Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-26 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	10
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	9
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+8	+3	+11	0	0	0	12	0	12	+11
Rep	0	0	0	-8	-3	-11	8	2	10	-11
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	36	59
Republican	10	26	36
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	30	18

Analysis

I cannot remember a Senate incumbent that fell below 50% and went on to win reelection. I think goose is cooked on the GOP. Now, the caveat is that Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi are fundamentally very conservative states, so they could easily hold on, so could Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Alaska's Ted Stevens if he gets acquitted. But most Senate classes break to one party or another.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	48/56	36/56	84/112	75.0%	14	9	382	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	4	9	172	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	345	212	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	20/52	63/104	60.6%	4	-	34	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	29/49	12/49	41/98	41.8%	4	-	91	T	235
2007 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	2	21	102	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	15/33	48/66	72.7%	9	2	207	T	465
2006 Governor	32/36	21/36	53/72	73.6%	6	2	93	T	312
2004 President	49/56	30/56	79/112	70.5%	8	9	1285	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	275/329	159/329	434/658	66.0%

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