Date of Prediction: 2024-05-09 Version:13
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Analysis
While Nikki Haley's vote share has been surprisingly resilient, especially in the recent Indiana primary, one should not assume that all these protest voters will vote for President Joe Biden. Some may, though a large majority will come home to Donald Trump, I am sure. This is also true on the Democratic side with those protest voting against Pres. Biden. Primary voters are the most engaged people, and they are not likely to stay home come the general election. Regarding Mr. Trump's trials, as I mentioned before, I do not think these will have much of an impact, especially since they seem very unlikely to conclude by November. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Maryland, Trump: 82%, Haley: 13%. In Nebraska, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In West Virginia, Trump: 88%, Haley: 9%. In Kentucky, Trump: 84%, Haley: 13%. In Oregon, Trump: 81%, Haley: 13%. In Montana, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In New Jersey, Trump: 83%, Haley: 8%. In New Mexico, Trump: 82%, Haley: 9%. In South Dakota, Trump: 86%, Haley: 10%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 83%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 2,043, Haley: 98, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3
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