Will Thompson(WI) and Heller(NV) distance themselves from Akin and his hardcore supporters- even call for Akin to drop out of the race or will they keep their mouth shut.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-20 @ 18:29:13 prediction Map
Republicans in Missouri should replace Akin with Ashcroft.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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