NOTABLE RACES:

Arkansas: Lincoln's actions haven't endeared herself to many Democrats and probably won't win over very many Republicans. This is also the state with the biggest swing toward McCain.

Arizona: McCain isn't all that popular with the Republican base in Arizona, as shown by his underwhelming performance in the primary last year. A poll has shown former Rep. JD Hayworth beating McCain in the primary, something that may pique the interest of the likes of former Gov. Janet Napolitana and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. If one of those two enter the race and Hayworth beats McCain, forces him out, or widens the rift, then this may be lean Democratic. Otherwise, it's lean Republican at worst.

Colorado: Bennet is, in my opinion, the second-most-likely Democratic seat to flip due to his lack of resume, difficulty at the top of the ticket (Ritter is in trouble), and a less Democratic state compared to most other endangered Democratic seats. I'm giving him the benefit right now, though.

Connecticut: Neither Simmons nor McMahon seem to be the kind of candidates that would easily pass conservative muster, something that could hurt them with the base or with moderates (should they try to go to the right). Unless this cycle gets really bad for Democrats, it's hard to see Dodd losing in a state as Democratic as Connecticut.

Delaware: The most Republican-friendly poll I've seen showed Castle only leading by five. If that's the best he can do, I don't see him winning come Election Day when Obama and Joe Biden are campaigning for Beau Biden and Democrats are (probably) winning Castle's House seat.

Florida: Can Crist survive the Republican primary? If yes, he wins. If no, we have an interesting race, especially if someone like Betty Castor gets in. If Crist decides to run as a Democrat instead, he wins.

Georgia: Solid Republican right now, but Isakson has been rumored to be the victim of a primary challenge (by maybe Rep. Paul Broun). If this successful happens and/or a bigger name Democrat gets in the race (like Attorney General Thurbert Baker or Labor Commission Michael Thurmond), this race gets competitive.

Illinois: Even with a comparatively moderate Republican with a history of winning on Democratic turf, I just don't see Obama's old seat going Republican, especially if/when said Republican gets pushed to the right in the primary.

Iowa: With some of Grassley's purported moderate veneer having been stripped away, he may get a battle in a state that typically goes Democratic, although Gov. Chet Culver isn't too popular right now, something that may hurt Conlin.

Kentucky: With Bunning now off the Republican ticket and a fairly nastly Democratic primary, I'll assume Kentucky will vote it's typical Republican leaning.

Missouri: Carnahan is a current Secretary of State from a powerful political family. Blunt has never served statewide and is the father of an unpopular former governor. Carnahan should win.

New York (B): With Schumer and Cuomo expected to dominate and New York's increasingly Democratic tilt, I think Gillibrand will win, although possible with a big challenge.

Nevada: Reid has a ton of money and his office to rely on. He's run close elections before and won.

North Carolina: Elaine Cunningham should give Burr a run for his money, but with Gov. Bev Perdue not being very popular, Obama not being on the ticket to bring out the minority/youth vote, I'd have to give the advantage to Burr right now.

Ohio: Portman's association with Bush's economic policy isn't going to help him very much in an industrial state. Both Democratic candidates are statewide office holders.

Pennsylvania: Toomey's conservatism won't play too well in a typicaly blue state. Both Specter and Sestak should beat him when it's all said and done.