Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:7

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	0	+5	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-5	9	1	10	-5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	27	48
Republican	10	40	50
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	32	27

Comments

I don't like the way things are looking in Montana, but I'm going to be bold and say that Democrats win in both Missouri and Virginia. In all honesty, I'm pessimistic about Democrats' chances of winning anywhere that it's close, but we'll see.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 6

But seriously folks, happy Halloween. :)

Version: 5

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE REJECT THE DEMOCRATS EVERYWHERE BECAUSE THEY SEE THAT THE DEMOCRATS ARE SILLY JERKFACES AND NOBODY SHOULD LIKE THEM

TED KENNEDY WILL LOSE BECAUSE NO ONE LIKES HIM IT'S JUST THAT THE GUYS IN MASSACHUSETTS FORGOT

CHAFEE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME THOUGH BECAUSE HE'S NOT NEARLY REPUBLICAN ENOUGH FOR RHODE ISLAND!!!!!!1111

Version: 4

After being unpleasantly surprised in 2004, I'm gonna be healthily pessimistic about the Democrats' chances in light of recent polls in MO and TN and flip them to Tossup Rep.

Version: 3

I just realized I completely forgot to change Rhode Island. That's now fixed.

Version: 2

I had no idea that Kohl and Lieberman were THAT popular. I consistently see them around 60%, so I'm gonna reflect that here.

I recognize that Lieberman also has a primary opponent, but I'm going to assume that Connecticut Democrats aren't THAT dumb that they'd kick out Lieberman in favor of some guy no one knows.

Version: 1

First prediction. The following states are based on my belief of who will win the primary; I'll list what they will become if something else occurs:

Rhode Island:

Chafee wins - lean Rep
Laffey wins - strong Dem

Florida:

Harris wins - strong Dem
Someone else wins - don't know yet

Maryland:

Cardin wins - lean Dem
Mfume wins - tossup Dem

Pennsylvania:

Casey wins - lean Dem
Someone else wins - strong Rep

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	49/56	32/56	81/112	72.3%	1	537	474	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	3/52	2/52	5/104	4.8%	5	-	264		271
2008 Rep Primary	3/49	1/49	4/98	4.1%	5	-	225	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	182	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	27/33	59/66	89.4%	7	0	7	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	31/36	65/72	90.3%	14	0	1	T	312
2004 President	55/56	42/56	97/112	86.6%	10	1	24	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	179/285	138/285	317/570	55.6%

Links

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