Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:9

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	33	26

Comments

Corrections to percentages (that I had ignored).

data electoralvote.com and this atlas' poll compliations were used.

Two things: Missouri now looks more solidly favorable to democrats than either MT or VA. And in MD, I dismiss survey USA as a probable outlier.

Unless conditions warrant, this is my last prediction.

//
addition on 11-05

generic polls were "narrowed," (three cases make a pretty strong case). A "rightward" adjustment of the four closest race will probably be needed tomorrow. Let's wait for the polls, if any will be released tomorrow.
//
addition on 11-06

last polls do not justify any changes (if anything, it moves MT out of toss-up, but that's a minor change, and MO back into toss-up, but that's still minor for 24 hr before).

Get out to vote!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	10	1	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	26/33	59/66	89.4%	1	1	4		407
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	22/52	59/104	56.7%	13	-	47	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	19/49	58/98	59.2%	14	-	15	T	235
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	26/33	59/66	89.4%	9	2	7	T	465
Aggregate Predictions	196/223	136/223	332/446	74.4%

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