MT-this one is tightening at the last second so its only leans now.

MO-McCaskill seems to be riding a small wave so I'm being bold with a lean Dem here.

NJ & MD- These are both close but they have been for a while with little change so I'm not as convinced that these are actually going to be takeovers.

VA-Webb appears to finally be moving up but the polls here have been back and forth for a week. I think the winner gets decided by a few hundred votes. Its gonna be the closest of them all.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on analysis on RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, CO-7, FL-16, IN-8, OH-18, PA-10, PA-7, TX-22 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: IA-1, NC-11, NM-1, NY-24, (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: CT-4, CT-5, FL-13, FL-22, IN-2, IN-9, NH-2, NY-20, OH-15, PA-6, WI-8

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2, ID-1, IL-6, KY-3, NY-26, OH-1, OH-2, PA-8, WA-8,

Likely Rep. Holds: CA-4, CO-4, KY-4, MN-1, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, NY-29, NY-19, WY-AL

Garanteed Rep. Holds: CA-50, NE-1, NE-3, NJ-7, NY-25, VA-2, PA-4

Final result: D-226 R-209

MT-this one is tightening at the last second so its only leans now.

MO-McCaskill seems to be riding a small wave so I'm being bold with a lean Dem here.

NJ & MD- These are both close but they have been for a while with little change so I'm not as convinced that these are actually going to be takeovers.

VA-Webb appears to finally be moving up but the polls here have been back and forth for a week. I think the winner gets decided by a few hundred votes. Its gonna be the closest of them all.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on analysis on RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, CO-7, FL-16, IN-8, OH-18, PA-10, PA-7, TX-22 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: IA-1, NC-11, NM-1, NY-24, (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: CT-4, CT-5, FL-13, FL-22, IN-2, IN-9, NH-2, NY-20, OH-15, PA-6, WI-8

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2, ID-1, IL-6, KY-3, NY-26, OH-1, OH-2, PA-8, WA-8,

Likely Rep. Holds: CA-4, CO-4, KY-4, MN-1, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, NY-29, NY-19, WY-AL

Garanteed Rep. Holds: CA-50, NE-1, NE-3, NJ-7, NY-25, VA-2, PA-4

Final result: D-226 R-209

TN-I think Ford is done. He might have had a shot but he took the offense over the top.

VA-Similar situation here. Allen went to far and its backfiring. Webb's been gaining momentum over the past two weeks. Still anyone's game though.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on analysis on RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, T-22, FL-16, IN-8, PA-10, PA-7, CO-7, & OH-18 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: NY-26, NY-24, IA-1, NC-11, NM-1 (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: OH-15, PA-6, IN-9, CT-4, WA-8, NH-2

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, IN-2, IL-6, MN-6, WY-AL, CT-2, CT-5, OH-1, OH-2, FL-13, FL-22, WI-8, NY-20, PA-8, KY-3

Likely Rep. Holds: ID-1, CO-4, KY-4, CA-11, NY-29, NY-19, PA-4, NV-2, NV-3, MN-1, CA-4

Garanteed Rep. Holds: NY-25, VA-2, CA-50, NJ-7, NE-1, NE-3

Final result: D-222 R-213

Wow, I am absolutely shocked by the newest polls (today is 10/30) coming out of Virginia. I thought the LA Times poll from last week was just a fluke in a long line of polls with Allen ahead but apparently I was wrong. I still think Allen will win but if Webb keeps up the current numbers I may have to flip this race. I find these polls especially jarring becuase both show Webb at or above 50%. That's something Allen hasn't been able to do in two consecutive polls since June. Also this is the first time Webb has been above 48%. Maybe people actually thought Webb's book was good (LOL).

Tennessee moves to tossup due to the racism charges swirling around the infamous "call me" ad. This will likely mobilize AA voters and may also bring around a bout of "White Guilt." Personally I find the whole thing repulsive, both the ad and the charges of racism.

With some percentage adjustments in safe races all else remains unchanged for me.

I fiddled with some percentages in a couple of races. Changed Tennessee to leans Republican and Virginia to Safe Republican. With only two weeks left I don't think Webb can pull it off. Allen has only been behind in one poll and he's within the margin of error. I think his 2008 chances are shot to shit but he'll remain a Senator. In TN this whole Playboy thing is not going over well for Ford in a socially conservative state even if it does affirm his love for football and girls. Plus, Corker has done some reorganizing that has given his campaign some new breath. In Missouri, things remain unchanged.

Many TV stations in Ohio are refusing to air the most recent add for DeWine sponsored by the Republican Party. The add claims Brown didn't pay some taxes in 1992. The truth is he was late by about two years. Seeing as this ad isn't being shown anywhere though i doubt it will have any affect and all that money is wasted. Kean's corruption campaign agaisnt Menendez seems to have run its course in NJ as Menendez has led in the polls for the last few weeks. Tennessee and Missouri remain tossups although a recent Blunder by Ford may cause him to lose momentum. Virginia is emerging as a much closer race after recent polls but Allen continues to lead in all of them which indicates that the margin of error is in his favor. Until I see a poll with Webb in the lead this race will remain strong or lean Republican. Maryland is becoming a tighter race but there is still a Democratic edge. Everything else seems pretty much decided already but we stil have two weeks left so who knows what will happen.

According to the NY Times the GOP has recently decided to cut its losses everywhere but Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. They also are still holding out hope for New Jersey. In response to this I have moved Ohio and Rhode Island to strongly Democratic and Virginia to strongly Republican. It is clear from the polls that DeWine and Chafee were already struggling and without the support of the national party they will continue to flounder. With Allen already ahead in all polls I've seen this narrower focus should help him hold onto his lead. For now New Jersey, Tennessee, and Missouri will remain the same on my map but they may move to the Republican column in the coming days if this refocus has the desired affect for the GOP. Since Maryland was not mentioned in any of this I have moved it into the strongly Democratic category as well. Without the full attention of the GOP it will be hard for them to overtake a state that is so strongly Democratic, especially in this climate.

LAmont lost his steam after the primary and has been losing ground since so Connecticut is basically in the bag for Lieberman. Menendez seems to be on the rebound in New Jersey but its not a strong lead yet. Other than that I only changed a few percentages that needed updating.

New Jersey is currently going Democratic so I switched back to Democrats holding onto it. However, this race keeps flip flopping so I am leaving it in the Toss up category.

My confidence in Missouri is very very low at this time. It is a complete tossup either way. If the winds in Tennessee and New Jersey continue blowing in the same directions they are now I'll switch them to leans democrat and republican respectively.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 05:02:36

I alphabetized my House districts and did a little switching around. Several things hurting Republicans right now besides Bush and Iraq: #1 Scandals: virtually every state is having some sort of Republican scandal. Its caused a myriad of resignations and put safe Republican districts directly into Democratic hands. #2Voter disgust/Anti-incumbent: This is a combo of the low congressional approval and "scandal spillover." Examples are 50-50 districts or slight Rep districts near or close to scandals like OH-15, FL-13, the PA districts, ect. #3High polling Dems at top of Gov/Sen ticket: Dems are doing well in the Gov. races as well as some Sen races. This will help Dem House candidates in OH, CO, PA, NY, NM, and maybe FL, MN, and AZ. Last Edit: 2006-11-04 @ 05:32:26

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 12:58:47

You really have lost it. Surrender will not prove as popular an option in Iraq as you think it will. Scandals in every state? Bit of hyperbole don't you think? Not to mention the fact that you seem to gloss over scandals like Blagovich, Mollohan, Jefferson, Ried, Jesse jackson Jr., Menendez, and Barak Obama's apparent tise to the same convicted criminal as Blagovich. How do THEY work against the GOP? Voter disgust? Evidently tou have failed to see the washington Post's new poll released this morning. Generic ballot is now 52-46, Bodes well for GOP. Quick libs, get desperate, call the washington poast a bunch of GOP hacks. LOL. I notice you did not include MI, IA, MD, and OR on your list of "high polling dem's at the top of tickets. Including MN in this group is a joke. Although you could have listed KY and that would have been true enough.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-05 @ 16:00:09

Most people in the real world view Iraq as unwinable so I think a phased withdrawl is actually the MOST popular option right now. "Stay the Course" certainly isn't and thats what Bush has been selling at all his stops across the country. Way to kill your chances there dumbass. OK lets list the states with scandals: FL, ID, IL, LA, MT, NV, NJ, OH, PA, TX, VA, WV, WY. Maybe not all the states but I still think 13 is pretty high and I may have missed a few. As for the Dems the only ones having any affect are Blago and Menendez. No one has reported on Mollohan since April, Reid has been swept under the rug, Jackson is running in a district where he took 88% last year, Jefferson will get booted in the primary by another Dem, and Barak Obama is not up for re-election. Blago and Kean are running in states where politics=corruption and both are still ahead in the polls but not by as much as they should be in typically blue states. "Including MN in this group is a joke." apparently you haven't seen the polls showing Klobuchar with a TWENTY POINT LEAD! If thats not high polling I don't know what is.

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 22:12:47

You may want to rethink RI. Latest Mason Dixon has it teid. it would also appear your voter disafection is evaporating. Mason Dixon, Pew, and Galup have the generic balot at 6 pts. ROFL.

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:23:59

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I).

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:26:10

If I could suggest something cm04g, I would switch Missouri and Virginia. Talent appears to have a much better chance than Allen right now.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:18:15

If there is indeed a tie there will likely be joint leadership in the Senate. Even though Cheney is technically the tiebreaker many things depend on two-thirds vote or a minimum of 60 votes. Also, if the Dems have a controlling majority in the House, look for moderates (especially Snowe and Collins in Maine and Chafee in RI if he survivies) to be pressured to jump the aisle and become Democrats. I don't think its likely that moderate Dems will switch sides given the current House projections.

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