Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-08-23 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Analysis

Tantilizingly close to a filibuster-proof majority. I'm afraid it will have to wait until 2012.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-08-23 @ 03:11:25
Dole, previously thought of as safe, is no longer. MS-B, GA, & KY will be tight races as well.

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-08-30 @ 10:26:38
Wing - not your best map. I think the Dems have more of a chance in MS special election than NC. The GOP have a slight, but consistant, lead in OR, MN.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-30 @ 12:46:35
This is an enthusiastic map. Maybe, but probably not.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-09 @ 10:54:12
Have you guys seen the last few polls in NC?? Dole is in real trouble. This seat has leap-frogged MS-B, MN, & probably OR as more likely to flip, IMHO.

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2008-09-23 @ 15:59:45
The Senate wouldn't be the same without Dole. :(

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-27 @ 01:19:08
A month later, and I stand by my map. The most questionable pickup at this point is MN.

By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-09-30 @ 17:26:22
I'm gonna enjoy watching Republicans interviewed on election night. "We let the Republican Party be too closely identified with one person. The Democrats were able to connect individual Republicans to the unpopular Bush administration. We need to get back to conservative principles. Some fine public servants were defeated tonight."

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-30 @ 23:38:19
Yes! Very nice. Now SUSA, which showed "Saxby" Chambliss up by 17% 2 weeks ago, shows him up by 2. How's that for a wild swing?? My only reservation in writing the above a few days ago was depicting Georgia as a toss-up. Well, it may yet be.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-30 @ 23:54:21
That makes TEN GOP seats in play - 10! Democratic seats: still none at risk.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-10-02 @ 10:33:34
@wingindy- I think this side of the forum we will find a lot more common ground ;) Dole is in serious trouble. Notice that Grahams numbers are getting closer as are Chambliss. I'd LOVE to see Chambliss get beat, but I dont think its going to happen. The MS-B race is interesting but I think Wicker will retain it, very narrowly unless black turnout is huge from Obama. I have no idea what to make about MN? Is Franken even taken seriously? Filibuster proof, I highly doubt this year, but 2010 might bring that. I will guarantee you that Voinovich will be VERY vulnerable here in Ohio. His numbers have been under 50% since prior to DeWine's defeat. I had hoped that Tubbs-Jones would run for his seat in 2010, but her tragic death was a big blow. Marcy Kaptur might make a run for it in 2010. You might also want to watch out for Jennifer Brunner the SOS here in OHIO. If the Dem trend holds up in 2010, you will see 60.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-15 @ 00:21:15
I'd make a new map, but the prediction would remain the same. NC, OR & MN all now lean Dem. While chances of a fillibuster proof majority this year have certainly improved, I'd agree that its still an outside chance. 2010 will present a plethora of opportunities to close what will be a narrow gap - McCain retirement/Napolotino in AZ; Sebilius in KS; Jim Bunning; Grassley/Vilsack?; Chris Matthews against Spector in PA?? I'd say 60+ by 2010!

By: Aguagon (D-AZ) 2008-10-16 @ 02:36:41
Funny how just a few weeks ago, I would have called this a partisan dream map, and now it looks very realistic. Good job calling this almost two months before the polls showed it! I just hope this trend holds until election day.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-18 @ 01:52:52
No doubt, Georgia is a toss-up. Martin is actually now leading Chambliss. I may have to make a new map after all. I take back 60 being an outside shot - I put it more like a 40% chance now, with Georgia edging out MS-B as currently the most likely 60th. Last Edit: 2008-10-19 @ 02:31:30

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-27 @ 16:36:17
I thought I'd make a new map in light of Stevens' conviction to make Alaska strong Dem., but see I already have that. I'm guessing my only changes will be in confidence: NH, NJ & CO are now strong Dem., and NC & OR are lean Dem. ID, NE, OK & TN are strong GOP. I'm inclined to give Martin the win over Chambliss, but I'm going to watch it for a few days. Hillibilly & French: still think this map is over-optimistic?? :P

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