Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
53	33	20

Analysis

Tossup = <5
Lean = 5-10
Strong = >10

Noteables

North Carolina Hagan + 3.7%
Oregon Merkley + 6.8%
Minnesota Fraken + 2.4%
Colorado Udall + 13.8%
New Mexico Udall + 15.2%
New Hampshire Shaheen + 11.7%
Alaska Begich + 17.8%
Virginia Warner + 28.8%

Maine Collins + 8.1%
Georgia Chambliss + 3.1%
McConnell 5.7%
Louisiana Lanreiu + 8.3%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	3	4	82	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	14/36	45/72	62.5%	2	1	145	T	300
2012 President	56/56	46/56	102/112	91.1%	1	2	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	1	2	40	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	24/37	58/74	78.4%	4	1	86	T	456
2010 Governor	37/37	26/37	63/74	85.1%	2	1	11	T	312
2008 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	16	2	13	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	4	2	57	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	10/11	21/22	95.5%	2	2	3	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	158	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	15	2	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	10	1	44	T	312
2004 President	49/56	33/56	82/112	73.2%	2	139	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	440/463	315/463	755/926	81.5%

Links

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