PredictionsMock2024 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - WinstonOBoogie (D-ON) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2024-05-09 Version:13

Prediction Map
WinstonOBoogie MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
WinstonOBoogie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
DeSantis0
 
Trump51
 
Haley1
 
Christie0
 
Ramaswamy0
 
Hutchinson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
DeSantis0
 
Trump51
 
Haley0
 
Christie0
 
Ramaswamy0
 
Hutchinson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup1
 

Analysis

While Nikki Haley's vote share has been surprisingly resilient, especially in the recent Indiana primary, one should not assume that all these protest voters will vote for President Joe Biden. Some may, though a large majority will come home to Donald Trump, I am sure. This is also true on the Democratic side with those protest voting against Pres. Biden. Primary voters are the most engaged people, and they are not likely to stay home come the general election. Regarding Mr. Trump's trials, as I mentioned before, I do not think these will have much of an impact, especially since they seem very unlikely to conclude by November. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Maryland, Trump: 82%, Haley: 13%. In Nebraska, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In West Virginia, Trump: 88%, Haley: 9%. In Kentucky, Trump: 84%, Haley: 13%. In Oregon, Trump: 81%, Haley: 13%. In Montana, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In New Jersey, Trump: 83%, Haley: 8%. In New Mexico, Trump: 82%, Haley: 9%. In South Dakota, Trump: 86%, Haley: 10%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 83%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 2,043, Haley: 98, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 251
P 2023 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 2 1T115
P 2022 Senate 35/35 29/35 64/70 91.4% pie 23 1 7T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 39 1 11T272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 11 48T118
P 2020 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 14 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 14 4 137T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 4 35T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 26/35 58/70 82.9% pie 9 1 15T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 12 3 6T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 13 1 87T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 21/34 53/68 77.9% pie 11 1 16T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 6 1 119T279
Aggregate Predictions 327/354 245/354 572/708 80.8% pie


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